Evaluating Causal Explanations

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Evaluating Causal Explanations
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Fallacies in Causal Reasoning   Confusing
Correlation and Cause   a.                
Coincidence   Example   Holland's birthrate
and the number of stork's nesting in chimneys.  
Example   An individual's level of literacy
and their participation in volunteer work  
b.                 Symmetry   Example  
          time spent in hospital and risk of
death.  
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c.                 Common cause   Example  
          El Nino effect and drought in
Australia   Example   shoe-size and quality
of handwriting have a common cause maturity.  
d.                 Reflexivity   Example  
chicken and egg   e.                
Insignificance
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Similar fallacy with Sufficient Condition Test
and Necessary Condition Test.   Example  
homosexual males have a certain brain property
X. (women and homosexual men registered a
reaction in the anterior hypothalamus when tested
with 4, 16-androstadien-3-one, but women and
heterosexual men did not.)   Post Hoc Ergo
Propter Hoc   After this therefore because of
this
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Evaluation of Explanations    
a.                 Plausibility.
  b.                 Power.  
c.                 Simplicity.   Occams
Razor   Example   Ptolemaic and the
Copernican theories.
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d.                 Generality. Example  
South America Africa Continental Drift -
distribution of flora and fauna.  
e.                 Modesty.   Example  
Continental Drift - What could be more solid
than a mountain range?   Example   Lyells
geology
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Criticism of Theories   a.  Is there something
to explain?   Example   Global warming are
the Pacific islands sinking?   b. Is there a
plausible alternative theory?   Example  
AGW again - solar activity
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c. Are the theorys predictions good?   Example
  Michelson-Morley experiment          
Example   AGW again - warming will occur
first in the atmosphere   d. Does the defence
of the theory seem rather ad hoc?   Example  
Epicycles in Ptolemaic astronomy. Saving the
appearances.   e. Is the theory testable?