AN EXTINCTION OF LOGIC

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AN EXTINCTION OF LOGIC?
Dr. Patrick J. Michaels Senior Fellow in
Environmental Studies Cato Institute Professor
of Environmental Sciences University of Virginia
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EXTINCTIONS AND CLIMATE CHANGE
Counter-Paradigm View Until Global Warming
Became Popular Instead, Extinctions Were
Largely Driven by Population Dynamics and
Competitive Exclusion Pendulum Will
Eventually Swing More to the Middle
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Argentiere Glacier - 1966
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Argentiere Glacier - 1850
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IPCC Northern Hemisphere Temperature History
.
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Cold Season Temperature Trends (1946-1995)
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Warm Season Temperature Trends (1946-1995)
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SEVERAL IMPORTANT RECENT PAPERS
Parmesan, C., 1996. Climate and species range.
Nature, 382, 765-766. Parmesan, C., et al.,
1999. Poleward shifts in geographical ranges of
butterfly species associated with regional
warming. Nature, 399, 579580.
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CONCLUSIONS
Butterflies going extinct in Northern Mexico
because of Climate Change Butterflies are
expanding in British Columbia because of Climate
Change
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Parmesan, 1996 Butterfly Census Sites
Red triangle absence Blue triangle presence
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Warm Season Temperature Trends (1946-1995)
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UNITED NATIONS TEMPERATURE HISTORY ZONE OF
MAXIMUM EXTINCTION Northern Mexico
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UNITED NATIONS TEMPERATURE HISTORY ZONE OF
MAXIMUM EXPANSION Southern British Columbia
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TEMPERATURE CHANGE, HIGH-EXTINCTION
GRIDCELLS Southern California minus rural
Northern Mexico
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FINDINGS FOR EUROPEAN BUTTERFLIES
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NORTHERN END OF RANGE
65 of species extended range northward 35
exhibited no change 2 exhibited no change
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SOUTHERN END OF RANGE
5 shifted south 22 shifted northward
72 remained stable
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CONCLUSION Butterfly Diversity Increasing!
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WORLD WILDLIFE FUND, 1996
PREDICTION Drier weathercould be particularly
severe for birds in the Plains States of Canada
and the United States since half of all North
American ducks breed in prairie pothole wetlands
that could disappear as a result of global
warming.
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FACT
United Nations Precipitation Data North Central
U.S. and South Central Canada
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Gibbs, J. P., and A. R. Breisch. 2001. Climate
warming and calling phenology of frogs near
Ithaca, New York, 1900-1999. Conservation
Biology,15, 1175-1178.
PREDICTION November-June warming is making
frogs around Ithaca, New York croak earlier in
the spring. Compared 1900-1912 to the 1990s.
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FACT
Theres no significant difference in
temperature in the periods studied
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Kiesecker, J. M., A. R. Blaustein, and L. K.
Belden. 2001. Complex causes of amphibian
population declines. Nature, 410, 681-684.
CONCEPT Ultraviolet radiation is damaging toad
eggs in ponds in Oregons Cascade Range between
1990 and 1999 because of decreasing water levels
caused by lowered precipitation in the winter.
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FACTS
Theres no trend in October-March in the
Cascades. Five of the last six years in the study
period had above-average rainfall. What about the
entire period from 1912-45, which was drier than
any other?
October-March Precipitation, Oregon
Cascades Source U.S. National Climatic Data
Center
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MARQUEE SPECIES Penguins and Polar Bears
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WORLD WILDLIFE FUND, 2000 Polar Bears at Risk.
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20 populations of Polar Bears 46 stable,
17 in decline, 14 increasing, 23 unknown
Strange Math!
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ARCTIC TEMPERARTURE TRENDS 1950-1995 Przybylak,
International Journal of Climatology, 2000.
POLAR BEAR POPULATION TRENDS World Wildlife
Foundation
Yellow unknown green stable blue
decreasing red increasing
Yellowno data greenno significant
change bluecooling red warming
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Antarctic Temperature History (1956-2000)
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Temperature History and Penguin Breeding Success
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Root, T.L., et al., 2003. Fingerprints of global
warming on wild animals and plants. Nature, 421,
57-60. Parmesan, C., and G. Yohe, 2003. A
globally coherent fingerprint of climate change
impacts across natural systems. Nature, 421,
37-42.
CONCEPTS changes in the distribution of species
are consistent with warming. Covered prominently
by both New York and Los Angeles Times.
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FACTS
No one, author or reporter, bothered to note the
implications of the math.
Root Average northward movement is 3.8 miles
per decade, or 2,000 feet per year. This would
put Washington DCs biota in Baltimore around
2102. Parmesan At the current rate of change,
spring, 2103 in Washington will arrive at the
same time it does now in Raleigh, North
Carolina. (Climate models generally predict
constant, not increasing rates of warming)
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THE MASSIVE EXTINCTION OF LOGIC
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Thomas, C.D., et al, 2004. Extinction risk from
climate change. Nature 427, 145-148 QUOTE OF
THOMAS IN WASHINGTON POST Were talking about
1.25 million species. Its a massive
number. QUOTE FROM PAPER Estimates for
minimum expected climate change
0.8-1.7C-p.147 are 9-13 extinction with
dispersal and 22-31 without dispersal.
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FACT
Weve already had this change. Where was the
mass extinction from climate change? How could
the reviewers miss this?
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Balsam Fir Distribution