Changing Nature of International Conflict

1
Changing Nature of International Conflict
http//www.controlarms.org/flash/video1.htm
2
It aint what it used to be

• Since the 1990s, most wars have been within
  states as opposed to wars between states
• Most likely, these wars are not formal military
  which makes conflict difficult to resolve
• Today, conflicts tend to be more identity based
  (not just ethnicity)
• These are not the old wars of conquest (Hitler)
  or territorial gain (Imperialism)

3
Effects of Violent Conflict

• WWI 90 combatant casualties
• WWII 50 combatant
• 50 civilian
• Today 90 civilian
• 10 combatant
• Harder to get combatants to quit fighting since
  they are NOT THE ONES DYING

4
Technology

• 80 of casualties today result from small, light
  arms
• (unsophisticated weapons)
• The REAL threat to human life is NOT from WMDs
  but rather from the trafficking in light arms

5
(No Transcript)
6
Disarmament and NonProliferation

• Chemical Weapons
• Biological Weapons
• Landmines
• Small Arms
• Nuclear Weapons

Arms - teleshopping
StopLandmines.org
7
Societies in Transition

• Societies/Governments in transition are far more
  likely to become violenteven if they are
  transitioning to democracy!!!
• Conflict without violence (voting, judicial
  systems, elections, etc)is at the core of
  democracybut emerging democracies have trouble
  maintaining this conflict especially if some
  groups feel that the new government isnt
  trustworthy or credible
• These groups are far more likely to turn to
  violence to redress their grievances

8
Primary Commodities

• Violence is far more likely in nations/regions
  that rely on a primary commodity (diamonds, tin,
  oil, etc.) for revenue (non-diversified economy)
• Intense competition for the commodity breeds
  violence
• Sierra Leone Diamonds

9
Other problems that lead to violent
conflictsound familiar?

• Artificial, unnatural borders
• Easily corrupted democratic processes
• Corrupted, poor leadership
• Excessive military spending/influence
• Lack of human services (education, healthcare,
  etc)

10
Consequences of violent conflict.Refugees

• There are currently 25 million refugees on planet
  earth
• There are another 25 million internally displaced
  persons (IDPs)
• 50million who are desperately poor and therefore,
  easily exploited by bad leadershipespecially
  youth.

11
Palestinian Refugees

• The Arab Israeli Conflict created 1
  million Palestinian refugees in 1948
• They have grown to over 4 million today

12

• http//www.un.org/unrwa/

13
What does Peace look like?

• Peace is a long term process and much more than a
  single ceasefire or treaty
• Lasting peace must address underlying economic,
  political and social issues in an area

14
5 Desired End States for Peace

• 1. Safe and Secure Environment end to fighting
  freedom of movement protect witnesses and
  civilians
• 2. Rule of Law independent courts, police,
  judiciary with equal access
• 3. Stable Democracy free and fair elections
  free and fair media political parties
  representative governments
• 4. Sustainable Economy reconstruct
  infrastructure effective regulatory
  environment promote employment protect and
  manage natural resources
• 5. Social Well-Being survival needs of people
  are met needs of IDP are met address abuses
  and reintegrate child combatants