Preparing for Tomorrow Today

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NWS Science Technology Roadmap, V 1.0(under
review, debate, coordination)

• Preparing for Tomorrow Today

Don Berchoff, Director Office of Science
TechnologyJune 25, 2009 Prepared For Our Partners
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Overview

• Guiding Principles
• Roadmap Construct
• Service Area Goals Research Needs and
  Opportunities
• Potential Societal Benefits
• Example Service Area Roadmap
• Enabling Capabilities Goals
• Schedule Milestones

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Guiding Principles
OST Mission Drive ST Advances into NWS
Operations

• Meet NWS Strategic Plan S T objectives
• Develop service area stretch goals to rally and
  influence Nations research strategies, plans and
  investments
• Harness the Nations best expertise to solve
  scientific challenges
• Field next generation observing/forecast systems
  to
• Ensure timely, accurate and relevant weather
  information for governmental decision makers,
  general public, private industry
• Ensure rapid, on-demand access to information for
  all from sophisticated user to Joe the plumber

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Roadmap Construct
NWS Strategic Plan

• Observations
• Data Assimilation
• Forecasting
• Models
• Post Processing
• Human Aided
• Dissemination
• Decision Support
• Verification Metrics
• Customer Outreach, Feedback Technologies
• Social Sciences

• Fire Weather
• Hydrology
• Aviation
• Severe Weather
• Winter Weather
• Marine
• Tropical Weather
• Climate
• Air Quality
• Space Weather
• Tsunami
• Sensible Wx Health Impacts
• Emerging areas(e.g. energy, ecosystems)

ID Next Generation Enabling Capabilities
Service Science Areas Research Thrusts
Research Partners
Test Beds /Service Proving Grounds

• Universities
• Government Labs
• Private Industry

ST Research to Operations
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Service Area Goals and Research Thrusts
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Potential Societal Benefits
Potential Benefits
Service Area Improvements
Reduce 10B/yr in tropcyclone damage
Tropical Cyclone, Track,Intensity, Precip
Forecasts
Reduce 1B/yr indamage from severe wx
Tornado and Flash FloodWarnings
Reduce 60 B/yr lossesfrom air traffic delays
Aviation, Fire, and MarineForecasts
Reduce 4.3B/yr inflood damage
Flood and River Predictions
Reduce mortality from50,000/yr from poor AQ
Air Quality Predictions
Reduce 365M/yr inlosses (power industry)
Space Weather
Seasonal Climate Forecasts forEnergy,
Agriculture, Ecosys, etc
Reduce 7B/yr inlosses (drought)
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Tropical Cyclone Roadmap
Vision Finer scale and highly accurate track,
intensity and inundation forecasts that trigger
appropriate responses resulting in reduced loss
of life and economic impacts

• RD Needs and Opportunities
• Cause of rapid intensity changes
• Key observations needed for improved forecasting
• Air-sea fluxes under quiet and disturbed
  conditions
• Predictability limits
• Vortex-convection-environment interactions
• Microphysics of convection at high-resolution
• Social Science

• Halved track intensity forecast errors
• Warnings and forecasts prior to cyclogenesis
• Communication of accurate, street level evacuation

Increasing Impact

• Wind radii forecasts to 5 days
• Wind surge impact guidance to 36-hr
• Improved rapid intensity change, POD and FAR

• Track forecast to 7 days
• Detailed storm- surge/inundation forecasts
• Improved tropical cyclone precip estimates

2009 10 11 12 13 14 15
16 25
Time
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Enabling Capabilities Goals

• Integrated observing and analysis system
• Coupled, integrated environmental modeling data
  assimilation, prediction, post-processing (e.g.
  ensembles)
• Next Generation 4-D Forecast System
• Optimize for high impact events
• Forecaster decision support tools, applications
  with government-centric information
  architectures
• Dynamic training capabilities
• 4D Digital Weather Information Database (WIDB)
• Transformed dissemination/communication/outreach
  capabilities
• Incorporated social sciences strategies in
  research and operations

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Integrated Observation/Analysis System
Strategies National Mesonet Network of
Networks Integrated Radar (Lidar, gap-fillers,
MPAR) Global Systems Multisensor
platforms Optimization with OSEs,
OSSEs Standards, Architectures, Protocols
Maximize value of investment
Future Weather Information
Database Open Architecture
Analysis Inventory systems, and metadata
standards Assess interdepend-encies,
oversampling, gaps, levels of criticality
Current Individual Systems Public Private
Universities Radar Satellite In-Situ Upper
Air Etc
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Coupled, Integrated Environmental Modeling System
Atmospheric Model
Earth System Models
Ocean Land Surface Air Quality Space Hydrology Eco
system Ensembles Etc
Weather Industry
Multi-component ensemble Stochastic forcing
4D Data Assimilation e.g. 4D Var, EnKF, hybrids
Resolution Changes, Downscaling
Post Processing Bias Correction,
Statistical Methods, Ensembles
Product Generation Verification
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Next Generation 4-D Forecast System Optimized
for High Impact Weather Events/Uncertainty
Where can I addvalue today?
What matters?
Customer Thresholds
Wheres theuncertainty?
RADAR
Satellite
In-Situ
Ensembles
Customer Thresholds
Models
Post-Processing
Satellite
RADAR
In-Situ
Ensembles
Models
Post-Processing
Intelligence Augmentation
NWS Forecaster Future
Smart Tools System Algorithms Artificial
Intelligence
NWS Forecaster Today
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Next Generation 4-D Forecast SystemHigh Impact
Weather Events (Notional)
User Input
NWS informs public decision makers for public
safety, security
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Next Generation 4D Forecast SystemDecision
Support Services
Common operating picture to help aid forecasters
identify weather threats with the most impact on
airspace operations
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Next Generation 4-D Forecast SystemDecision
Support
Emergency Managers
NWS Forecasters
Weather Information Database supports
interoperabilitycommon operating picture
Advanced Communication/Collaboration Capabilities
IMETS
Responders
Emergency Operations Center
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Weather Information Database
Weather Industry
Private Industry
Private Sector
Observations
Forecasting
Numerical Prediction Systems
Satellites
Network Enabled Operations
Postprocessed Probabilistic Output
NWS Forecaster

Data Integration
Radars
WIDB Cube
Aircraft
Automated Forecast Systems
Surface
Forecast Integration
Soundings
Grids
Custom Graphic Generators
Decision Support Systems
Custom Alphanumeric Generators
Governmental Decision Making
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Transform Dissemination/ Communication/Outreach
Architecturesfor NWS Users
GIS Pros at NWS
GIO/GPMO GIS Team
NWS Web Team
IRIS
NWS Shapefiles
Customer Help Desk
Internal Help Desk/ Tier 1 Support
AWIPS
Offices using AWIPS work stations
NOAA GIS data
Climate Outlook NDFD Watches/warnings Radar Hurri
cane Tracks Etc
Legacy Storage
GovernmentAgencies General Public Private
WeatherIndustry
Internet Access
Legacy Apps
Data in OGC Compliant format WFS WCS WMS KML
Geo-database
Geospatial Reference Information
Firewall
GIS Apps NWS Support, Admin. Mgmt.
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Incorporate Social Sciences Strategies in
Research Operations

• Probabilistic Forecasts
• Communicating Forecast Uncertainty

High
Public
Weather Industry
Social Science Infusion
Public Decision Makers
Educated on use of probabilistic guidance to
ensure best response
Forecasters
Incorporating Uncertainty for Managing Risk and
Making Decisions
Private Sector
Human Factors, Communicating Uncertainty
Sophisticated Users
Low
Time
Today
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RoadmapSchedule, Milestones, and Status

• PHASE I
• Establish Framework Team 17 Nov 2008
• Framework Brief to Corporate Board 10 Dec 2008
• PHASE II 21 Dec 2008
• Roadmap plenary workshop 3 Feb 2009
• Capstone Group completes initial draft
  27 Mar 2009
• Update for NOAA/NWS leadership Apr 2009
• (Progressive updates. Next update by
  August 2009)
• Focus Area Teams complete robust outlines
  (briefing) 30 Jun 2009
• PHASE III
• Stakeholder input compiled Oct 2009
• Draft Capstone Document Nov 2009
• Full Documentation of Focus Area Plans (10-14pp
  each) Nov 2009
• All ST Roadmap documents published
  early 2010
• Status 6/15
• Completed

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Questions
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