Millennium Ecosystem Assessment Overview

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Millennium Ecosystem Assessment Overview

• September 2003

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ISSUE Human demand for ecosystem services is
quickly growing around the world
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ISSUE A recent study shows that the capacity of
many ecosystems to provide certain services has
been declining
Ecosystem Type
Key
Freshwater
Grasslands
Forest Systems
Coastal Systems
Condition of Ecosystem
Agro-ecosystem
Services
Excellent
Food-Fiber Production
Good
Fair
Water Quality
Poor
Bad
Water Quantity
Not Assessed
Biodiversity
Changing Capacity
Decreasing
Carbon Storage
Increasing
Mixed
Source Pilot Assessment of Global Ecosystems.
2000. WRI, IFPRI
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ISSUE Despite knowledge of the increasing
demand and diminishing or endangered supply,
science is not being effectively brought to bear
on these challenges

• Existing mechanisms for linking science and
  policy are highly sectoral whereas the major
  problems today are increasingly multisectoral.
• Such mechanisms include Forest Resource
  Assessment, World Water Assessment,
  Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, etc.
• Significant issues identified by scientists are
  not on policy agendas.
• E.g., Change in nitrogen and phosphorous cycles
  receives little attention outside of scientific
  literature
• New data sources, methodologies and models are
  underutilized in many countries.
• E.g., Remote sensing tools and data Scenarios
  development

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The Millennium Ecosystem Assessment is

• An international scientific assessment to be
  completed in 2004
• Designed to meet a portion of the assessment
  needs of
• Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD),
• Convention to Combat Desertification (CCD),
• Ramsar Wetlands Convention,
• other partners including the private sector and
  civil society
• Focused on the consequences of changes in
  ecosystems for human well-being
• Undertaken at multiple scales (local to global)
• Designed to both provide information and build
  capacity to provide information
• Expected to be repeated at 5-10 year intervals if
  it successfully meets needs

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The MA focuses on

• Ecosystem services
• The consequences of changes in ecosystems for
  human well being
• The consequences of changes in ecosystems for
  other life on earth

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Ecosystem Services are the benefits people obtain
from ecosystems

• Regulating
• Benefits obtained from regulation of ecosystem
  processes
• climate regulation
• disease regulation
• flood regulation
• detoxification

Provisioning Goods produced or provided by
ecosystems food fresh water fuel wood
fiber biochemicals genetic resources
Cultural Non-material benefits obtained from
ecosystems spiritual recreational
aesthetic inspirational educational
communal symbolic
Supporting Services necessary for production of
other ecosystem services Soil formation
Nutrient cycling Primary production
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The MA considers the consequences of ecosystem
change for human well-being
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The MA is an Integrated Assessment IPCC looks at
impacts of one driver (climate) on different
systems MA will integrate the effects of
multiple drivers on all ecosystems
Driver
Ecosystems
Response
Human Impact
Millennium Assessment
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Organizational Structure of the MA
MA Board
Review Board Chairs
Assessment PanelWorking Group Chairs
Support Functions Director, Administration,
Logistics, Data Management
Outreach Engagement
Chapter Review Editors
Global Assessment Working Groups
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Status MA Timeline of Activities
3rd WG Mtgs
2nd Design Mtg
Begin Review
2nd WG Mtgs
Board Approval
Joint WG Mtg
Review WG Mtgs
1st Design Mtg
1st WG Mtgs
2001 2002 2003
2004 2005
Assessment Synthesis Release Outreach
Conceptual Framework Report Release
UN Launch
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The MA Board and design are reflective of a full
spectrum of stakeholder groups
National and sub-national governments
International organizations
Local communities and civil society

• 180 governments have endorsed the MA through
  their participation in international conventions
• Administrative authorities are also engaged as
  users at other levels

• Traditional knowledge of indigenous groups will
  be incorporated in the MA
• MA has been designed to meet some assessment
  needs of indigenous and local communities

• The MA was featured as a key action in the UN
  Secretary-Generals Millennium Report, April
  2000
• The MA was launched by Kofi Annan, June 2001
• 13 international institutions are directly
  represented on the MA Board

Private sector
Media and Public

• MA will provide information to various news
  outlets, journals, etc.
• Findings may become part of a public information
  campaign on ecosystems

• MA has developed a close relationship with the
  World Business Council on Sustainable Development
• Individual companies are represented by Board
  members
• MA findings will be relevant to intermediaries
  such as credit agencies, institutional investors,
  and trade organizations

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Status Development of Content

• Conceptual Framework Report completed
• 500 Authors, 80 countries
• 2-3 meetings of each Working Group
• Cross-cut meetings Biodiv, Drivers, Health,
  Food, Marine, Water
• Zero order draft chapters for all chapters
  except Sub-Global
• 10 Sub-global assessments approved
• 12 additional candidates
• Review Board established
• Core datasets available
• On-line data catalog and exploration tool
• Cross-check against user needs

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Status Process of User Engagement

• Strengthened CBD and Ramsar Authorization and CCD
  links
• CMS new authorizing convention
• Country strategies underway in 25 countries
  (e.g., national user forums during 2003 involving
  700 people)
• Private sector industry group briefings WBCSD
  workshops
• Board communications committee
• 20 National Academies as partners

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The Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (MA)
First MA Product, published September 2003
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Conceptual Framework Report Ecosystems and
Human Well-Being

• Purpose
• To provide a unified approach, rationale, and
  terminology for the assessment
• All members of the assessment panel and CLAs from
  all Working Groups were engaged in writing
• To inform MA users as well as the scientific
  community of the nature of the product to come
  and its foundation
• To provide information to those interested in
  applying elements of the MA in other assessment
  activities

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Conceptual Framework
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Using the Conceptual Framework as a guide, MA
Working Groups will try to answer core questions

• Conditions and Trends Working Group
• What is the current condition and historical
  trends of ecosystems and their services?
• What have been the consequences of changes in
  ecosystems for human well-being?

• Scenarios Working Group
• Given plausible changes in primary drivers, what
  will be the consequences for ecosystems, their
  services, and human well-being?

• Responses Working Group
• What can we do about it?

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Condition and Trends Assessment Report

• I Introduction
• CF, Methods, Drivers, Biodiversity, Human
  Well-Being and Vulnerability
• II Ecosystem Services
• Analysed by major ecosystem services
• III Condition and Causality Analyzed by
  Ecosystems
• Multiple services from various systems
• IV Synthesis

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MA Reporting Categories or Systems examples
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Goal Develop scenarios that embrace a useful
range of plausible futures of the worlds
ecosystem services

• Our vision of scenarios
• Embrace plausible outcomes of unpredictable and
  ambiguous drivers (as well as predictable ones)
• Emphasize surprises, not central tendencies
• Consistent with state-of-the-art ecological
  information
• Quantitative and qualitative
• To the year 2050 (slices looking at years between
  now and then)

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Joint Development with Responses Working
Group Retrospective Based on Millennium
Development Goals No new modeling
Varied Expt
Techno Fix
Develop Fix
Developed by Scenarios Working
Group Prospective Quantified
Fortress
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Scenarios Framework
Relationships and Interactions of People and
Nature
connected
Global institutions
Technological fix
Development Fix
Varied Experiments
Fortress
disaggregated
responsive
proactive
Approach to cross-scale feedbacks
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Scenarios Assessment Report Outline

• Executive Summary
• Preface
• Chapter 1. History of global scenarios
• Chapter 2. Ecology in global scenarios
• Chapter 3. Driving forces
• Chapter 4. Assessment of quantification and
  modeling approaches
• Chapter 5. Methods
• Chapter 6. Preamble to the scenarios
• Chapter 7. Storylines
• Chapter 8. Ecosystem goods and services across
  the scenarios
• Chapter 9. Human well-being across the scenarios
• Chapter 10. Trade-offs among ecosystem services
• Chapter 11. Synthesis Lessons learned
• Chapter 12. Synthesis Policy implications

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Responses Working Group Timeline

• 1st WG Meeting New Delhi, June 2002
• Zero Order Drafts March 2003
• 2nd WG Meeting Frankfurt, May 2003

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Responses in the MA

• Responses are defined as the range of policies or
  measures that impact the state and functioning of
  ecosystems
• Measures that impact eco-systems directly or
  indirectly
• Initiated by decision makers at global, regional
  or local levels
• Legal, economic, financial, institutional,
  technological, social or cognitive interventions
• Planned to affect indirect drivers, direct
  drivers, or human well-being

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Responses Assessment Report Structure

• Part I Conceptual Framework for Evaluating
  Responses
• Part II Assessment of Past and Current
  Responses
• Part III Synthesis Ingredients for successful
  responses

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Multiple ScalesThe MA is a multi-scale
assessment - it is expected that findings at any
scale of a multi-scale assessment will differ
from those of a single-scale assessment as a
result of information and perspectives from other
scales

• Why undertake a multi-scale assessment?
• Permit social and ecological processes to be
  assessed at their characteristic scale
• Allow greater spatial, temporal, causal detail to
  be considered as scale becomes finer
• Allow independent validation of larger-scale
  conclusions
• Permit reporting and response options matched to
  the scale where decision-making takes place

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MA Cross-cutting Issues
Seven issues were identified that cut across all
working groups. Special meetings have been held
to address these cross-cutting issues.
Prague Combined WG
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What are the Outputs of the Global Assessment?

• 2003
• People and Ecosystems A Framework for
  Assessment
• Release September
• MA Data Catalog
• Datasets being used in the MA
• 2004
• Conference Proceedings Bridging Scales and
  Epistemologies in Multi-scale Assessments
• 2005
• Technical Assessment Reports (300-800 pages ea.)
  and Summaries for Decision-makers (SDMs)
• Sub-global Assessment
• Condition/Trends Assessment
• Scenario Assessment
• Response Options Assessment
• Summary Volume (SDMs of 4 reports)

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Assessment Outputs Global (continued)

• 2005
• Synthesis Reports (30-50 page)
• Ecosystems and Human Well-being
• Biodiversity (CBD)
• Desertification (CCD)
• Wetlands (Ramsar)
• Private Sector
• Health and Ecosystems (tentative)
• Food and Cultivated Systems (tentative)
• Board Summary of Key Messages (10 p.)
• Other Products
• Reports available over internet (multiple
  language for summary docs)
• Interactive web-based MA indicator exploration
  capability
• Partnerships for expanded outreach radio,
  theatre, documentaries, film (tentative)
• Partnerships for capacity-building/training
  outreach (tentative)

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What are the Outputs of the Sub-Global
Assessments?

• India
• Pilot Assessment (2000)
• Final Assessment (2005)
• Southern Africa Assessment
• Pilot Assessment (2002)
• Final Assessment (2005)
• Norway Pilot Assessment (2002)
• Coastal British Columbia (Final 2004)
• Small Islands of Papua New Guinea (Final 2005)
• Laguna Lake Basin Philippines (Final 2005)
• Northern Range Trinidad (Final 2005)
• Sweden Local Assessments (Final 2005)
• Salar de Atacama, Chile (Final 2005)
• Mekong Wetlands, Vietnam (Final 2005)
• Sinai Peninsula (Final 2005)
• Western China (Final 2006)

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Capacity Building

• A Central Objective of the MA, capacity building
  will occur through multiple outlets
• Access to Data/Information
• Sub-Global Assessments
• Training Materials
• Young Fellows Program
• Scenarios and Modeling Training Course
• Partnerships for Distance Learning
• The Secretariat remains open to the
  identification and development of other capacity
  building opportunities during the course of the
  assessment.

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Distributed SecretariatIndividuals and
Organizations around the world support the entire
process
Condition TSU UNEP-WCMC, U.K. ( South Africa)
Scenarios TSU SCOPE, France ( Italy, United
States)
Directors Office The World Fish Center (ICLARM),
Malaysia
Sub-Global TSU, ICLARM, Malaysia
Response Options TSU Institute for Economic
Growth, India ( RIVM, Netherlands)
GEF, UNF Grant Administration UNEP,Kenya
Outreach Engagement WRI Meridian Institute,
USA
Meeting Support Meridian Institute, USA
TSU Technical Support Unit . Organizations/countr
ies listed in parentheses provide or host
additional support and technical staff
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MA receives financial and in-kind contributions
from a variety of sources
FINANCIAL CONTRIBUTIONS ( 17 MILLION)
IN-KIND CONTRIBUTIONS ( 6 MILLION)

• Sponsors
• Global Environment Facility
• United Nations Foundation
• Packard Foundation
• World Bank
• United Nations Environment Program
• Other Donors
• Government of Norway
• Kingdom of Saudi Arabia
• Rockefeller Foundation
• NASA
• ICSU
• Swedish International Biodiversity Programme
• Christensen Fund

• Norway
• China
• India
• Japan
• Germany
• Netherlands
• United States (NASA, USGS, ORNL, USDA)
• European Commission
• FAO, UNDP, WHO, UNESCO, UNEP
• ICRAF, ICLARM
• Numerous other countries, NGOs, Universities and
  other institutions are supporting travel costs of
  experts

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Visit the MA Website

• www.millenniumassessment.org