Tactical Voting

1
Tactical Voting
2
Lesson Objectives

• I will get the opportunity to analyse election
  results for evidence of potential tactical voting
• I will get the opportunity to express an informed
  view on why people might vote tactically in the
  next election

3
Tactical Voting

• On the next slide, you will see two results from
  the 2010 election
• As you look at them, think about the following
  (copy down)
• What is fair about them?
• What is unfair about them?
• Why might Conservative voters in Stirling and
  Labour voters in Perth, think about voting a
  different party in 2015?

4
General Election 2010

• Stirling
• ANNE MCGUIRE - Labour 19,558 Elected
• BOB DALRYMPLE Lib Dem 11,204
• ALISON LINDSAY SNP 8,091
• GRAHAM REED - Conservatives 6,797

Perth PETE WISHART - SNP
19,118 Elected PETER LYBURN Conservative
14,739 JAMIE GLACKIN - Labour 7,923 PETER
BARRETT - Lib Dems 5,954
5
Tactical Voting

• What is tactical voting?
• It is where someone votes for the party who are
  most likely to defeat their fiercest rival when
  their own party has no chance of winning.
• It happens under our First Past the Post system
  as only one person can win, with votes for losing
  candidates not counting.

6
How many people vote tactically?

• Dr Stephen Fisher at Oxford University, believes
  the power of tactical voting should not be
  under-estimated.
• He estimated in 2010 up to 9 of voters voted
  tactically, influencing the results of about 45
  seats in the process.

7
Tactical Voting

• Around 37 of people polled before the 2010
  election said they would consider voting
  tactically.
• Peter Hain, a Labour minister, called for his
  voters to vote intelligently.
• The Conservatives tried to get Liberal Democrats
  to help them oust Ed Balls, a key member of the
  Labour government. Operation Castration nearly
  worked, with Ed Balls winning by only 1,000
  votes.

8
2015

• The Tories are in second place in 38 of the Lib
  Dems' 57 seats
• Lib Dem support has dropped significantly in many
  areas around the country
• 1) Why should these facts worry Labour going into
  the 2015 election but hearten the Conservatives?
• 2) What do you think Labour supporters will need
  to seriously consider doing come the 2015
  election?

9
2015

• Why should these facts worry Labour going into
  the 2015 election but hearten the Conservatives?
• If the Conservative take some of these seats, it
  will put them in a strong position to win the
  next election, potentially with a majority
• What do you think Labour supporters will need to
  seriously consider doing come the 2015 election?
• If Labour is to prevent the Tories from
  decapitating scores of Lib Dems, it will need to
  consider whether to advise its supporters to cast
  tactical votes.

10
Conclusion

• Tactical voting has become more of an influence
  in recent elections with the rise of the Liberal
  Democrats
• However it is only really an influencing factor
  in elections that use a winner take all system