Disclaimer

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Disclaimer
The material contained in this PPT is a raw
model output and research product. This is meant
for scientific use. For any clarification/interpre
tation, please contact India Meteorological
Department.
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INITIAL CONDITION 19th August 2015
Working group on Extended Range Prediction
Ministry of Earth Sciences, Govt. of India
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• This MME forecast has been prepared using the CFS
  (T126 T382) and GFSbc (T126 T382) (each 11
  members) .

Real-time forecast based on 19th August 2015
initial condition
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Daily evolution of rainfall and wind at 850hPa
(by MME)
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Daily evolution of vorticity at 850hPa and mean
sea level pressure (by MME)
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Daily evolution of minimum and maximum
temperature (by MME)
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Daily evolution of minimum and maximum
temperature Anomaly (by MME)
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Predicted pentad wise temperature anomaly (by MME)
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Daily evolution of divergence and winds at 200hPa
and 500mb Geopotential Height (by MME)
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Predicted pentad wise rainfall (by MME)
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MISO monitoring and forecast for next 25 days
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Area averaged rainfall over homogeneous regions
predicted by MME
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Area averaged rainfall over MZI region predicted
by MME
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Area averaged rainfall over CEI region predicted
by MME
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Area averaged rainfall over NEI region predicted
by MME
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Area averaged rainfall over NWI region predicted
by MME
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Area averaged rainfall over SPI region predicted
by MME
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Key points from the present forecast

• The next 20 days forecast indicates that
• Rainfall, MSLP and other charts indicate that the
  development of large scale convective activity
  over Indian land mass will be hampered due to the
  presence of two cyclonic systems over western
  Pacific and weak monsoon condition will continue
  for the next 10-15 days.
• Forecast indicates that the ENSO-effect seems to
  dominate for the remaining days of August and
  first week of September. Rainfall activity will
  be mainly confined to the Eastern part of India
  and Southern Peninsula.
• In this scenario, stress on water resources is
  expected to increase over most parts of the
  country.

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MISO forecast and its verification
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MISO forecast and its verification
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MISO forecast and its verification
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Thanks..