Title: Disclaimer
1Disclaimer
The material contained in this PPT is a raw
model output and research product. This is meant
for scientific use. For any clarification/interpre
tation, please contact India Meteorological
Department.
2INITIAL CONDITION 5th July 2015
Working group on Extended Range Prediction
Ministry of Earth Sciences, Govt. of India
3- This MME forecast has been prepared using the CFS
(T126 T382) and GFSbc (T126 T382) (each 11
members) .
Real-time forecast based on 5th July 2015 initial
condition
4Daily evolution of rainfall and wind at 850hPa
(by MME)
5Daily evolution of vorticity at 850hPa and mean
sea level pressure (by MME)
6Daily evolution of minimum and maximum
temperature (by MME)
7Daily evolution of minimum and maximum
temperature Anomaly (by MME)
8Predicted pentad wise temperature anomaly (by MME)
9Daily evolution of divergence and winds at 200hPa
and 500mb Geopotential Height (by MME)
10Predicted pentad wise rainfall (by MME)
11MISO monitoring and forecast for next 25 days
12Area averaged rainfall over homogeneous regions
predicted by MME
13Area averaged rainfall over MZI region predicted
by MME
14Area averaged rainfall over CEI region predicted
by MME
15Area averaged rainfall over NEI region predicted
by MME
16Area averaged rainfall over NWI region predicted
by MME
17Area averaged rainfall over SPI region predicted
by MME
18Key points from the present forecast
- The next 20 days forecast indicates that
- 1) Rainfall, MSLP and other charts indicate that
the monsoon activity will be largely subdued over
Indian landmass for next 20 days except foothills
of Himalayas. Continuous rainfall along the
foothills may increase the water level in the
rivers of North India. - 2) The forecast during July indicates that there
will be absence of large scale monsoon system
resulting in below normal rainfall during July. - 3) MISO associated convective activity is
expected to form over Indian ocean after 10-15
days and likely to move towards Central India
around 25th July. - 4) MJO associated strong convection over Western
Pacific may weaken after 15 days and may enhance
the convective activity over Indian land after 20
days.
19MISO forecast and its verification
20Thanks..