Michael J. Prather

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Thoughts on Preparing for the IPCC AR5 other
Opportunities
Michael J. Prather Earth System Science
Dept University of California at Irvine
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AR5
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WG1 WG2 (w/ WG3) Chapter Air Quality in a
Changing Atmosphere
Changing global tropospheric O3 levels
emissions, stratosphere, chemistry climate
change predictable out to 2030? Changing
aerosols toxics Urban environments local
emissions shifting patterns and
style Vulnerable populations Damage to
agriculture and ecosystems
Core Science Elements Climate Variability
Extremes (WG1) Atmospheric Chemistry
(WG1) Human Health (WG2) Ecosystems Agric.
Health (WG2) Emissions (WG3)
Michael Prather / IPCC AR5 Scoping Mtg
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WG1 ( WG3) Chapter Attribution and
Verification of CO2 and other GHG Changes
Formally attribute changes in CO2, CH4, N2O,
F-gases to human/national actions past
pre-industrial to present has not been done
yet Brazil proposal future separate
var. feedbacks from anthrop emissions Verify
mitigation actions (by country) as reducing GHG
emissions independent test/verification
of GHG mitigation
How Much of CO2 rise is anthropogenic?
Core Science Elements Paleo (history/variability
of GHG) C-cycle Atmospheric Chemistry Emission
s (historical WG3) LULUCF
WHAT IF Annex I ceased CO2 emissions in 1990 ?
Michael Prather / IPCC AR5 Scoping Mtg
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USG
Measuring
Greenhouse Gas (GHG) Monitoring, Reporting, and
Verification (MRV) Workshop February 3, 2010
Agenda 830 845 Welcome, Shere Abbott (OSTP)
845 900 Steve Koonin (DOE), Chair, outline
of expectations Where are we today The climate
treaty context and reporting mechanisms 900
930 Richard Guldin (USDA) Land Use monitoring
(Open) 930 1000 Dina Kruger (EPA)
Ground-based monitoring and reporting (Open)
1000 1020 John Holdren (OSTP) (Open)
Beyond Reporting The science of GHG,
present/potential future monitoring capability
1030 1100 James Butler (NOAA) Science of
the Carbon Cycle and global monitoring (Open)
1100 1130 Philip Decola (OSTP) Space based
monitoring (Open) 1130 1200 Michael Prather
(UCI) Report of the NAS committee (Open) 1200
1230 Jonathan Pershing (State) Treaty MRV
from the State Dept. perspective (Open)
Cooperative and covert monitoring 130 200
Randy Bell (DOE) MRV for the CTBT an analogy
for GHG (SCI) 200 230 Larry Kobayashi (CIA)
Covert Monitoring for GHG and proxies (SCI) 230
300 Doug Rotman (LLNL) Data analysis for GHG
emissions (SCI) The path ahead 315 330 Tom
Prince (Caltech) Studies ongoing (JASONs charge)
(SCI) 330 345 Paul Dimotakis (JPL) A GHGIS
Concept (SCI) 345 430 Discussion and plan
for future
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Prathers paraphrasing, no uncertainty
attached. US Forest Service we can measure
changes in carbon stocks to 3 US EPA US
Mandatory Reporting Rule (reports due 31 Mar
2011) from Electricity Generation, Aluminum
Production, Ammonia Manufacturing, Cement
Production, Glass Production, HCFC-22 Production,
Iron Steel Production, Lead Production,
Petrochemical Production, Petroleum Refineries,
Pulp Paper Manufacturing, MSW Landfills,
Petroleum Product Suppliers, Natural Gas
Suppliers, Various Chemical Producers, Stationary
Combustion. GHG Information System We can do
it! An effective monitoring/analysis system to
gauge global economic and other activities, as
well as assure the perception of fairness
necessary for the adoption of binding CO2
reduction goals U.S. State Measurement,
domestic based on international
guidelines Reporting, national reports include
GHG emissions and actions every two
years Verification, independent review (uni- or
multi-lateral) based on international guidelines
Copenhagen Accord Interventions are mostly
not direct GHG emission reductions.
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NGGIP
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Strategy for IPCC AR5 2030s Air Quality Goal
Evaluate changes in AQ over several major
metropolitan regions, comparing 2000s with 2030s,
include uncertainties/probabilities with a
traceable causal chain. Strategy Form clusters
of independent research teams (typically 3
groups) to evaluate and test sensitivity of the
key processes in global change that can alter AQ
and health impacts. These are, in a sense,
partial-derivative evaluations that avoid the
problem of having to assess many different
all-encompassing climate system model runs. Use
measurements models to validate specific
processes or feedbacks where possible, otherwise
assess uncertainties and propagate. Tools Use
the new gridded RCP emissions of reactive
species. Use near-term, high-resolution climate
runs from CMIP5 archive to assess changes in
global atmospheric composition extreme events
with global CTMs (WG1). Use these
chemical-meteorological boundary conditions for
urban simulations (WRF-Chem). Map onto
populations agriculture to integrate and assess
damage. . . .
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Strategy for IPCC AR5 2030s Air
Quality Define global, baseline changes in
aerosols tropospheric O3 w.r.t. Uncertainty in
RCPs 2030s emission of reactive gases
aerosols Biogenics from climate/land-use
change Physical climate changes (conv, BL, T, q,
) Lightning NOx (shift to mid-latitudes, more
intense with climate) STE O3 flux ( its impact
on baseline tropospheric O3) Define
local/regional changes in AQ w.r.t. Projected
local AQMD emissions Long-range transport from
beyond AQMD (atmos. paths, accumulation) Local
biogenic emissions due to land-use climate
change Local photochemistry (T, q,
sunlight) Regional meteorology and extreme
events Exposure (AQ mapped on population,
agriculture, )
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TE Strategy for IPCC AR5? What are the
important pieces of TE science for climate
strategies? How can they be ready for 2012?
Walt Kelly, Earth Day, 1971