China's Soft Diplomacy in an Emerging Multi-polar World

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China's Soft Diplomacy in an Emerging
Multi-polar World

• Keynote presentation for the conference"The
  Growing Prominence of China on the World Stage
  Exploring the Political, Economic, and Cultural
  Relations of China and Global Stakeholders"
  International Conference, Berlin, September 15th
  - 18th, 2011 - Held Parallel to the "Berlin -
  Asia Pacific Weeks Conference 2011
• Johannes Dragsbaek Schmidt
• Associate Professor, Research Center on
  Development and International Relations, Aalborg
  University AAU, Fibigerstraede 2, 9220 Aalborg
  East, Denmark. Tel. [phone], Fax. 45
  98153298 Email. jds_at_cgi.aau.dk http//personprofil
  .aau.dk/107471

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New map of the world?
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• A Multi-polar world
• US unsustainable debt burden and political
  paralysis strategic decision-making held
  hostage to ideological polarization Pentagon
  the biggest security threat The crisis and
  budget deficit
• EU single currency threatened by sovereign debt
  and political discord European integration
  project in dismay
• Result
• Relative decline of Western hegemony or a new
  Great Depression and the resurgence of
  nationalism and protectionism! Or a new peaceful
  transition to a multi-polar world!

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• Strong Economy Basis of Soft Power
• It seems clear that the Chinese leadership
  attempts to increase its ability to attract and
  persuade the world community, regional groups and
  individual states to comply with its interests by
  utilizing among other foreign policy and security
  instruments soft power

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Components of Chinese Security Strategy

• Leverage Rhetoric on Cooperation/Noninterference
• Pragmatic
• Born-again multilateralist - relative
• Focus on countries where US bilateral
  relationship is faltering outreach to developing
  nations
• China as a model for developing nations

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Chinas Strategic Thought

• Jiang Zemin
• Multi-polar world
• Economic globalization
• Globalist
• Hu Jintao
• Peaceful Rise
• Harmonius World
• Economic Nationalism
• Confucianism

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Soft Power

• Soft power is the ability to shape what others
  want through attraction, not through coercion
• Soft power arises from the attractiveness of a
  country's culture, political ideals, and
  policies and the mastery of institutions and
  information technologies to disseminate
  persuasive information is linked to soft power.
  Hard power remains crucial in a world of states
  trying to guard their independence and of
  non-state groups willing to turn to violence
  (Joseph Nye)

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Chinas Perception

• Soft power requires the projection of an
  attractive and friendly image
• A champion for the developing world in
  international organizations
• A model for the developing world (Beijing
  consensus vs. Washington consensus)
• As a central actor in a multi-polar world
• As an ancient and vigorous civilization -
  Confucianism

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How Chinas Soft Power Strategy Emerges

• -Domestic changes in China lead to pressure for a
  more proactive foreign policy
• -Chinese leadership more engaged with the world
• -Failure of more aggressive mid-1990s policies
• -Impact of Asian financial crisis and beginning
  of American soft power decline
• -China is using 'soft power' remedies and hard
  cash to nurture 'alliances with developing
  countries to solidify its position in the World
  Trade Organization, flex its muscles on the world
  stage and act as a counterbalance to US power'

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Means for the projection of China's soft power

• Visits of Chinese authorities and international
  events
• Very active agenda (Olympics etc)
• State media
• Service in six languages (Global media)
• Active cultural and education diplomacy
• Scholarships for studying in China
• Confucius Institute (150 around the globe)
• Target of raising number of foreigners studying
  Mandarin around the world to 100 million (30
  million people worldwide today)

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Chinese Tools of Influence

• More sophisticated development assistance
• Better public diplomacy media, informal
  summitry, visitor programming, Chinese Peace
  Corps
• More skilled formal diplomacy
• Outreach to and use of ethnic Chinese
• Promotion of Chinese language and culture studies
• Promotion of Chinas future potential for outward
  investment
• Leveraging FTAs
• Outmigration
• UN UNSC Peace keeping
• SCO and G20 . G2

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Strong points of China's soft power

• Coherent rhetoric
• Traditional culture inventions, philosophy, fine
  arts, martial arts
• Language 100 million students of Mandarin in
  2010
• Chinese diaspora
• Economic success

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Weak points of China's soft power

• Authoritarian regime high domestic legitimacy
  low external legitimacy
• Corruption and human rights
• Uncertainty about sustainability of economic and
  social model
• Loose business ethics quality standards
• Limited circulation of China's culture (music,
  arts etc)
• Notion about Confucian influence not clear

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Impact and some conclusions

• Positive China becomes regional leader by
  mediating disputes
• Positive China takes lead on nontraditional
  transnational issues
• Positive China prods regional free trade
• Negative China exporting its labor and
  environmental practices
• Negative Chinese aid undermining tying of aid to
  better governance, and US influence on
  authoritarian nations Weakens US promotion of
  democratization and good governance
• Negative China could eventually use influence to
  push back at American relationships in SE Asia
• Negative Potential structures in the region
  exclude US
• All in all a change in US policy towards China
  from a friendly competitor to a strategic rival

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• China has shown a definite readiness to use its
  growing soft power, notably economic leverage and
  national image and the benefits that accrue from
  non-material, ideational and cultural influences
  as a persuasive means to translate its influence
  into concrete policy interests
• Beijing's security concept can also be
  interpreted as aiming at undermining US influence
  and loosen its alliances
• The figures imply that there is a clear strategic
  link between trade, FDI, ODA, military support
  and a specific focus on export of cultural values
  (FDI 220bn in 2010)
• Soft power will also have important spill-over
  effects on future trade and investment patterns
  striking cut-price deals playing off states
  against each other and against their own
  collective interest