Economics in a new era

1
Economics in a new era

• Economic Impacts and Strategies
• By Brian Wang
• Sept 12, 2007

2
Overview

• Lead up to Molecular manufacturing
• Technology and world of 2015-2020
• Advanced self assembly, chemistry, DNA
  nanotechnology, highly scaled tools
• Nanofactories impact
• Fast production ? Infrastructure revisions
  years/months not decades
• Not just production ?Clear hurdles to other
  technology
• Choices that matter faster growth not just
  economic competition but to save lives

3
Background and review of the Acceleration of
Technology
Metamaterials and superlenses, New states of
matter
Adiabatic quantum computer
Superthread 100 times stronger than steel
Zyvex nanosolve additive
4
DNA robotic arm array
Virus assembled batteries
DNA origami 200-trillionths actual size map
Total genetic control Gene therapy, RNAi, RNA
activation, metagenomics, synthetic biology
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IBM nanogravure printing, 2 nanomater placements
Nanopantography (Billions of ion beams)
Fracture induced Structuring, 60 nm
-Thermochemical nanolithography (writes 10,000
times faster than DPN, mm/sec) dimensions down to
12 nanometers in width
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Convergence greater than sum of individual
technology parts


A lot of different technology developing
Molecular nanotechnology and technology
convergence
Makes what existed before more powerful and
accelerates convergence
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Improving technology that is underestimated

• Labs on a chip and bubble logic
• Nanomaterials revolution not just for stronger
  material (CNT reinforced aluminum, nanograin
  metal) but also batteries, fuel cells.
  CVD-diamond
• Superconductors
• Nanomembranes
• Lasers
• Wireless, software radio
• Robotics, automation, AI and UAVs
• Rapid prototyping, rapid manufacturing,
  claytronics
• RFIDs, smart dust and variations
• Cryocoolers, magnetic cooling, efficient
  condition control

8
Social change

• Mass wealth (15 million millionaires in 2015
  double 2004 amount)
• Extrapolation of Merrill Lynch wealth survey
• Triple the number of Tech angel investors in 2015
• UNH's venture research center 51,000 businesses
  raised angel funding from 234,000 individuals in
  2006
• 25.6 billion into US entrepreneurial ventures in
  2006
• http//www.boston.com/business/globe/articles/2007
  /03/20/investing_in_start_ups_by_wealthy_angels_ri
  ses_108/
• Rise of China, India and other countries
• Long term acceleration of economic growth
• More countries, companies and people able to fund
  technology and change

9
More companies and countries will be able to fund
and achieve disruptive changes
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Faster than Moores Law and the spread of Moores
law outside IT

• NAND memory
• System Integration (http//www.spectrum.ieee.org/j
  un06/3649)
• Graphics chips (general purpose GPUs)
• Falling price of DNA sequencing, synthesis

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2015 Projections

• 200,000 1 million qubit quantum computer
• Billions of artificial or simulated neurons
• NRAM (Nantero) and PRAM (Ovonics) memory
• Ovonic quantum control devices 2008-2013 enable
  flat computers
• 64 Terabyte flash drives (Samsung)
• Gene Therapy and gene doping
• Superthread carbon nanotubes common
• Wireless, fibercable superbroadband 100Mbps?5
  Gbps
• Comcast, Verizon, White space modem (Microsoft
  and others) overseas, NTT fiber demo results
• Gigapixel cameras
• Claytronics, Ubiquitous computing, wireless
  power/comm
• Chinas economy passes the USA 2018 - 3 years

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2015 Nanomaterials, Tools

• Carbon Nanotubes MWCNT 10k tons per year 2011,
  10-50/lb
• Carbon Nanotubes 40K-100K tons/year by 2015,
  1-5/lb or less
• Graphene
• Millions of higher precision parallel AFMs/STMs
  etc

13
DNA Sequencing cost and DNA synthesis
Cost to sequence genome (3 billion pairs) Largest synthesis 3M BP for ribosome
2007 100K 45K BP
2010 3K 1 M BP
2012 300-600 5M BP
2015 10-50 50M BP
Pre-full blown molecular manufacturing still has
powerful nanopore technology DNA factories help
with the synthesis, as does UK ideas factory
synthesis
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Pre-nanofactory

• A lot of Chinas production revolution based on
  speed and flexibility.
• China Makes, The World Takes
• http//www.theatlantic.com/doc/prem/200707/shenzhe
  n
• a company that has built up a brand name and
  relationships with retailers, and knows what it
  wants to promote and sell nextand needs to save
  time and money in manufacturing a product that
  requires a fair amount of assembly.
• The Chinese factories can respond more quickly,
  and not simply because of 12-hour workdays.
  Anyplace else, youd have to import different
  raw materials and components, Casey told me.
  Here, youve got nine different suppliers within
  a mile, and they can bring a sample over that
  afternoon. People think China is cheap, but
  really, its fast. Moreover, the Chinese
  factories use more human labor, and fewer
  expensive robots or assembly machines, than their
  counterparts in rich countries. People are the
  most adaptable machines, an American industrial
  designer who works in China told me. Machines
  need to be reprogrammed. You can have people
  doing something entirely different next week.

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About this time (2015-2025) full blown molecular
manufacturing

• What has been holding back technological change
  even against the powerful technology of 2015
  (2015-2025) ?
• Changing Infrastructure has still been hard
• Energy was taking decades to solve
• Roadblocks to realizing full computing potential
• Truly conquering space has still been hard
• Bad choices and governance too (expect that to
  persist)
• MM will provide the capacity to fix even the hard
  problems (energy, infrastructure, space) but the
  X factor is the choices that people collectively
  make

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Nanofactory capabilities

• A one-kilogram one-hour nanofactory could, if
  supplied with enough feedstock and energy, makes
  4 thousand tons of nanofactories and 8 thousand
  tons of products in a single day
• Possible to replace/upgrade more than our current
  production capability in weeks to months
• Change out earth based infrastructure multiple
  times per year
• World infrastructure X.0
• Even faster and more flexible not just the
  nanofactory but world production supply chain

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Capability to physically and technological
overcome barriers to space and economic goals can
be achieved
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Collective mental restrictions (consistently
wrong choices and bad governance/incentive
feedback structure) and that prevent full
capabilities from being developed must be overcome
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Some past technology has been underutilized and
underdeveloped and a small fraction of its
potential
Nuclear power and nuclear
propulsion
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Trying to give up good uses does not mean bad
uses are avoided it just means good uses are
reduced
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Any delays or production limitations for
molecular manufacturing

• If full-blown nanofactory molecular manufacturing
  does not happen until 2025 or so, there will be
  increasingly powerful molecular manipulations and
  powerful nanometer control capabilities
• Use the advanced nanometer manipulation systems
• Only use molecular manufacturing for critical
  components
• Even when we have diamondoid mechanosynthesis
  other simpler manufacturing can be used.
• Maximum energy and resource efficiency

22
We need to maintain momentum once we overcome
current challenges
23
Best non-molecular manufacturing plans and enable
and enhance them

• Dual mode transportation
• Mix of car and rail. Cars with guiderails.
• 3 to 6 times more efficient than standard cars
• Lets you go all electric, prevent accidents
• Linear Induction Motors (LIM) ?higher volumes,
  high speeds, no accidents
• Solar power in space and space colonization
• Current Dnepr Rocket, CP1/a-SiH (4300W/kg)
• Mirror / Laser arrays
• 100-144 kw lasers, Thirty two 4.5 KW laser diodes
• 30/watt 2006, 10/watt 2010, 2/watt 2015
• Food production ? stem cell factories

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Drilling down on Industries and parts of the
economy

• Automotive and Transportation
• Consumer Products
• Distribution
• Energy, Utilities and Chemicals
• Financial Services
• Healthcare
• Life Sciences
• Manufacturing
• Public Sector
• Retail
• Telecom, Media Entertainment

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Transportation and Distribution

• Clean, efficient energy and transportation
• Smart cars and highways (plans and prototypes but
  had chicken and egg problems)
• Molecular manufacturing mass produces chickens
  and eggs
• Virtual reality super halo communication rooms,
  physical moving avatars
• Local production less transportation of freight.
  Pipelines of feedstocks that cannot be locally
  produced
• Where possible change in place

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Revamping transportation

• In place modifications electric cars, buses,
  smart highways, platooning vehicles, blocking off
  city centers (park and switch to nano-Segways
  nano-golf carts)
• More radical Dual mode transportation
• Nanofactories on the base of a vehicle lay out
  guiderails.
• Adapt cars, trucks, buses
• Virtual reality replacement for travel
• Handle materials, waste in place
• Large scale bubble logic through sewers

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Is infrastructure being revamped Quarterly
?Yearly ? Longer ?

• Subscription model for upgrades
• After one or two revamps how much are the follow
  on revamps doing (how much progress and real
  difference from Excel 97 to Office 2005 ?)
• Do not want customers/people stuck with old and
  outdated models and their net worth tank with
  depreciating asset

28
Productivity and Growth

• Depending on how clever and bold we are
  collectively growth can rapidly increase to 20
  to 50 per year as full blown molecular
  manufacturing kicks in.
• After initial burst..what is longer term
  sustainable growth?
• Managing and maximizing hypergrowth will not be
  easy
• Fastest growing company lists
• http//money.cnn.com/magazines/business2/b2fastest
  growing/2007/
• http//www.inc.com/resources/inc500/2006/top25.htm
  l
• It will be critical to be able scale overall
  business quickly. Dot.com was a warm up

Increase energy efficiency 3-10 times, increase
usage 500 times. In 20 years at the 50 annual
rate, we would be past Kardashev level one (need
off earth power or far high density power
sources) 60 more years to K2.
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Restructuring for hypergrowth

• Initial certified inputs and outputs and scaling
  assessments. Compared against what might be
  displaced.
• Varying certifications. ie. Easy certification
  for some better power sources to displace
  dangerous coal power, but growing beyond that
  would have more stringent requirements
• Need multiple faster than real time simulations
  for assessing environmental and other impacts
• Cannot have multi-year studies and assessments
  and have good growth let alone hypergrowth
• Need to enable more builders of new industries
  and expander of industries
• Get people from just re-allocating without adding
  value
• Without restructuring some will be stuck at lower
  growth levels
• Strengthen entrepreneurship, venture capital and
  private equity

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More change than just production (Part 1 of 3)

• What scientific and engineering problems that
  were just out of reach are conquered by the new
  capabilities ?
• Wide scale molecularly precise real time analysis
  boosts scientific understanding
• Room temperature superconductors (nanostructured
  materials, phonon mediation)
• Enabling wave after wave of new powerful
  technology and change

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More change than just production (part 2 of 3)

• Nuclear fusion (Z-pinch, Colliding beam , laser)
• Mass produced high burn nuclear fission and large
  scale adsorption of ocean uranium and other
  minerals
• Super-charged solar power production
• Magnets, lasers, energy density, capacitance
• Inexpensive access to space from many different
  technology options

32
More change than just production (part 3 of 3)

• Nanomedicine
• Life Extension
• Capability enhancement
• AI and robotics
• Unblocking breakthroughs
• Maximizing physical effects
• Capacitance for lorentz propulsion
• Energy density
• Conversion efficiency
• Physics and science at the edges

33
Business strategies
Premium for speed and effective
responsiveness Detailed anticipation Effectiveness
in handling transitions
34
No limit/High Growth Businesses and Jobs

• Entrepreneurs, business owners, innovation
• Entertainers
• Space expansion, adventurers, explorers
• Various people to people interaction (Events,
  sports )
• Certain healthcare, health improvement and
  services
• Fashion, design, status
• Sales, marketing, branding, relationship building
• Many jobs not really part of high growth economy
  and relatively inert matter to civilization
  progress
• Economy can also grow by doing more of the same
  transactions
• X times more transactions in the same year
• New kinds of transactions

35
Strategies when technology is rapidly accelerating

• More projects should be game changers and
  leapfrogging
• Robust positioning and strategies in case of
  rapid change
• Forward view and rapid response
• Awareness of other situations globally and
  historically
• Look for leverage and creative ways to overcome
  bottlenecks
• Look at altering processes and creative
  bootstrapping. Deliver as much benefit as you can
  now. Get more when you revamp
• Collaborative Simulations to model choices and
  options
• Informed Choice management and negative impact
  mitigation
• Hypergrowth and hypercompetition

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Prudently spread bets, travel in the right
direction and to the right goalsGather
information and useful resources (lasting
relationships etc)
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More Technology for more robustness and ability
to tolerate persistent imperfection
Change may be required Slowing down probably a
bad choice
Some problems may not go away but may be more
tolerable
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Advancednano site

• http//advancednano.blogspot.com
• Brian Wang
• blwang_at_gmail.com
• Open for Q A

39
Choices and Competition

• Hyper speed game of rule-changing Go
• Build anew away from protected areas
• Take more turns
• Hypercompetition
• More choices, options and opportunities
• Singularity ?Technologically possible ?X
  companies are competing to do it

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2015 China has a big middle class

• China 140 million households (50) out of 280
  million with 6000-10000 (4RMB to 1USD)
• Up from 41 million (20) 2007 205 million
  households, 25000-40000RMB
• 59 million households (21.2) out of 280 million
  with 10000-25000 (4 RMB to 1USD)
• Up from 21 million (10) 2007 205 million
  households, 40000-100000RMB
• 65 in cities up from 50
• Source McKinsey Quarterly
• http//www.mckinseyquarterly.com/article_page.aspx
  ?ar1734L218L330

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Historical shifts to high growth

• Technology can provide productivity boom
• Shifts in leadership in China (1978) and India
  (1980s and 1991)
• Philippines recent shift
• Corruption, mismanagement and economic structure
  can limit growth

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Series of exponential modes

• Long-Term Growth As A Sequence of Exponential
  Modes, Robin Hanson Dept. of Economics, George
  Mason University
• Mode Doubling Date Began Doubles Doubles
  X Times
• Grows Time (DT) To Dominate of DT of WP
• ---------- --------- ----------- ------ -------
  --------
• Brain size 34M yrs 550M B.C. ? "16"
  64,000
• Hunters 230K yrs 2000K B.C. 7.2 8.7
  450
• Farmers 860 yrs 4700 B.C. 8.1 7.5
  200
• ?? 58 yrs 1730 3.9 3.2
  10
• Industry 15 yrs 1903 1.9 gt6.3
  80
• MNT X weeks 20XX
• MNT AGI Y days 20YY
• MNT AGI New Science vX

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GDP Equations
C is private consumption, G is public
consumption, NX is net exports, and I represents
investments, or savings. Note that in the Solow
model, we represent public consumption and
private consumption simply as total consumption
from both the public and government sector.
Cobb-Douglas function where Y represents the
total production in an economy. A represents
multifactor productivity (often generalized as
technology), K is capital and L is labor. Ex.
2 of the population moves from rural areas to
cities each year. People in cities have 3 times
the productivity (GDP per capita). Urbanization
would then add 6 GDP to annual growth
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Jobs
The stronger AI and automation is then the more
jobs are changed Fishing could be replaced by
stem cell food factories
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Assets

• Challenges for Asset classes
• Real estate - valuation change based on possibly
  lower cost of replacement
• Shifts in economic health of regions and cities
  could cause localized price collapses
• Adaptability and competitiveness of the people
  who make up the economy of a region is vital -
  able to shift and create new industries
• How to make creative destruction humane ?
• Under-employed should be preparing for the next
  waves
• Assets / jobs secondary to information (IP),
  creativity, relationships, branding, reputation

46
Andy Groves Healthcare planopportunity for
medical products

• http//www.wired.com/medtech/health/news/2007/04/a
  ndygrove_healthcare_qanda?currentPage2
• A near term example of a plan to overcome
  government inaction, circumventing slow changing
  infrastructure protectors
• First Keep elderly people at home as long as
  possible (an idea he calls "shift left"). Use
  high-tech gadgets to help them remember to take
  their medicine and monitor their health. In one
  year, if a quarter of the people now living in
  nursing homes went home, it would save more than
  12 billion, Grove says.
• Second, Grove advocates addressing the uninsured
  by building more "retail clinics" -- basic health
  care centers in drugstores and other outlets that
  can take care of problems that are presently, and
  expensively, addressed in emergency rooms.
• Lastly, unify medical records using the internet.
  In his vision, every patient carries a USB drive
  containing his or her medical records, which any
  doctor can download.

47
An Open Mind and creative solutions

• Is it impossible or are you thinking about a bad
  solution ? Has it already happened?
• Maybe another approach provides the benefits
  without the downsides or the challenges
• Teleportation OR rapid acceleration
• Holodeck OR VR
• No FTL but really good telescopes and fantastic
  in solar system mobility

48
Coaching those with different views of the world
and the future

• Provide information that they may not be aware to
  adjust their point of view
• Position strategies as precautionary plan B or
  keeping options open

49
Screens and form factors

• OLED
• Ovonic quantum control
• Separating functions
• Practical holography
• http//www.technologyreview.com/Infotech/18572/

Hologram from computer file Allow preview of
product
http//www.ivanhoe.com/science/story/2006/05/142si
.html
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Identifying the right problems for you and your
clients

• Are you prepared ? Familiar with big picture,
  learning curve
• Some of the details of problems and solutions
  matters are very important
• Tested processes
• Are the right questions being asked?
• Scoping and quantifying
• One problem or many?
• Other points of view and contexts