Demographic Dividend for Africa

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Demographic Dividend for Africas Development
Transformation

• By
• Dr Ademola Olajide
• Head of Division
• African Union Commission

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Concept of Demographic Dividend

• Rapid and sustainable economic growth as
  consequence of a demographic transition from high
  fertility and high mortality to low fertility and
  low mortality equilibrium reducing the
  dependency ratio and increasing the size of the
  working age population
• This large cohort of working age population
  presents the opportunity to stimulate economic
  growth demographic dividend

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Concept of Demographic Dividend
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Economic profile

• Economic growth in Africa has averaged over 5 per
  cent per annum during 2000 and 2009
• Soaring prices for commodities such as oil and
  minerals have helped lift GDP since 2000
• Commodities accounted for only about a third of
  the newfound growth. The rest resulted from
  internal structural changes that have spurred the
  broader domestic economy
• Given the prevailing global economic challenges,
  African countries urgently need to
  elaborate strategies to capitalize on
  the recent growth momentum

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Economic profile

• Africas labor force is expanding with more than
  500 million people of working age, projected to
  exceed 1.1 billion (by 2040) more than in China
  or Indialifting GDP growth
• With the current trends, Africa with a large
  share of the worlds naturally resources, 60 of
  the global uncultivated arable land should be
  able to turn this potential (1 in 5 of the
  planets young person) to sustainable and
  equitable growth

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Population size

• Africa continues to have one of the highest
  population growth rates globally
• Africa is the youngest continent, with almost 200
  million people aged between 15 and 24
• Africa is currently experiencing a youth bulge,
  with about 42 per cent of the entire population
  was under the age of 15

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Fertility
Total fertility as a measure of fertility is
defined as the total number of children a woman
would bear if fertility rates remained the same
during her lifetime.
Total fertility rate of Africa and its
sub-regions(4)
All regions in Africa have a TFR above
replacement levels
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Fertility and Demographic Dividend in Africa

• The reductions in fertility rate in Africa is yet
  to reach levels that experts believe can optimize
  harnessing the demographic dividend
• Several factors account for fertility reduction
  including urbanization, modernization, education
  etc as economic conditions of women increase
  fertility rates will reduce
• Also as fertility rates reduce, economic
  conditions of women improve

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Mortality
Mortality plays a key role in the demographic
dividend. Demographic transition refers to the
change from high and unpredictable mortality and
fertility to low and stable mortality and
fertility rates. (6)
Infant Mortality Rate(7) Under-five Mortality Rate (per 1,000 live births)(8). Maternal Mortality Rate (per 100,000 live births)
African IMR has decreased 1990 172 2000 154 2010 119 African Under-5 MR have decreased 1990 88 deaths 2010 57 deaths MMR has decreased 1990 850 deaths 2010 500 deaths
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Mortality reduction and Demographic Dividend in
Africa

• Mortality reduction across Africa as a whole
  falls below the target set by the Millennium
  Development Goals
• Mortality reduction requires not just a
  strengthening of the health system but also
  deliberate attention to issues of Sexual and
  Reproductive Health and Rights of all population
  segments

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Harnessing the DD for Africas transformation

• The demographic dividend has been described as
  that one-time jump in economic growth consequent
  upon increased economic output of the productive
  population
• Focused policies must therefore be implemented to
  improve the quality of that crop of human capital
  as well create opportunities for their productive
  engagement in economic activities

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Harnessing the demographic dividend
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Strategies to harness a Demographic Dividend in
Africa

• Promote gender equality, equity and empowerment
  of women (50)
• Improve access to Qualitative Education - Each
  year of schooling is associated with an increase
  in wages (10 or more)
• Enhance health status including access to FP
  services and information

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Strategies to harvest from the Demographic
Dividends in Africa - 2

• Strengthen Food and Nutrition Security - one in
  five children in Africa is moderately or severely
  underweight, with significant economic losses
  (COHA)
• Facilitate Policy Coherence e.g. promote decent
  jobs for young persons, between 2000 and 2008
  Africa created 73 million jobs but only 16
  million jobs were created for young people 15 and
  24

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Conclusion

• As African states experience current economic
  growth rates efforts must be consciously
  undertaken to optimize the demographic window
  currently open to the continent
• As African economies prepare to soar, we must
  remember the African proverb the quality of a
  birds flight depends on the quality of its meal
  before take off

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• Merci beaucoup