????????????????(turning point),????????????

1
????????

• ?????? ??
• ???????
• ????/?????????

2
????

• ????????????????(turning point),????????????

3
????

• 1.???(surprise)????,?????
• 2.????????
• 3.????????????
• 4.????????????
• 5.???????????

4
?????

• 
  CostPossibility
• DSR(c,f,t,) ?
• Time
• D??(Crisis)
• R??(??)(Risk)
• c???????????(Cost)
• f???? (Frequency)
• t?????????(Time)
• P?????????(Possibility) 

5
????

• ????
• ????????(??)?????
• ????
• ?????????
• ????
• ????(??)?????(??)

6
????(Otto Lerbinger,1997)

• 1.??????,??,??
• 2.??????????,?????,
• 3.????????,????
• 4.???? ????,????
• 5.?????????,???
• 6. ??????????????
• 7.????????30????

7
??????Steven Fink(1987)

• ??????,????
• ????????
• ???????
• ??????????
• ?????????
• ????????????
• ??????????????
• ??????
• ????????
• ???????????
• ?????

8
?????????

•  

9
??????

• FEMA????
• ??(mitigation)?
• ??(preparedness)?
• ??(response)?
• ??(recovery)??????????????????????

10
?????????

• ????????????????
• ???????????????
• ????
• ??????,??????????
• ??????????????
• ?????????????

11
????????

• ???????????? ?
• ??????????
• ??????????????
• ?????
• ?????????????
• ????

12
????????

1. ????,????,???????.
2. ???????????????.
3. ??????????????.
4. ????????????.

13
????????

1. ??????????.
2. ??????,???????.
3. ??????/??????(??)
4. ????????????
5. ??????/??????
6. ??????/??????
7. ????????

14
921?????????

• ????
• ?????,????????
• ??????,?????
• ????
• ???????
• ??????????
• ?????????
• ????
• ?????????
• ????????????

15
????(Defective Decision Making)

• ???????????????
• ???????????
• ????????????
• ???????????
• ?????????????????????
• ?????????????????
• ?????????????????????

???? Janis, Mann, Decision Making A
Psychological Analysis of
Conflict, Choice, and Commitment. New York Free
Press, 1997.
16
(No Transcript)
17
????????(Decision Types Methods)
?????? ???? ????(single criterion) ????(multi criteria)
????(certainty) I.??? (computation) III.???(compromise)
?????(uncertainty) II.???(judgment) IV.???(inspiration)
????Zeleny, Multicriteria Decision Making,
????,1992?
18
????????(coping pattern)

• ????
• ??1??????,??????
• ??2??????,??????
• ??3???????????????????
• ??4?????????????????
• ????????????
• ?.????(unconflicted adherence)
• ?.????(unconflicted change)
• ?.?????(defensive avoidance)
• ?.????(hypervigilance)

19
(No Transcript)
20
??????????

• 1. ???????
• 2. ???????
• 3. ????????  

21
??????????

• ???????
• ?????
• ???????????
• ?????
• ?????,??????????
• ?????????????????
• ??????????????
• ??????????????

22
??????????

• ????
• ???????
• ??????????????
• ???????????
• ??????????????????
• ????????5080??
• ???????????
• ??????????????????

23
??????????????

• ??????( Ask the reporter's name. )
• ??????( Use your full name. )
• ????( Choose the site-if possible.)
• ????( Choose the time-if possible )
• ????( Be calm )
• ???( Tell the truth )
• ???? ( Be cooperative )
• ????( Be professional )
• ????( Be patient )
• ????( Take your time )
• ????( Use wrap-around sentences )

24
??????? ????????(?)

• ?????? (Say "no comment)
• ????(Give your personal opinion)
• ??????(Go off the record)
• ??(Lie )
• ??(Bluff)
• ????(Be evasive)
• ??????(Repeat leading questions).
• ??????(Use jargon).

25
??????? ????????(?)

• ????(Be defensive)
• ????(Be afraid)
• ??(Confront).
• ????????(Try to talk and command a disaster at
  the same time.)
• ?????(Wear sunglasses).
• ??(Smoke).
• ???????(Promise results or speculate)
• ?????(Respond to rumors).

26
??(?) ????????

• ????,???????????????
• ??????????
• ???????????
• ????
• ????
• ????

27
??(?) ??????

• ?????????
• ????????????
• ???????/??

28
??(?) ??????

• ??????,????????????,???????
• ???????,?????????????
• ?????????????
• ???????????????
• ?????????????,???????????

29
????,????!
????,????,?????????.