Adapting Water Resource Management to Climate Change Impacts

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Adapting Water Resource Management to Climate
Change Impacts
Dr. Lee Tryhorn
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Talk Outline

• Overview of NYS ClimAID project
• Evidence of a changing climate
• Climate model predictions for NYS
• Key vulnerabilities for NYS
• Adaptations

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Climate Risk
Economics Equity and Environmental
Justice Science-Policy Linkages
Adaptation
Vulnerability
CLIMATE-PROTECTED NYS Reduced Vulnerability and
Enhanced Adaptive Capacity
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Water Sector Team

• Rebecca Schneider (co-leader, Cornell)
• Andrew McDonald (co-leader, Cornell)
• Art DeGaetano (climate, Cornell)
• Alan Frei (hydrology modeler, CUNY)
• Susan Riha (Director, NYS WRI)
• Steve Shaw (hydrologist, Cornell)
• Lee Tryhorn (climate, Cornell)
• Contact Lee.Tryhorn_at_cornell.edu

PIs C. Rosensweig (Columbia), A. DeGaetano
(Cornell), W. Solecki (CUNY)
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Talk Outline

• Overview of NYS ClimAID project
• Evidence of a changing climate
• Climate model predictions for NYS
• Key vulnerabilities for NYS
• Adaptations

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Precipitation Increases
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Decreases in snow cover
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Increase in lake-effect snow
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Talk Outline

• Overview of NYS ClimAID project
• Evidence of a changing climate
• Climate model predictions for NYS
• Key vulnerabilities for NYS
• Adaptations

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Future projections

• Increased winter precipitation with more falling
  as rain.
• Increases in the frequency and intensity of heavy
  rainfall events, coupled with the potential for
  more summer drought

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Future projections
Northeast Climate Impact Assessment, 2007
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Talk Outline

• Overview of NYS ClimAID project
• Evidence of a changing climate
• Climate model predictions for NYS
• Key vulnerabilities for NYS
• Adaptations

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Vulnerabilities More flooding?
In New York, flood damages were 54.8 million in
2006
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Vulnerabilities More flooding?
1955 Hurricanes Diane Connie
1984 5 consecutive days of moderate rain
Ten-Mile Creek (Dutchess Ct.)
Identified from 50 yr long USGS discharge record
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Vulnerabilities
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Vulnerabilities Design criteria

• Central Park
• 1940 - 1960 1970-2006
• 2-yr 3.10 3.86
• 50-yr 6.21 7.31
• 100-yr 7.22 8.39
• Ithaca
• 2-yr 2.43 2.49
• 50-yr 4.46 5.73
• 100-yr 5.08 6.86

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Combined Sewer Overflows (CSOs)

• already occur with rainfall gt 1/hr
• 24 billion gallons
• untreated sewage/yr
• enter Great Lakes
• (Sierra Legal rpt
• 12/06)

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Vulnerabilities Short-term droughts

• Increased frequency of short-terms droughts
• Impacts on crops, livestock, reservoirs, and
  municipal well supplies.

2.9 million acres of agricultural land in NY
(NASS, 2006) 3.1 billion value of agricultural
products (NASS, 2006)
Approximately 2.5 of NY agricultural land is
irrigated (NASS, 2002). Drought is already a
significant production constraint in many years.
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Vulnerabilities Sea-level rise

• Sea level rise with shoreline flooding, salt
  water intrusion and groundwater degradation in
  New Yorks coastal areas.

Three million people on Long Island are dependent
on groundwater resources
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Talk Outline

• Overview of NYS ClimAID project
• Evidence of a changing climate
• Climate model predictions for NYS
• Key vulnerabilities for NYS
• Adaptations

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Dealing with climate change through adaptation

• Proactive management
• Anticipating challenges and building resilience
• GOOD NEWS!
• New York has a wealth of water resources!

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NYS Water Resources

• 40 inches of average annual precipitation
• 1,236 sq. miles of lakes, ponds, reservoirs
• 577 miles of Great Lakes shoreline
• 52,337 miles of rivers and streams
• 1,530 sq. miles of estuaries, bays, and harbors
• 3,750 sq. miles of freshwater wetlands
• Extensive groundwater resources

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Multiple Scales of Adaptation

• Local Context specific adaptation strategies
• Regional Leadership
• Statewide government role
• National context for planning and policy
• Temporal scale lt10 yrs, 10-40 yrs, 40yrs

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Local

• Increase monitoring for water supply
• 2. Engage volunteer groups and private citizens
  to multiply agency efforts in monitoring and
  management. Give them training and tools.
• 3. Water quality
• Disconnect existing CSOs
• Update manure spreading practices
• Require septic system maintenance
• 4. Phased withdrawal from
• high-flood risk, floodplain areas
• Conduct buy-outs after floods
• Move wastewater treatment plants
• Transfer land to public parks

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Regional strategies

• Lead short, long-term planning tailored to the
  region
• Prioritize climate change issues and needs
• Planning documents will be key to access funds
  for implementation as they become available via
  Federal Stimulus/ other.
• Identify a centrally-located lead office to share
  resources, expertise, demonstration sites with
  surrounding region
• Organize monitoring networks and data collection
• E.g. water supply, floods, droughts.
• Organize rapid response plan and team

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State Gov Role

• Mainstream climate change into all planning and
  regulations update to reflect most recent
  climate data
• Funnel state and federal funds to implement
  projects
• Institutionalize mechanisms for long-term
  monitoring and centralized data collection
• Provide guidance and technical training
• Identify and alleviate bottlenecks inhibiting
  adoption
• Develop criteria for prioritization in face of
  limiting resources (e.g. vulnerability, ecosystem
  value, economics.)
• Support targeted research

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A National context...
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Greater political and economic pressure for
inter-basin water transfers to water-stressed
regions, both nationally and internationally?
The Great Lakes Basin contains 95 of the fresh
surface waters in North America and 20 of the
freshwater globally.
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Adaptation planning in a national context

• Pro-active planning of a statewide water program,
  including water conservation practices and
  pricing controls to manage during droughts, or
  export .

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Questions?