9 billion time bomb

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??????? ??? ????? 12.2007
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?????

• 9 billion time bomb
• unless we reduce the human population humanely,
  nature will do it for us through violence,
  epidemics or starvation
• Revenge of Gaia
• apocalypse warned by James Lovelock, cf Kali
• Drought
• lt1 of the worlds freshwater is accessible for
  human
• Mega El Nino (gt30 years of rainless weather
  around 600 AD vanish of Moche civilization)
• War

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????????????

• 2007 ???????????? (IPCC) ??
• 2006 Muhammad Yunes, Grameen Bank
• 2005 IAEA, Mohamed ElBrardei
• 2004 Wangari Maathai
• 2003 Shirin Ebadi
• 2002 Jimmy Carter, USA
• 2001 UN, Kofi Annan
• 2000 Kim Dae-jung
• 1999 Medecins Sans Frontieres
• 1998 John Hume, David Trimble
• Yunes ????????
• Maathai ???????????

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??? ????????
1975 Andrei Sakharov, ???? 1970 Norman
Borlaug, ????????????? 1962 Linus
Pauling,????? 1949 Lord Boyd Orr, ????
The present tension cannot be relieved by
propaganda of fear and hate. It might be
relieved by a new approach which each power,
beginning with the one which feels surest of its
own position, would give full and flattering
credit to every worthwhile achievement in the
other
Photo Yeso, zvis.com
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???????? 2007?1?20?

• ????????
• ?????????????????,?????????????????,??????????
  ????????? ?,??????????????(Doomsday
  Clock)??????,??????????????????5???????,??????????
  ,????????

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Nobel Peace Prize 2007

• By awarding the Nobel Peace Prize for 2007 to the
  IPCC and Al Gore, the Norwegian Nobel Committee
  is seeking to contribute to a sharper focus on
  the processes and decisions that appear to be
  necessary to protect the worlds future climate,
  and thereby to reduce the threat to the security
  of mankind. Action is necessary now, before
  climate change moves beyond mans control.
• Oslo, 12 October 2007

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Yvo De Boer ???????????(UNFCCC)????

• Climate change will hit hardest the poorest and
  most vulnerable countries.
• Failing to recognise the urgency of this message
  and acting on it would be nothing less than
  criminally irresponsible (?????).
• Failing to act would constitute a direct attack
  on the poorest of the poor (??????????).

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2007 ???????? IPCC?4????
????!
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??????
2090- 2099
31.5
27.5
1980-1999 ?? 23.1C
24.5
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?????????
19062005 0.74? 19012000 0.6?
20 ?? 0.17m 19612003 1.8 mm/yr
19932003 3.1 mm/yr
???????
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????

• ???
• ??????
• ????
• ????
• ??????
• ????
• ?????

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??????????????????????

• 2100??? 0.18m 0.59m, IPCC 2007
• ?????????, ? ?????? 100 ??? 4 ?
• ????

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???????????????
IPCC?????????,????????1.9?4.6???????,???????????,?
???????7??
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?????????????
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??30??? ??
380 ppm
30 years
330 ppm
200 years
280 ppm
10,000 years
(background figure after IPCC, 2007)
260 ppm
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(IPCC,AR4,2007)
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???? 2?,???????????????????????????
(IPCC,AR4,2007)
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???????????

• 1950 ??,??6???????? ?????? ??- 3.7.

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????????????????
????,????????????????
2030??????????????????
(?????????????,2002)
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?? ?????????

• 1963 ?901 mm ????????3?
• 1997 ?3343 mm ????????6?

1997
1963
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????????
?????????????????? Peter Mayhew, University of
York, Oct 2007
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2007?4? ????????????????????????,????????????????
? ????? Yoweri Museveni ????? ??????????????
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????,????
1994 ????, Kevin Carter??
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???????????? (Darfur) ?????????,??????????,???????
??????
?????????????????????????? ??,???????????????????
?,??????????????????? Columbia U
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?????????
2007, CNA Corporation

• Zinni ?? (???????)
• ???????????,??????????????
• ??????????????????
• ????????????,???? ???????????

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????????? - ???????
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???????,?????,??????,?????????? ??