The vital new artery to ease pressure and seize the opportunities surging daily in our premier world city Tomorrow

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The vital new artery to ease pressure and seize
the opportunities surging daily in our premier
world city Tomorrows Rail Michele Dix08
July 2015
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The case for growing London rests on the benefits
for the UK of having a leading world city
London tops the global competitiveness
league Its agglomeration of high value services
and international connections make it uniquely
well placed to act as the UKs gateway to the
rest of the world, attracting investment, trade
and visitors to the benefit of the whole country
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UK population is growing...

• 64.1 million people in the UK (ONS, mid-2013)
• UK population projected to increase to 73.3
  million by mid-2037
• The highest average annual growth rate is
  expected in England

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Londons population is growing...
By 2050, Londons population will exceed 11
million people.
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Distribution of growth

• Growth will not be uniform across London
• Population growth will be greatest in east London
• Employment growth will be greatest in West End,
  City and Canary Wharf (business and other
  services, finance, tourism, retail)

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Londons transport challenge
The Missing Gap
Significant investment already planned in public
transport infrastructure across London though
there remains a clear gap
Crossrail 2 corridor
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Crossrail 2 A potted history
Year Output Outcome
1944 GLP Concept of a cross London tunnelled rail service introduced.
1974 London Rail Study Chelsea-Hackney Underground line identified as possible scheme to serve future demand
1989 Central London Rail Study Continued support for Chelsea-Hackney line as part of wider need for additional rail capacity
1991 Safeguarding Chelsea-Hackney line adopted and directions issued
2000 London East-West study Recommended further study to look into feasibility of Chelsea-Hackney to be delivered post-Crossrail
2002-2008 Continued investigation Ongoing engineering feasibility, planning and optioneering work on Chelsea-Hackney line.
2008 Crossrail Royal Assent Crossrail Bill becomes a Parliamentary Act
2008 Safeguarding refresh Safeguarding directions for Chelsea-Hackney line updated
2009 DfT requests Mayor TfL review scheme TfL to review case for scheme, identifying new options in light of emerging London transport (MTS) and land-use (London Plan) policy, and to refresh safeguarding
2010 / 2011 TfL and NR policy support MTS supports new rail capacity in SW-NE corridor. NR emphasise in South East RUS crowding on SWML and WAML could be reduced by Crossrail 2
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Crossrail 2 route

• 200 250m long, NR type trains
• 6.4 diameter tunnels (like Crossrail)
• High frequency trains up to every 120 seconds
• Could use new rail signalling technology to allow
  automatic train control in core tunnel
• Addresses key NR capacity gaps, especially on
  South Western Main Line
• Serves key London growth areas in Upper Lea
  Valley
• Serves more of London and beyond

Upper Lea Valley OA
CAZ zone
Some stations omitted for clarity
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Crossrail 2 Why do we need Crossrail 2?

• London is growing rapidly
• To accommodate the growth, Crossrail 2 can unlock
  new areas for growth Upper Lea Valley,
  supporting delivery of up to 200,000 new homes
  across London and the South East
• Crossrail 2 can also support economic growth, by
  providing more transport capacity to the Central
  London CAZ
• Crossrail 2 delivers substantial crowding relief
  to the Underground and to National Rail lines
  across the South East, e.g. South West Main Line
  into Waterloo and West Anglia Main Line into
  Liverpool Street

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Safeguarding consultation
The previously safeguarded alignment has changed
New portal location proposed just south of
Tottenham Hale station
Current
Previous
Proposed extension to New Southgate
Angel to Tottenham Hale and Seven Sisters via
Dalston Junction
A potential branch from Angel to Hackney, which
could form part of a future eastern branch
Victoria to Angel via Tottenham Court Road and
Euston St Pancras
Wimbledon Clapham Junction via Tooting Broadway
and Kings Road
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The preferred option has been assessed against
the following alternatives
Alternative Scheme Summary Capacity Change
National Rail Alternative (Do Minimum ) Package of on-network works, with key focus on capacity upgrade on the Southwest mainline (SWML) and West Anglia mainline (WAML) lines.
Metro Scheme New, high frequency, high capacity tunnelled system across London between New Southgate and Wimbledon 10 increase in central zone (zone 1 area) for LU
Metro Mix of alternatives 1 and 2 with four tracking beyond Coppermill Junction to Liverpool Street 10 increase in central zone (zone 1 area) for LU 20-25 increase in WAML services to Stratford and Liverpool street
Crossrail 2 Regional Scheme (preferred option) New, high frequency, high capacity tunnelled system across London which connects into SWML at Wimbledon and WAML at Tottenham Hale 60 increase overall on SWML routes into Central London 12 increase in zone 1 area for LU/ NR capacity 50 increase on WAML services to Stratford and Liverpool Street
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Transport infrastructure requirements
NR upgrade(4-tracking...)
11 underground stations 3 surface
stations shafts for ventilation, intervention
and evacuation 2km spacing between
stations main depot in theWimbledon
area
NR upgrade(6-tracking...)
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The Crossrail 2 regional scheme delivers benefits
across London and the wider southeast region
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Housing potential along Crossrail 2 route

• 60,000 new homes currently planned in a do
  minimum scenario without Crossrail 2
• Crossrail 2 can unlock and deliver up to 200,000
  homes above what would be delivered in a
  do-minimum scenario
• The total additional capacity of the line could
  physically support twice as much growth up to
  400,000 new homes
• Greatest opportunities for growth linked to major
  growth areas Upper Lea Valley and Outer London
  

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Crossrail 2 jobs

• Supports up to 200,000 new jobs
• Supports 60,000 construction sector and supply
  chain jobs across the UK

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Potential distribution of Crossrail 2
construction spend across the UK
Based on experience of Crossrail, Crossrail 2 has
significant potential to support UK economy

• Benefits to UK from CR1 supply chain
• 97 of CR1 contracts awarded to UK based
  businesses
• 75,000 opportunities for businesses
• Supporting 55,000 FTEs
• 62 suppliers based outside London
• 58 are small and medium sized businesses.

Crossrail 2 is a bigger scheme meaning benefits
to UK through supply chain will be bigger !
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Crossrail 2 Funding and finance options

• Project cost 27bn with 66 Optimism Bias
• Mix of public and private investment as with
  Crossrail 1
• Central government grant
• Borrowing against future revenue, e.g. fares,
  other revenue streams
• Development contributions and opportunities for
  over-site development
• Business rates
• Other sources?

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Local sources can meet 50 of the funding
requirement
Local funding sources can meet over half the
circa 27bn cost using measures already in place
and generating funds

• Government contribution would be met by
• Stamp duty increases from new houses
• Net increases in GVA

Source PwC Funding and Finance Study
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Future indicative programme to delivery

• 2015/2016
• Continued development of the scheme including
  more detailed station studies, stakeholder
  engagement and public consultations.
• Summer 2015
• Ongoing refinement of the business case and
  funding study, including the submission of 5
  case Business Case to the Government.
• 2015 onwards
• Commencing work on the various environmental and
  other assessments.
• Late 2017
• Target date for submission of application for
  Powers.
• 2020
• Commence construction.
• 2030
• Crossrail 2 complete