Official Statistics from a non NSI angle Iain MacLeay UK Department of Trade and Industry UK

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Official Statistics from a non NSI angleIain
MacLeayUK Department of Trade and Industry UK
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Outline of presentation

• The decentralized UK statistical structure
• UK Department of Trade and Industry
• UK energy statistics
• Policy linkages

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Characteristics of Statistics UK

• Advantages and Disadvantages
• Centralised through National Statistician
• Decentralised ( GSS 30 statistical offices )
• Devolved ( 4 UK Nations )
• Integrated GES, GSR, GORS
• Europeanised ( 27 Other Nations )
• Globalised ( UN, IMF, World Bank )
• Non-statutory - apart from Census Act 1920,
  Statistics of Trade Act 1947, Energy Act 1976

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Decentralised system

• Most statistics produced by officials in
  departments
• Energy statistics by Department of Trade and
  Industry
• Crime statistics by Home Office
• Medical statistics by Department for Health
• Rail statistics by Department of Transport
• Construction statistics by Department of Trade
  and Industry
• Etc
• Office for National Statistics
• National accounts, population, inflation,
  employment etc.

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About 3,300 employees
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Energy statistics

• Three main teams
• Energy prices statistics, overall energy
  statistics and publications co-ordination of
  energy statistics and cross fuel concerns.
• Coal, Downstream Gas, Electricity, CHP and
  renewables statistics data collection and
  analysis.
• Oil and Upstream Gas statistics data collection
  and analysis monitoring of oil emergency stocks
  operation of emergency oil data systems.

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Energy statistics (cont)

• Additional statistical teams (with direct policy
  responsibility)
• Energy efficiency and emissions, including smart
  metering
• Fuel poverty

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Statistical functions carried out

• Data collection, validation, processing,
  tabulation
• Publication of energy statistics in printed and
  bound volumes and on the Internet
• Analysis and briefing on individual fuels coal,
  oil, gas, electricity, renewables and CHP
• Energy balances and overall energy statistics
• Provision of statistics to international bodies
  such as the IEA, Eurostat, UNECE
• Provision of statistics to ONS for National
  Accounts and the Main economic indicators

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Statistical functions continued

• Energy Consumption Statistics
• Regional and Local Energy Statistics
• Emissions Statistics
• Policy related analysis oil stocking energy
  security of supply
• Fuel Poverty Statistics (and associated fuel
  poverty matters)

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Wide range of customers

• 1a) DTI Ministers
• 1b) DTI officials - policy customers
• 2a) Other government departments especially
  Defra (responsible for energy efficiency policy)
• 2b) National Statistics
• 2c) International statistical organisations
  Eurostat / IEA / UNECE
• 3) General public

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Wide range of products (1)

• Annuals
• Digest of UK Energy statistics balances etc.
• UK Energy in Brief
• UK Energy Flows (every 3 years)
• UK Energy Sector Indicators
• Energy Consumption in the UK
• Energy Its Impact on the Environment and
  Society (policy document)
• UK Fuel poverty strategy (policy document)

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Wide range of products (2)

• Quarterly
• Energy Trends
• Quarterly Energy Prices
• Monthly
• Web updates
• Weekly
• Petrol and fuel oil prices
• Input to Other Policy Documents
• Energy Review / White Paper
• Joint Energy Security of Supply (JESS)

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Key benefits of non NSI solution

• Evidence based policy making
• Closeness to key policy customers
• Closeness to energy supply companies
• Involvement with Ministers
• Breadth of work undertaken by statisticians
• But we still maintain National Statistics focus

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Market transparency

• UK believe in liberalised energy markets
• Policy makers need information
• UK leading supporter of JODI
• Issues in the last two years regarding flows of
  oil and gas
• Monitor situation with policy colleagues link
  with IEA
• Gas little transparency on transit through
  Europe

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Oil stocking

• UK required to hold stocks to meet IEA / EU
  obligations
• Statistician role set UK obligations and
  monitor
• UK place burden on industry, calculating industry
  shares
• Involved in emergency action (Katrina), deciding
  and monitoring UK contribution
• Linking with policy colleagues, industry and
  international organisations
• Involved in developing new UK system

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Joint Energy Security of Supply

• Statistical messages to policy makers / market
  participants in easy to understand format
• Extra dissemination tool for our statistics
• Flexible system feedback for new indicators
• Role
• Develop new indicators
• Measure correctly (ignore political pressures)
• Deals with future events

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Fuel prices

• UK prices rising faster than other European
  countries
• Lots of pressure on Government to do something
• What does the data say ?
• What is appropriate response ?

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Fuel poverty

• Clear policy goal households spend less than
  1/10th of income on heating, lighting etc.
• Range of policies
• Income benefit system (DWP)
• Energy efficiency insulation (Defra)
• Prices encourage use of market social tariffs
  encouraged

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Policy implications
Fuel poverty amongst the vulnerable in England
Position in 2005 and 2006 are based on the
modelling of the impact of income and energy
prices movements on the number of vulnerable
households in fuel poverty. Position in 2010 is
based of modelling and shows central price
scenario as the main bar, with lines indicating
the level of fuel poverty under the low and high
price scenarios.
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Issues for possible discussion

• Evidence based policy making
• Closeness to key policy and energy supply
  companies ensures the relevance of outputs
• Hierarchy of customers
• DTI Ministers and policy officials
• National Statistics, International statistical
  organisations, and other government departments
• General public