U'S' EPA DISCLAIMER

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U.S. EPA DISCLAIMER

• EPA strongly cautions that these study results
  should not be used to draw conclusions about
  local exposure concentrations or risk. The
  results are most meaningful when viewed at the
  regional or county level for smaller areas, the
  study becomes less certain. In addition, these
  results represent conditions in 1999 rather than
  current conditions and only include exposures
  from outdoor sources of particulate matter.
• The results provide answers to questions about
  emissions, ambient air concentrations, exposures
  and risks across broad geographic areas for the
  year 1999. As such, they help the EPA identify
  specific air toxics compounds, and specific
  source sectors such as stationary sources or
  mobile sources, which generally produce the
  highest exposures and risks in the country. But
  they also are based on assumptions and methods
  that limit the range of questions that can be
  answered reliably. They cannot be used to
  identify exposures and risks for specific
  individuals, or even to identify exposures and
  risks in small geographic regions such as a
  specific neighborhood. These limitations, or
  caveats, must always be kept in mind when
  interpreting the results. The results should be
  used only to address questions for which the
  assessment methods are suited.
• All risk estimates are based on exposure
  estimates for the median individual within each
  census tract, which EPA considers to be a
  "typical" exposure. Some individuals may have
  substantially higher or lower exposures based on
  where they spend their time. The study is not
  designed to quantify these individual extremes.

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The Diesel Difference

• Álvaro Alvarado, Ph.D.
• Environmental Protection Agency

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BenMAP

• Air Quality Modeling
• Health Impacts Epidemiology
• Valuation

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Air Quality Modeling

• 1999 National Air Toxics Assessment
• Non-road and On-road diesel PM
• Study Area
• Philadelphia
• Delaware
• Montgomery
• Chester
• Bucks

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Air Pollution and Health

• Donora, PA October 30-31, 1948
• 20 people dead
• 7,000 Hospitalized Half the population
• London Fog December 5-9, 1952
• 12,000 people dead
• Transportation disrupted
• Prize winning cattle dead

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EpidemiologyAmerican Cancer Society Study

• 1.2 Million participants
• 1982 - 1998
• Controlled for Age, gender, weight, smoking
  history, alcohol use, occupation, diet, education
• Each 10 µg/m3 PM
• 4 increase in all cause mortality
• 6 increase in lung cancer
• 8 increase in fatal heart attacks

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Pre-Mature Deaths
Pope A.C., et al. 2002. Lung cancer,
cardiopulmonary mortality, and long-term exposure
to fine particulate air pollution. JAMA, vol.
287, no. 9, 1132-1141.
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Asthma Attacks
Bucks 330
Chester 190
Delaware 510
Montgomery 410
Philadelphia 2300
Vedal, S. et al. 1998. Acute effects of ambient
inhalable particles in asthmatic and
non-asthmatic children. Am. J of Respiratory and
Critical Care Medicine. 157(4)1034-1043.  Ostro,
B. et al. 2001. Air pollution and exacerbation
of asthma in African-American children in Los
Angeles. Epidemiology. 12(2)200-208.
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Non-Fatal Heart Attacks
Ostro, B.D. 1987. Air pollution and morbidity
revisited A speciation test. J of Environ
Economics Management. 1487-98.
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Work Loss Days
Bucks 2,800
Chester 1,600
Delaware 4,000
Philadelphia 20,000
Montgomery 3,700
Ostro, B.D. 1987. Air pollution and morbidity
revisited A speciation test. J of Environ
Economics Management. 1487-98.
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Work Loss Days
Ostro, B.D. 1987. Air pollution and morbidity
revisited A speciation test. J of Environ
Economics Management. 1487-98.
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Particulate MatterWorth Its Weight in Gold

• 260 Premature deaths
• 450 Non-fatal heart attacks
• 32,000 Missed days of work
• 3,700 Asthma attacks

• Valued at 1.4 billion
• Cost 37 million
• 4.4 million in lost wages
• Valued at 160,000

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Particulate MatterWorth Its Weight in Gold

• Willingness to pay
• Cost of illness
• Lost wages

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Willingness to Pay

• Standard regulatory approach
• Value of small reduction in risk
• Based on peer-reviewed studies
• Interviews
• Market forces Peoples willingness to accept
  risk for higher wages

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Willingness to Pay

• Mortality
• Asthma
• Acute bronchitis

• 5.5 Million
• 42 to prevent Bad asthma day
• 360 to prevent 6 day episode

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Cost of IllnessMedical costs, lost wages

• Non-fatal Heart Attacks
• Hospital Admissions
• Asthma ER visits

• Age dependent 66k to 140K
• Depends on illness 12,378 to 18,387
• 286

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Lost Wages

• Data from 2000 Census
• Median Income by County
• Bucks 39,286
• Chester 43,039
• Delaware 37,993
• Montgomery 41,894
• Philadelphia 31,338

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How good are the results?

• Uncertainties
• Modeling
• Epidemiology
• Valuation

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• To know that even one life has breathed easier
  because you lived this is to have succeeded.
• Ralph Waldo Emerson