POLITICAL WAYS

1
POLITICAL WAYS MEANS TO ADDRESS CLIMATE CHANGE

• GURMIT SINGH
• Chairman, CETDEM
• Cetdem_at_po.jaring.my
• Feb. 08, Netherlands

2
Ever wonder
3
Greenhouse Effect
4
(No Transcript)
5
(No Transcript)
6
Global warming affects ALL

• No human or ecosystem is immune
• We ALL contribute in many ways as will be shown
  later
• ALL are starting to pay the costs which will RISE
  over time
• Some are MORE culpable should ACT now

7
POTENTIAL CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS
Health
Climate Changes
Agriculture
Temperature
Forests
Water Resources and Aquatic Life
Precipitation
Coastal Areas
Sea Level Rise
Species and Natural Areas
Source Anne Grambsch (1998)
8
(No Transcript)
9
Objectives of Framework Convention on Climate
Change UNFCCC
To achieve stabilisation of greenhouse gas
concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that
would prevent dangerous anthropogenic
interference with climate system to allow
ecosystems to adapt naturally, to ensure food
production is not threatened and to enable
sustainable development
10
UNDERLYING PRINCIPLES OF THE UNFCCC

• PRECAUTIONARY has been undermined by USA and
  others waiting for absolute scientific consensus
  reached
• COMMON BUT DIFFERENTIATED RESPONSBILITIES basis
  for Kyoto Protocol and Annex I grouping
• HISTORICAL LIABILITY currently being ignored as
  major developing country emissions growth used to
  force them to cap reduce.

11
CLIMATE CHANGE is a global threat but submerged
in POLITICS

• UNFCCC is an intergovernmental agreement- hence
  politics is unavoidable
• But more so since there is a whole range of
  vested interests at stake
• Those who believe they will suffer adversely CC
  impacts are pitted against those who are
  considered historically the largest GHG emitters
• There is a marked North-South divide - OECD vs.
  non-OECD, Annex I vs. non-Annex I
• Even G77 is divided between OPEC rest, AOSIS vs.
  China, India Brazil

12
THE POLITICAL STAKES

• Who will dominate who will lose out - very
  often based on perceptions rather than reality
• The strong have managed to get their way - very
  often undermining equity e.g. USA dictating the
  Convention, the Protocol and now even rejecting
  it- EU Japan have played 2nd 3rd fiddle
• Seems to be a secret strategy to delay
  implementing actual emission reductions UNTIL
  those from China, India Brazil zoom up - then
  to demand these 3 also must reduce - their
  refusal will be used as an excuse for current
  OECD members not to act - the world can fry!

13
THE REALITY?
14
WHAT IS POLITICAL?

• In some countries, anything that is critical of
  the ruling party is considered political i.e.
  anti-government hence anti-national
• But to me, politics is the mobilisation of the
  citizens concerns capabilities to govern and
  achieve sustainable development
• Politicians are mere agents for the achievement
  of the peoples aspirations NOT the masters they
  make themselves to be.

15
(No Transcript)
16
Outlook for the future
Annual CO2 emissions in gigatons (from 2010
linear growth estimation)
40
35
30
global
25
20
developed countries
15
10
developing countries
5
0
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
Data source IEA, World Energy Outlook 2000
17
Outlook for the future
Cumulative CO2 emissions in gigatons (from 2010
linear growth estimation)
6000.0
5000.0
global
4000.0
3000.0
developed countries
2000.0
1000.0
developing countries
0.0
2000
2020
2040
2060
2080
2100
Data source IEA, World Energy Outlook 2000
18
THE FUTURE according to IPCC
19
THE POLITICAL DRIVERS

• EU both the commission parliament but much
  depends on the thrust of its citizens
• The governments of AOSIS excluding Singapore?
  and low-lying states whose territories will be
  flooded over
• Renewable energy industry as well developers of
  mitigation/ adaptation technology who see more
  profits from such moves.

20
GOING TO WAR!

• CC is greater threat than any previous wars
• Only way to mobilise resources and shorten
  timeframe to achieve the global 80 GHG
  reductions essential to avoid 2 deg C rise

• But must be fought in SD context and eliminate
  global absolute poverty as well
• Billions spent on military hardware MUST be
  redirected to TT for developing countries!

21
IS EU A LEADER?

• EU Parliament national leaders show potential
  but tend to backslide as in Bali
• Even within G8, tends to give way to USA even
  Canada
• Member nations show uneven commitment

• Equiv of Marshall Plan for TT still to be
  endorsed!
• Its style of compromising within and
  internationally weakens strong leadership!
• Has its political leadership mged to decarbonise
  the EU economy?

22
SACRIFICING TONING DOWN ASPIRATIONS

• The affluent in ALL countries have to make
  sacrifices in many wasteful areas but can still
  have a good quality of life
• Those developing economically esp in large
  nations like China India must tone down their
  aspirations for even higher energy and resource
  usages with a possibility of still having a
  better quality of life.

23
NOTHING COMES EASY

• If we want to help curb global warming, we just
  cannot keep pointing fingers
• We must ACT - at our personal level, at our jobs,
  within our nation, globally
• Sustainable development sustainability will
  NOT occur if global warming worsens esp.
  exceeding 2 degree C rise
• Point out the inequities stop being
  HYPOCRITICAL especially among the multinationals
  the rich!

24
MASS MEDIA CIVIL SOCIETY

• MM has to monitor report on how well emission
  reductions are being done
• It should also report more extensively on scale
  of adverse impacts local adaptation action

• CS should expose shortcomings in political action
  to curb CC at all levels
• It should lead campaigns to change lifestyles
  beyond ME MINE syndrome

25
THE BALI STRUGGLE
26
BEYOND BALI!

• The Bali Roadmap is weak and vague
• Cannot wait for COP15 in 2009 for effective
  action to be taken
• USA, even under a new President, may not take
  drastic action needed

• Australia needs to reduce rather than increase
  further emissions
• The next G8 meeting must move Beyond Bali
• Decarbonisation of global economy begun??