ENERGY CONSUMPTION

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ENERGY CONSUMPTION PATTERNS AND TRENDS
ENERGY CONVERSION 3154/5
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AIR WATER
PROCESS
WASTE
ENERGY
HUMAN ACTIVITY
HUMAN PROCESS FLOW CHART
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U3A
Bath 13 March 2003
Geoff Hammond
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MATERIAL RESOURCE
EXTRACTION
POLLUTION WASTE HEAT NOISE
ENERGY RESOURCE
PROCESSING
METAL/POLYMER
FABRICATION
END USE
METABOLISM OF INDUSTRIAL SOCIETY
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FUEL
EXTRACTION
ENERGY
TRANSPORTATION
POLLUTION THERMAL CHEMICAL RADIOACTIVE ETC
REFINING
CONVERSION
TRANSMISSION
END USE
THE ENERGY COST OF ENERGY SUPPLY
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U3A
Bath 13 March 2003
Geoff Hammond
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DEMOGRAPHICS WORLD POP INC. EXPONENTIALLY DIFFER
ENTAIL GROWTH OF DC AND LDC PRESENT POP 6.3
BILLION HALF UNDER 25YRS OLD
POP INCREASING BY 70 MILLION/YR
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TWO-STATE MODEL
MALTHUS DOCTRINE
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US ENERGY CONSUMPTION
IC ENGINE
WORLD POP
WATT
FARADAY
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DOUBLING TIME
THE TIME TAKEN TO DOUBLE THE CONSUMPTION OF
ANYTHING IS GIVEN BY
DIVIDING 70 BY THE ANNUAL INCREASE
THE ANNUAL INCREASE IN THE POPULATION OF THE
WORLD IS 2, SO THE DOUBLING TIME IS 35 YEARS
THE ANNUAL INCREASE IN ENERGY CONSUMPTION IN THE
USA IS 7 SO THE DOUBLING TIME IS 10 YEARS
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WORLD POPULATION
DATE POP x DT (YEARS)
8000 BC 5 1500
1650 AD 500 200
1850 AD 1000 80
1930 AD 2000 45
1975 AD 4000 40
2015 AD 8000 ??
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FOOD RESOURCES
FOOD 8 BILLION CULTIVATABLE ACRES NEED 1 ACRE
PER PERSON PER YEAR GM CROPS?
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EXPONENTIAL GROWTH
A SIMPLE EXPONENTIAL SERIES IS ONE IN WHICH THE
LAST TERM IS DOUBLE THE PREVIOUS TERM EG
1,2,4,8,16,ETC
A PROPERTY OF SUCH A SERIES IS THAT THE LAST
TERM IS BIGGER THAN THE SUM OF ALL THE PREVIOUS
TERMS
IN THE NEXT 35 YEARS THERE WILL BE MORE PEOPLE
BORN THAN IN THE WHOLE OF HISTORY
IN THE NEXT 10 YEARS THE USA WILL USE MORE
FUEL THAN IN THE WHOLE OF HISTORY
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SUPPOSE THAT 0.01 USED 1/10,000 OF KNOWN RESERVE
5 TIMES MORE FOR DOUBLE LIFE
EXHAUSTION IN 13.3 DOUBLING TIMES
FOR DT 10 YRS, ALL GONE IN 135 YRS
CONSUMPTION OF A FINITE RESOURCE
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ELECTRIFICATION

• ALL DEVELOPED SOCIETIES SHOW A TREND TOWARDS
  GREATER USE OF ELECTRICITY
• THIS MEANS HIGHER CONSUMPTION OF PRIMARY FUELS
• THIS MEANS MORE ATMOSPHERIC POLLUTION

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THE INFLUENCE OF THE USA
5 0F THE WORLDS POPULATION USING 60 OF THE
WORLDS ENERGY AND
PRODUCING MOST OF THE WORLDS POLLUTION
WILL NOT RATIFY THE KYOTO PROTOCOL
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SANKEY DIAGRAM
PATTERN OF ENERGY USE IN THE USA, 1970
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US ENERGY USE PATTERNS 1985
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CONSEQUENCES OF ELECTRIFICATION
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