Title: Vladimir Putin
1Vladimir Putin
2Politics in the 90s
- 1993 a new constitution approved
- New parliament (the Duma), half from party
lists, half from single member constituencies - Powers of President strengthened
- President appoints Prime Minister, cabinet
- Russia Votes analysis of Russian voting
patterns - 1996 Eltsin makes a comeback as President from
certain defeat with the money of Boris Berezovsky - Eltsin dances during campaign
- November 1996 bypass operation
3Eltsins second term Politics
- 1996 reelected on second round against Gennady
Ziuganov (Communist) - 1996 Alexander Lebed signs peace deal with
Chechen leaders - Rotating prime ministers
- Communists control Duma block reforms
- Rich oligarchs control Kremlin (Berezovsky,
Gusinsky, Khodorkovsky, Potanin, Smolensky) - Eltsins image as a drunken buffoon
4Political Parties The Communist Party (KPRF)
- Leader Gennady Ziuganov (b. 1944)
- Share of vote to Duma
- 1993 11.6
- 1995 22.3 (34 of seats in Duma)
- 1999 24.3
5Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)
- Right-wing nationalist party
- Leader Vladimir Zhirinovsky (b. 1946)
- Popular intemperate buffoon.
- Took votes away from Communists
- Zhirinovsky in European Parliament
6Democratic parties
- Yabloko Led by Grigory Yavlinsky (right)
- Democratic Party of Russia
- In 1993 get about 10 of the vote
7Moscow the centre of it all
- Throughout the Eltsin era Moscow is the centre
of Russia, sucking the resources out of the rest
of the country. - Moscow becomes symbol of Russian identity.
- Yury Luzhkov, Mayor of Moscow, masterminds
Moscows evolution. - 2010 Medvedev fires Luzhkov for corruption.
8Eltsin Period Economics
- Late 1990s oil prices collapse
- 1998 the Default Russia defaults on GKOs
(government bonds) - Ruble goes from 6 to the to 18, then 30.
- Huge budget deficits
- Unpaid salaries and pensions
- Inflation and financial instability banks
collapse - Crippling taxes on small business
- Flight of capital offshore
- Vulnerability of economy to falling oil prices
9Eltsin Period Government
- Television controlled by oligarchs Berezovsky,
Gusinsky - Russia is a chaos of competing chains of
organized crime - Federal government disorganized, unreformed
- Weak central power strong regions
- Compromise with Chechens leads to chaos in the
Caucasus
10Backgrounder Oil prices
11Who is Putin?
- Law degree from Leningrad State University
- Recruited by KGB (1975-1991)
- Worked in GDR (East Germany) 1985-1990
- On return to Russia worked in administration of
Anatoly Sobchak, liberal mayor of St Petersburg - 1998 Becomes head of FSB, successor to KGB
12Personal characteristics
- Paradoxical figure liberal and KGB backgrounds
- Stiff, awkward in formal situations
- Personable likeable one-to-one
- Perceived by ordinary Russians as their kind of
guy - Extremely intelligent and articulate
- Hardworking and well-briefed
- Can be ruthless when necessary
13The new man...
- August 1999 Vladimir Putin appointed prime
minister of Russia by Eltsin - September 1999 Putin opens second Chechen war
- Organizes new party Unity with Boris
Berezovskys money for December elections - Putin named acting president by Eltsin on
December 31, 1999
14Getting through the Duma
- Putins objective to break the logjam in the
Duma (parliament) that had blocked efforts at
reform - Gradually over three elections with changes in
the electoral law (eliminating single-member
districts), United Russia becomes the dominant
party - Russia Votes
15Putins programme Russian conservatism
- Economic reform appoints first-class economists
(Kudrin, Gref, Chubais) to important posts - Balance budget, repay foreign debt, build up
stabilization fund while oil and gas prices are
high - Tax reform flat income tax of 13
- Private ownership of land
- Increase wealth of Russia during his 8 years in
office, average salaries increase 6 times - Pensions, public sector salaries paid on time
- Current endebtedness of Russia
16Disasters The Kursk
- 12 August 2000 Kursk submarine incident nuclear
sub experiences explosion in torpedo, sinks to
the bottom of the sea -
17Disasters Hostage-taking in Moscow
- 23 October 2002 Nordost hostage taking 850
people at musical taken hostage by about 40
Islamic terrorists - After three days 39 terrorists and 129 hostages
killed (mostly by gas pumped into the building by
Special forces)
18Russian identity a new nationalism
- Reverts to the anthem of the USSR with new
patriotic words Russian national anthem - Strengthens the role of the Russian Orthodox
Church. - Propaganda in favour of the achievements of
Russia AND the USSR (victory in 1945, sputniks,
sport) - Begins to rebuild armed forces
19Vertical of power
- Centralization of all power in the hands of the
president in Moscow - Unity Party (Edinstvo) develops into United
Russia (Edinaia Rossia) - organization of Russian political life around one
party reaching down from the Kremlin to local
levels - Local governors job to turn out the vote and
support Kremlins initiatives - Other tame parties tolerated so long as they do
not try to claim more than token power.
20Khodorkovsky Co
- Takes on the oligarchs deeply unpopular with
Russians - Warns oligarchs not to meddle in politics
- Mikhail Khodorkovsky, head of oil company Yukos
arrested in 2003, tried for tax fraud, sent to
Siberia - Seizes their assets Boris Berezovsky, Vladimir
Gusinsky driven into exile
21The media are the message
- Takes over the TV stations formerly owned by
oligarchs Berezovsky, Gusinsky - TV self-censorship no criticism or ridicule of
president or policies - Numerous investigative journalists murdered,
including Anna Politkovskaia - Recently introduced English-language world-wide
service Russia Today to give Russian point of
view
22Rewriting the constitution I
- Rules for elections continually rewritten to
favour United Russia - minimum 7 vote to get into Duma,
- single-member districts eliminated only party
lists allowed - Result independents eliminated, only four
parties currently represented in Duma UR, CPRF,
LDPR, Fair Russia
23Rewriting the Constitution II Governors
- Beginning 2004 (after Beslan) governors of
regions now appointed by the President, not
elected, only approved by regional assemblies
(usually dominated by UR) - Inefficient or corrupt governors can be removed
by Presidential decree
24The burgeoning bureaucracy
- Putins programme requires a hugely bureaucratic
state - Corruption blossoms at every level from police to
ministries no free press to expose abuses,
bureaucrats have unlimited power - Transparency International puts Russia at 147 on
world perception of corruption index - Bureaucracy stifles free enterprise small and
medium-sized businesses harrassed by local
officials - Bureaucracy often hand-in-glove with monopolies
to suppress competition
25International context responding to aggressive
US policy
- NATO/US Expansion into E. Europe
- 1999 Poland, Czech Republic, Hungary
- 2004 Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Bulgaria,
Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia - Independence of Kosovo even though U.N. Security
Council resolution 1244 guaranteed the
territorial integrity of Serbia - Huge US base in Kosovo (Camp Bonisteel)
26The Coloured Revolutions
- September 2000 Otpor! Yugoslavia Miloševic
ousted - November 2003 Georgia Rose Revolution
Saakashvili replaces Shevardnadze - November 2004 Ukraine Orange Revolution
Pora! Viktor Yanukovich defeated by Viktor
Yushchenko - March 2005 Kyrgyzstan Tulip Revolution
President Akayev replaced by Bakiyev
27Putin in Munich
28The Rebirth of Peter Rebuilding Peters city
- When working in Sobchaks administration, Putin
had a picture of Peter the Great over his desk - St Petersburg tercentenary in 2003 Russia hosts
the G8 - St Petersburg designated as cultural centre
29St Petersburg and Russian Cultural HeritageThe
Hermitage Museum
30The Mariinka
- Known in Soviet times as the Kirov after a
murdered party boss - Resumes its old name
- World-class centre of music, ballet and opera
- Director Valery Gergiev
- Revolutionary new styles and repertoire
31Aleksandr SokurovThe Russian Ark (2002)
- Revolutionary film taken in one shot in the
Hermitage on the shortest day of the year - Steadycam glides through the halls of the Museum
- Panorama of Russian history
32Questions
- Why is Putin so popular?
- Could anyone else have done a better job?
- Is the power vertical the natural form of
government for Russia? - Is the course plotted by Putin sustainable in the
long term?