CRM???(?:????)

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??????????????????????

• CRM???(?????)
• 2002?9?18?(?)
• ???? ????

2
????

• ???????
• ??????????????????/???????????????????????????????
  ????????????????
• ???????????????????????????
• ?????????????
• ????????????????????????????(SBU)?????????????????
  ??????????????????????????????(Nielsen Marketing
  Research 1992)????????????
• 1990?????????????????????????????

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?????

• ?????
• ?????????????????????????????????????
• ?????????????????????
• ???????????????????????????CRM????????
• ??CRM???????
• CRM??????????????????????????????????(How????Why??
  ???)?
• ?????????????????????????(????????????)
• ??????????????????CRM??????????????????

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????????????????????????????
?????
???
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????????????????
???Niches ???????????????????????
? ? ???? ? ?
??Staples ??????????????????
??Fill-ins ????????????????????????????
???Necessities ???????????????????????
? ? ???(???) ? ?
Blattberg and Fox(1995)
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?????????!
????????????
????
????????? ???????? ???????????????
???
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???????????????3????

• A??????????????A??????????????????????????????????
  A????????????????????????????????
• ?????????????????????????????????????????????????
  ???????????????????
• ???????????????????????????????????2??????

8
?????

• ??
• ?????????????????????2????????????
• ?????
• ??A2001?4?????6???
• ??B2000?4?????5???
• ?????????
• ??????????????????
• ??A??????????????5???224?????
• ??B??????????????5???212?????
• ?????
• ??A?????????5400?(????????????????????)
• ??B?????????3647?(????????????????????)

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(No Transcript)
10
?????????Double Jeopardy (DJ)

• ?????????(Double Jeopardy DJ)????????????????????
  ???????????????????????????
• DJ?????????????????????????
• ??????????????????DJ???????????????
• ??????????????????????????????????(???????)????
  ????????????????(????????)???????????????
• Double Jeopardy????????
• ???????????????????????
• ????(??TV)????????????????????

11
Double Jeopardy??(????)
12
??DJ?????????????????

• Bernoulli Trial (ex.) ?????????
• W(1-b)constant
• Dirichlet model, Negative Multinomial model)

Buy the product twice a year Purchase Prob. Per Capital Sales Buying at Least Once Av. Purchases Per Buyer of Brand
BrandA .7 1.4 91 1.54
BranB .3 .6 51 1.18
Ehrenberg, Goodhardt and Barwise(1990)
13
??????????A
14
??????????B
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???????????A
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???????????B
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(No Transcript)
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(No Transcript)
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?????????????

• ????????????
• ???????????????????
• Double Jeopardy ?
• ?????????????????
• ???????????????????????
• ??????????(???)??
• ?????????????

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???????????(1)

• ??
• N??????
• bi?????i???
• wi?????i????(?????i????)
• bij?????j??????????i???
• wij?????j?????????i????
• ??
• ??1????????????????????????????????????????
• ??21?????1??????????1??????????
• ??3?????????????????
• ??4??????????????????

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???????????(2)

• x,y,z?3??????????
• ??2??
• ?????x?????????????
• ?????y?????????????

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???????????(3)

• ??1,3,4??
• ?????

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(No Transcript)
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???UP?????UP??
?SM??????????????????
???????????????w(1-b)const.????????????? (???UP??
???UP)
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(No Transcript)
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(No Transcript)
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???????????(4)

• wx(1-bx)constant law
• ?????Ehrenberg(1972)??????????????????????????????
  ??????????
• ??1?????????????????????????????????
• Kahn et.al. (1988)
• wx(1-bx)????????????????
• ????????gtNiche(Loyal)
• ????????gtChange-of-Pace(Variety Seeking)

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???????????(5)

• w(1-b)constant?wx(1-bx)?????????
• ???????????wy(1-by)gtw(1-b)?????
• ???????????????????????????????????????????
• byltb????????????????????????????????????????
• ???????????wy(1-by)ltw(1-b)?????
• wyltw?????????????????????????????????????????????
  
• bygtb????????????????????????????????????????????
• ???
• ??????????????????????????????(???????????????????
  ??????)?

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?????????(1)
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?????????(2)

• ?????
• Lukacs(1955)??????????
• ???????????????X1?X2????X1X2?X1/(X1X2)????????X1
  ?X2?????????????ß??????????????
• ??(1984)??????????????????
• ?i????????????????? ?.?p??????????????????????????
  ?????

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?????????(3)
?????????(??1984)
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????????????
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????????????????????
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??????????
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(No Transcript)
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????????????????????
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????????????
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??????????????????????
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????????????

• A??????????????A??????????????????????????????????
  A????????????????????????????????
• ??????????????????????????????????????????????????
  ?
• ?????????????????????????????????????????????????
  ??????????????????
• ??????????????????????????????????????????????????
  ????
• ???????????????????????????????????2?????????????
  ??????
• ?SM???????????????????????????????????????????????
  ??????????????
• ??SM????????????????UP??????

40
?????CRM????

• ????????????????????????????????????
• ????????????????????????(?????????????????????????
  ????????)????????????????(????????????????????????
  ????????LTV)????????????????(?????????????????????
  ??)?
• ???????????????????????????
• ?????????????????????????????????????????????(????
  ?????????????????????????)??????????????????(?????
  ??????????)??????????????
• ??SM????????????????????????????????????UP????????
  ????

41
??????

• ???
• ????????????????????????????????????????
• w(1-b)constant
• ?????????
• ????????????????????????????(???????????????)?
• ????????????????????????
• ??
• ????????????????????????????????????
• ?????????????0???????
• ???????????????????

42
????

• Blattberg, R.,C. and Fox, E.J.,(1995) Category
  Management, Food Marketing Institute(??
  ???????????(1997) ??????????? ??)
• Ehrenberg, A.S.C.(1972),Repeat Buying. Amsterdam
  North Holland Publishing Company.
• Ehrenberg, A.S.C., G.J. Goodhardt and T.P.
  Barwise(1990) Double Jeopardy Revisited,
  Journal of Marketing, Vol.54, 82-91
• Kahn ,B. E., Kalwani, M.U. and Morrison,
  D.G.(1988), Niching Versus Change-of-Pace
  Brands Using Purchase Frequencies and
  Penetration Rates to Infer Brand Positionings,,
  Journal of Marketing Research, Vol.25, 384-390.
• Lukacs, E(1955)A Characterization of the Gamma
  Distribution, Annals of Mathematical Statistics,
  Vol.26, 319-24.
• ????(1984),?????????????????, ??????,?31?,?4?,21-5
  0.
• Nielsen Marketing Research(1992),Nielsen Category
  Management Positioning Your Organization to Win.
  NTC Business Books.