Demographic models

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Demographic models

• Lecture 1. A model in Science. Aim and limitation
  of models. Modeling in demography. Connection of
  modeling with methods, language, processes in the
  complementary sciences. Examples. Classification
  of models. Continuous vs discrete models.
  Determinate vs stochastic models. Macromodels,
  micromodels. Linearity nonlinearity of the
  system. Static vs dynamic models. Models of
  population dynamics.

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Demographic models

• A model in Science

• The model is a set of concepts built up in our
  heads on the project, with terms and
  relationships that reflect domain insight. These
  terms and interrelationships provide the
  semantics that is tailored to the domain while
  being precise enough for our study.
• Physical model of the object
• Scale model
• Conceptual model model that uses ideas for
  representation of another ideas
• Model of the system
• Computer models
• Model of data
• Model of ecosystem
• Mathematical model
• Regional model (socio-economic)

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Demographic models

• A model in Science. Aims and restrictions of
  models.

• Main signs
• A method of scientific study
• Abstraction from random, minor, specific
  processes, events, properties
• Hypothesis testing and checking the assumptions
• Formulation and grounding of main statements of
  the theory
• Opportunities of verification and adjustment
• Formal representation (scheme, equation, graph)
  of our current understanding of the object

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Demographic models

• Modeling in demography

Models allow to conduct pure and bloodless
experiments over the phenomena that do not exist
in the pure form and experiments with them are
simply impossible. (Oleg Staroverov) ??????
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??????????. (?.?.??????????) Example. Model of
stable population. Simplifications constancy of
population indicators, no migration, independence
of demographic events of one person from another
persons.
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Demographic models

• Modeling in demography. Connection of models
  with methods, language, and processes in the
  complementary sciences.

Theory of probability independence of events,
probability of occurrence Theory of matrices
vector length, transition matrix Physics
conservation laws Biology age, life, vital
events Sociology opinions and intentions of
people Economy factors of demographic behavior -
income, standard of living, labor
productivity Medicine, health care morbidity,
cause of death System analysis subsystem,
feedback, interaction, stability
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Demographic models

• Modeling in demography. Connection of models
  with methods, language, and processes in the
  complementary sciences.

Statistics ? Computer science ? History
? Ethnology ? Geography ? Juridical Science
? Ecology ? Linguistics ? Sexology
? Gerontology ? Think together!
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Demographic models

• Modeling in demography. Connection of models
  with methods, language, and processes in the
  complementary sciences.

Statistics accounting, frequency, registration,
tabulation, census Computer science database,
file, data processing, data format History
historical events, historical factors,
territorial changes Ethnology ethnicity, people,
ethnic group Geography city, urban, rural
population, region, settlement, country Juridical
Science Family Code, citizenship,
naturalization Ecology climate, pollution,
global warming Linguistics thesaurus,
dictionaries, encyclopedias Sexology sexual
behavior, sexual education, contraception Gerontol
ogy aging, oldest-old, centenarians,
supercentenarians
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Demographic models
Modeling in demography. Connection of models
with methods, language, and processes in the
complementary sciences. .
Population genetics Natural selection,
mutagenesis, genetic drift, subpopulations,
migration, adaptation, evolution, genogeography
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Demographic models
Modeling in demography. Connection of models
with methods, language, and processes in the
complementary sciences. .
Genealogy systematic collection and analysis of
data on origin, succession, relationship family
ties, relatives, population registers, vital
events, certificates (birth, death, marriage)
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Demographic models
Modeling in demography. Connection of models
with methods, language, and processes in the
complementary sciences. .
Cybernetics optimal control, regulation,
reaching the desired level of indicator or
desired structure, optimum of population,
positive or negative feedback
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Demographic models
Modeling in demography. Connection of models
with methods, language, and processes in the
complementary sciences.
Epidemiology Initiation , propagation,
transmission of diseases. Territory,
subpopulation, population method, prevention and
projection, geographical information systems
Author Emilio Gómez Fernández
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Demographic models
Classification of demographic models
Continuous phase variables of the model,
independent variables (age, duration of
residence, marriage duration,) have continuous
measures.
Discrete phase variables of the model,
independent variables are the integer ones,
belong to the finite set of values.
Advantages, problems, shortcomings
????? Emilio Gómez Fernández
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Demographic models
Classification of demographic models.
Deterministic and stochastic models
Deterministic population processes are
characterized by the direction and intensity
only. No randomness.
Stochastic demographic events are considered as
a random process.
Advantages, problems, shortcomings
????? Emilio Gómez Fernández
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Demographic models
Classification of demographic models.
Deterministic and stochastic models
Example of dynamics of two subpopulations in
deterministic and stochastic versions.
????? Emilio Gómez Fernández
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Demographic models
Classification of demographic models.
Macromodels, micromodels.
Macromodel variables of the model describe the
scale, dynamics, and direction of mass
socio-demographic processes
Micromodel the number and type of
socio-demographic events are obtained as a set of
individual cases which take place with the
person, marital pair, family, or household
????? Emilio Gómez Fernández
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Demographic models
Classification of demographic models. Static
versus dynamic models
Static model describe the age structure, regional
distribution, marital composition, distribution
of families by types, etc. for a fixed moment as
function of demographic indicators
Dynamic model defines the direction and speed of
demographic processes and structures, their
changes in course of time as a function of the
initial state, indicators, and factors of these
processes
????? Emilio Gómez Fernández
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Demographic models
Classification of demographic models. Linearity
Nonlinearity of the system
Linear model assumes that the number of events of
a given demographic process is proportional to
the size of socio-demographic group.
Nonlinear model assumes that the speed or
direction of demographic process significantly
depends upon the the size of socio-demographic
group.
????? Emilio Gómez Fernández
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Demographic models
Classification of demographic models. Models of
population dynamics.
Stationary population Stable population Models of
demographic transition Matrix model of population
reproduction Model by Sergey Kapitza
????? Emilio Gómez Fernández
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Demographic models

• Another examples mathematics, global world
  dynamics, econometrics, assurance, actuary,
  population mathematics, biometrics,
  anthropologybiodemography, historical
  demography, economic demography.