Birth control, death control and the demographic transition

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Birth control, death controland the demographic
transition
CHRISTOPHER DYE
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Birth control, death controland the demographic
transition
CHRISTOPHER DYE
We're getting older How did it happen? What are
the consequences? What should we do?
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Not true More people are alive today than have
ever died True Two thirds of all people who
have made it to 65 in the history of mankind are
alive today
"Behind every human being now living stand thirty
ghosts" 2001 A Space Odyssey, Arthur C. Clarke
and Stanley Kubrick
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RAY KURZWEIL
Who knows? (but beware the prophets of
immortality) "I think the first person to live
to 1000 might be 60 already" Aubrey de
Grey
AUBREY DE GREY
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The demographic transition Europe since 1500
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Demographic transition
60
mature
post
pre-modern
industrializing
industrial
industrial
50
40
Births
Birth or death rate per 1000 per yr
Population
30
20
Deaths
10
0
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
Years
7
Births and deaths in England
since 1540
45
40
rate per 1000
35
30
25
death
20
or
15
Birth
Source Wrigley Schofield 1981
10
1500
1550
1600
1650
1700
1750
1800
1850
1900
1950
2000
8
Industrial (r)evolution, health (r)evolution
Life expectancy in England 1300-2000
80
Wrigley Schofield
Human Mortality Database
70
Clark
60
50
Life expectancy at birth (years)
40
30
20
1300
1400
1500
1600
1700
1800
1900
2000
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(No Transcript)
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Risk of death in pregnancy falling by 1700 in
England
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14
1840
15
1850
16
1860
17
1870
18
1880
19
1890
20
1900
21
1910
22
1920
23
1930
24
1940
25
1950
26
1960
27
1970
28
1980
29
1990
30
2000
31
2004
32
The coming face of Germany Population "pyramids"
in 1910, 2005, and 2025
Few men war dead
Fall births
Post WW2 baby boom
Long-term fertility decline
JW Vaupel, Science (2006)
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News - World's oldest woman dies at 115 She was
officially proclaimed the world's oldest woman,
and the second oldest person, after the death of
American Elizabeth Bolden in December.19 Jan
2007 News - 'Oldest' woman dies at age of 111 She
shared her birthday with Britain's oldest man,
Henry Allingham, who turned 110 in June. The
oldest person in the world is 116-year-old
Elizabeth Bolden, of Memphis, Tennessee.29 Nov
2006 News - World's oldest woman dies at
116 Capovilla's likely successor as oldest woman
is an American, Elizabeth Bolden of Memphis,
Tennessee, said Mr Young.28 Aug 2006 News - UK's
oldest woman dies aged 111 She became the
country's oldest person on 1 March this year when
112-year-old Judy Ingamells died.2 Aug 2006 News
- Birthday 111 for 'oldest' woman A woman
believed to be Scotland's oldest person reaches
her 111th birthday in Aberdeen.. 6 Jun 2006
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(No Transcript)
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Jane Fonda My Life So Far (aged 69)
James McNeill Whistler Arrangement in Grey and
Black Portrait of the Artist's mother 1871 (aged
67)
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Pyramids and totem polesDeveloping countries
emerging from the pre-modern era
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Pyramids and.Young Population in Developing
Countries Has Great Potential for Growth
Population by age and sex, less developed
countries, 2005
Source United Nations, World Population
Prospects The 2004 Revision (2005).
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Totem polesDeveloped Countries Have Fewer Young
and More Elderly People
Population by age and sex, more developed
countries, 2005
Source United Nations, World Population
Prospects The 2004 Revision (2005).
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Demographic Transition in Sweden and Mexico
Births/Deaths per 1,000
60
Mexico Birth Rate
50
Sweden Birth Rate
40
30
20
Sweden Death Rate
10
Mexico Death Rate
0
1775
1800
1825
1850
1875
1900
1925
1950
1975
2000
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Which means that.

• Country Growth Doubling time
• 1.3/year 50 years
• 3.5/year 20 years

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World population 1500
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World population 2000
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Births 2000
44
Teenage mothers 2000
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The demographic division andthe future of
world population
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Nine billion people by 2050?
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World population
10
6 billion by 2000
8
Population (billions)
6
Less developed
less developed countries
4
More developed
more developed countries
2
0
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
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Populations which are either

• Small but elderly.
• or
  youthful but large

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Developing countries the argument for "family
planning" reducing fertility

• Better health and release from poverty
• Rights for women (control of fertility)
• Protected environment

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Pakistan 2005 and 2050Todays Youth, Tomorrows
Labour Force
Source United Nations, World Population
Prospects The 2004 Revision, CD-ROM Edition,
Extended Dataset (2005).
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"Demographic dividends" and "economic miracles"
From health to wealth?
0.75
education
public health
economics
family planning
0.7
governance
East Asia
0.65
One third economic growth from "demographic gift"
Share population of working age
0.6
0.55
Sub-Saharan Africa
0.5
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
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South Africa 2020Without AIDS youth bulge
Source United Nations, World Population
Prospects The 2004 Revision, CD-ROM Edition,
Extended Dataset (2005)
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South Africa 2020With AIDS Loss of the
middle-aged
Source United Nations, World Population
Prospects The 2004 Revision, CD-ROM Edition,
Extended Dataset (2005)
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Carl Djerassi Co 1950sgiving women control of
fertility
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Fertility around the world
Total fertility rate Average number of children
born to each woman in 2005
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Kenya
contraceptives reduce fertility
9
35
30
8
25
7
20
Births per woman
Contraceptive use ()
6
15
5
10
4
Fertility
5
Contraceptives
3
0
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
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Population growth slows in Kenya
but will there still be too many people?
20
15
Millions of women
10
5
0
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
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Impending disaster in Niger?

• SUMMER 2004
• Locust infestation resulting in widespread crop
  and pasture losses
• Poor rainy season with rainfall ending earlier
  than usual
• Cereal and fodder harvest insufficient
• JANUARY 2005
• Higher than average incidence of severe and
  moderate malnutrition
• MARCH 2005
• Rapid rise in cereal prices combined with a drop
  in livestock prices
• JULY 2005
• Niger governments food security measures, taken
  in collaboration with numerous donors, are
  insufficient to tackle the growing crisis
• Tuareg family have to sell half their cattle to
  buy enough feed for the other half

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Impending disaster in Niger?

• Population 2006 14m
• Population 2050 82m
• Fertility rate 7.5
• Desired children 8.2
• Contraceptive use 4.6
• Life expectancy 43yr
• Grain production 85
• Children stunted 40

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Fertililty rates in rich countries too low to
maintain populations
2.7
2.5
2.3
EU
replacement level
OECD
2.1
Total fertility rate
Nordic
1.9
USA
Japan
1.7
1.5
1.3
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
61
Germany A Century after World War IIIf Current
Fertility and Immigration Rates Continue to 2050
Source Population Reference Bureau projections.
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Industrial world the argument for increasing
fertility

• "A fertility rate of 1.7 is a disaster if you
  look a couple of generations down the line
• Urban areas in Europefilled with empty
  buildings and crumbling infrastructure"

David Reher
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The "Population Bomb" defused?

• "We took a first cut at what is an optimal human
  population, and came up with 2 billion"
• "Population shrinkage is a hugely positive trend"

Paul Ehrlich
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Work longer, save more How to redistribute work
in an aging population? Average hours to be
worked per week in Germany
16.3 hr/person 2025 older people
16.3 hr/person 2025 young old people
16.3 hr/person 2005
JW Vaupel, Science 312, 1911 -1913 (2006)
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(No Transcript)
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About half the population in 2150 - retirement
age?
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Survival of hunter-gatherers and Japanese
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Stationary population Everyone lives to be
100 Average age is 50 Couple can still only have
2 children Small fraction of life is family life
as we know it
80
60
Percent surviving
40
20
0
0
20
40
60
80
100
Age (years)
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''I dream, I think, I go over my life, I never
get bored''

• Born 1875
• Meets van Gogh 1889
• Daughter dies 1934
• Husband dies 1946
• Grandson dies 1963
• Quits smoking 1994
• Dies age 122 1997

Jeanne Calment
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Sir John Crofton, 1912-Philip d'Arcy Hart,
1900-2006
CROFTON D'ARCY HART
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An opinionated summary

• The biggest threat we face is
• An over-populated, over-heated, degraded planet,
  with millions living in poverty

The demographic solution Cut
fertility Stabilize or reduce population Get used
to living long But don't count on immortality