New Challenges in Agricultural Statistics

1
New Challenges in Agricultural Statistics

• Haluk KasnakogluStatistics Division, FAO
• MEXSAI, Third International Conference on
  Agricultural Statistics
• 2-4 November, 2004
• Cancun, Mexico

2
Outline

• Theme of MEXSAI
• From Agricultural to Rural Development
  Indicators
• New Issues and Challenges
• FAO Activities

3
Is There a Need to Review the Domain of
Agricultural Statistics?

• Why do we ask?
• Agriculture is loosing importance so we should
  shift to other domains?
• We have exhausted agriculture and have time
  remaining to do other things?
• We could not manage agriculture and try our luck
  in other domains?
• No demand for current domains?
• The problems and issues to be addressed are
  changing?

4
Is Agriculture Getting Less Important?

• Share in Population
• Share in Labour Force
• Share in Value of Output
• Share in International Trade
• Share in Public Expenditures
• Share in Household Expenditures

5
Share of Agriculture in Population

• 42 of the world population in 2004
• 51 of the world population in 1980
• More than 40 of the total population in
  one-third of the countries.
• Between 15-40 of the total population in
  one-third of the countries
• Less than 15 in the remaining one-third of the
  countries

6
Share of Agriculture in Output Value

• Agriculture accounted for 4 of the worlds
  total GDP in 2002
• The share of agriculture in total world GDP in
  1980 was 5
• In nearly 40 of the countries the share of
  agriculture in GDP is more than 20.
• In 60 of the countries the share of agricultural
  GDP is more than 10
• In nearly quarter of the countries the share of
  agricultural GDP is less than 5

7
Share of Agriculture in Trade (X)

• Share of primary (and some first level processed)
  agricultural products in value of world trade in
  2002 was 7 as compared to 12 in the early 80s.
• In more than one-third of the countries, the
  share agricultural exports in total exports is
  more than 20.
• In nearly one-quarter of the countries on the
  other hand the share of agriculture in exports is
  less than 4.

8
Share of Agriculture in Trade (M)

• Share of agricultural imports in total import
  value is more than 20 in more than 20 of the
  countries
• Agriculture constitutes more than 10 of the
  import bill in nearly 70 of the countries
• The share of agriculture in import bill and
  export earnings substantially increase when we
  account for processed agricultural products and
  agricultural inputs.

9
Share in Public and Private Expenditures

• Share of Support to Agriculture in GDPs
• About 1.5 in OECD countries
• About 5-10 in many developing countries
• Share of Food in Household Budgets
• About 10-20 in developed countries
• About 20-40 in fast developing countries
• Over 50 in least developed countries
• Share of all agriculture related items (clothing,
  wood) is higher

10
In summary,

• Agriculture preserves its importance as an
  economic activity for populations in most
  countries
• The monetary value of agricultures output is low
  as before.
• The importance of agricultural trade in primary
  products is diminishing but that of processed
  agricultural commodities is increasing.
• Public expenditures in agriculture are in a
  downward trend
• Share in household expenditures of food and
  agricultural commodities diminishes in higher
  income countries.
• The range for importance of agriculture is large
• And

11
Few Big Players!

• 5 countries account for
• 50 of worlds GDP
• 40 of worlds agricultural GDP
• 65 of worlds agricultural population
• 50 of worlds food production (calories)
• 50 of words food consumption (calories)
• 40 of worlds agricultural exports
• 40 of world agricultural imports
• China, USA, India, Brazil, France, Germany are
  among the key players.

12
Nothing Else Left to Do in Agriculture?

• For traditional domains like production and
  yields on the supply side and land, labor,
  fertilizers and tractors on the input side may be
  yes.
• A lot more to do in other areas such as prices,
  margins, costs, incomes to name a few.
• Agricultural economists are way ahead in terms of
  research agenda and long started working with
  simulated data.
• Agricultural statisticians are way behind busy
  with fine tuning of sample frames and lost in
  micro issues.

13
Less Demand for Agricultural Statistics?

• Unfortunately Yes, because
• What is produced is not what is demanded
• Timeleness
• The Golden Rule
• Not rich in data points to feed new advances in
  statistics and econometrics
• Agricultural policy makers are not interested in
  agricultural statistics.

14
So.

• There is a lot to do in the area of agricultural
  statistics both at the national and international
  levels.
• Nevertheless there is a need for re-aligning
  agricultural statistics to new problems and user
  requirements.
• Agricultural and rural statistics are not
  alternatives but could complement each other.
• There is a need for statisticians focusing on
  both but not in the expense of the other.

15
Routes for Expansion

• Agriculture to Rural
• Why Rural? Because of Agriculture Production?
• Supply Oriented
• What is Rural
• Resources to Production
• Economic Accounts
• Input-Output and SAM
• Producer to Consumer
• Consumer is the other actor
• Consumers are in the rural as well as urban areas
• Agriculture to Agro-Industry
• This is where the value added occurs
• Connection between production and consumption
• Agriculture to Related Non-Agriculture
• Forward and Backward Linkages
• Integrating Agriculture to Rest of Economy

16
Some more thoughts...

• One of the problems with agricultural statistics
  has been the concentration on the supply side and
  the producer and neglect of the demand side and
  the consumer.
• The shift in emphasis from agriculture to rural
  statistics as opposed to the other alternative
  routes could be a continuation of this old
  lasting problem.
• One of the problems with agricultural policies
  and contributing to their inefficiencies have
  been the confusion of targets between agriculture
  and rural development.
• Neither all rural problems can expected to be
  solved through agricultural policy nor would
  agricultural policy be the most efficient way to
  tackle all rural development issues.
• Shifting the focus by agricultural statisticians
  to rural statistics can also contribute to this
  confusion and inefficiency in both agricultural
  and rural development policies.

17
New Issues and Challenges

• Wider Scope of Agricultural Statistics
• Agriculture is covered when the supply, demand
  and the market issues are addressed
  simultaneously
• Agriculture is integrated to the rest of the
  economy and cannot be studied in isolation
• Nations are integrated to the rest of the world
  and cannot be studied in isolation
• Micro-Data and Confidentiality
• Everybody wants micro-data but nobody wants to
  share theirs with others
• Quality of Statistics
• Quality of statistics depends on the quality at
  the source, processing and the user levels.
• Meta Data
• With internet there is an inflation of
  information and statistics from different sources
  with different definitions and quality and many
  times not differentiable due to limited meta
  data.
• Common Definitions and Classifications
• A must for integration of information at all
  levels

18
What FAO is doing?

• Reviewing Conceptual Framework
• Integration to the International Statistical
  System
• Modernization of FAOSTAT
• New Product CountryStat
• New Approach to Agricultural Censuses
• Multi-Layered Quality Assessment and Monitoring

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FAOSTAT Conceptual Framework
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Integration to International Statistical System

• Review of Agriculture Related Classifications
• HS, CPC, ISIC
• Others (Occupation, Resources, Country, etc)
• Collaboration in Compilation and Processing
• Trade UNSD, OECD, FAO
• Labour ILO
• Data/Knowledge Exchange

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New FAOSTAT - January 2006
22
An Example FAOSTAT Module
23
CountryStat 9 Pilots in 2005
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New Agricultural Census Framework
25
New Census from Country Perspective
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FAO Statistical Data Quality Framework
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Thank you......

• I invite you to visit the
• FAO Statistics DivisionWeb Page
• www.fao.org/es/ess/
• for our work on these new initiatives
• and the FAOSTAT Web Page
• www.fao.org/faostat/
• to follow the progress in FAOSTAT and CountryStat.