Country Presentation of Bangladesh

1
Country Presentation of Bangladesh
on

• National Practices of Compilation of National
  Accounts Statistic

• 
  Prepared By
• Abul Kalam Azad, Deputy Director
• Mohammad Shaheen, Deputy Director
• Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics

2
Outline of the Presentation

• Background and Current Situation
• Measurement of GDP
• Quarterly National Accounts
• Methodology and data sources
• Limitations and challenges
• Plans for SNA 1993/2008
• Required Technical Assistance

3
Background and Current Situation

• Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS) is the
  National Statistical Office of the Government of
  Bangladesh and provides official statistics under
  the policy guidance of the Ministry of Planning
  through Planning Division and participates in
  policy monitoring and evaluation through various
  inter-ministerial and inter-agency committees.
• The BBS being the centralized data producing
  agency of the Government, is entrusted with the
  responsibility of collecting, collating and
  disseminating statistical data required for
  socio-economic management and development
  activities of the Government.
• In august 1975 Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics
  was re-organized and set up as an integrated
  National Statistical Organization.

4
Measurement of GDP

• The national accounts of Bangladesh are compiled
  by the National Accounting Wing of the Bangladesh
  Bureau of Statistics since independence of
  Bangladesh.
• The estimates are based on the concept,
  definition, classification and methodology of the
  best practice document 1993 System of National
  Accounts.
• GDP by production approach is based on value
  added by industrial activity. Value added is
  calculated as gross output less intermediate
  consumption .
• GDP by expenditure category is calculated as the
  sum of the final use of goods and services
  through final consumption, capital formation and
  export less imports.

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Measurement of GDP

• GDP estimates at producer price/market price
  (base year 1995-96) following SNA-93
• Difficulties in measuring growth or changes in
  output over a period of time when there is more
  than one base year.
• BBS compiled a consistent time series of national
  accounts aggregates of the old series (1984-85
  base) linked with the new series (1995-96 base )
  up to 1980-81.
• Estimation of major national accounts aggregates
  (GDP, GNI, consumption, Investment, Savings etc.)
• 1972-73 to 1983-84 (SNA68), 1984-85(rebasing),
  1995-96 (revision and rebasing(SNA93)

6
Quarterly National Accounts

• BBS does not compile QNA
• On experimental basis BBS compiled an historic
  series of QGDP for 7 years a total of 28 quarters
  starting from 1995 to 2002
• This exercise was done for the national accounts
  compilers to be acquainted with the methodology
  and concept of QGDP and also to asses further
  requirement of data for compiling QGDP
• Adequate and timely data flow is not available

7
Methodology and Data Sources

1. Agriculture and forestry Sector

• Crops and Horticulture
• Data on production volume of about 100 crops,
  representing 100 percent of total crop output,
  are taken from Agriculture wing of BBS.
• For tea, cotton, and rubber, data are taken from
  the respective development boards.
• The value-added estimates for crops are based on
  gross production less intermediate consumption or
  production inputs.

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Methodology and Data Sources

1. Agriculture and forestry Sector

• Crops and Horticulture
• Crop wise harvest prices are obtained from the
  Director of Agricultural marketing.
• A fixed ratio is applied for obtaining the input
  costs which is based on the survey of the use of
  Inputs in major Agriculture Crops by BBS.
• Information of gross output and input costs for
  horticulture have been collected by the sub
  district statistical Offices of BBS through field
  survey.

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Methodology and Data Sources

1. Agriculture and forestry Sector

Animal Farming

• Agriculture censuses 1983-84 and 1996 as
  benchmark
• Extrapolated by the survey of livestock and
  poultry of
• 1996/2005.
• Animal farming include (i) Meat (ii) Milk, (iii)
  Hides and skin (iv) Cow dung, (v) Animal fats
  and others (vi) Poultry birds and eggs
• Prices used for valuation of these products are
  collected from DAM.
• On an average 26.6 of the value of output is
  deducted as IC to obtain the GVA of this
  sub-sector.

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Methodology and Data Sources

1. Agriculture and forestry Sector

• Forest and related services
• Private forestry output is based on a benchmark
  production estimates based on the 1996 census of
  Agriculture and extrapolated annually using the
  production volume of crops as an proxy indicator,
  the estimates are validated by periodic survey of
  farm forest and household expenditure survey.
• Technical co-efficient derived from Input-Output
  table for 1993-94 are used to estimate Gross
  Value added.

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Methodology and Data Sources
2. Fishing

• The activities in the fishing sector include
• commercial fishing in high sea, coastal and
  offshore waters and catching and gathering fish
  from inland rivers, canals, lakes, haors, bills,
  ponds etc. and subsistence fishing in inland
  waters.
• The gross value added of this sector is estimated
  by applying the production approach. This
  involves estimation of the total value of output
  in producer value and deducting there from inputs
  ( in purchasers prices).

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Methodology and Data Sources
2. Fishing

• Data on fishery production are taken from the
  Directorate of Fisheries and the data is
  validated by results of HIES and foreign trade
  statistics.
• Prices by species types are obtained from the
  Directorate of Agriculture Marketing (DAM).
• Base years price is used for revaluation

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Methodology and Data Sources
3. Mining and Quarrying Sector

• The activities of this sector include extraction
  of natural gas and production of limestone, white
  clay, stones and boulders, sands and crude salt
  production.
• Basic data (production, intermediate input and
  prices) for mining and quarrying of natural gas,
  limestone and white clay are taken from state
  corporation engaged in the activity
• output of sand and gravel are indirectly
  estimated as a fixed ratio of cement, other
  product of quarrying are collected by BBS through
  survey.
• Data obtained from BCIC, Regional office of BBS,
  Petrobangla

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Methodology and Data Sources
4. Manufacturing

• Estimate of gross value added of large
  manufacturing ( 10 or over employed persons)
  enterprises , which represent around 70 percent
  of total manufacturing value added is based on
  BBS Census of Manufacturing Industries ( CMI) as
  benchmark,
• Estimates are extrapolated based on quantum index
  of industrial production compiled monthly by
  BBS.
• PPI (Mfg.) is used for revaluation
• Data Sources CMI Report, CIPS of BBS BSCIC
  report

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Methodology and Data Sources
4. Manufacturing

• Value added estimate of small scale industry is
  mainly based on 1991 census of small scale
  cottage industries conducted by BSCIC. As the
  BSCIC census did not cover handloom sub-sector,
  for estimating aggregate value added from the
  small scale manufacturing estimates, BBS handloom
  census are taken into account, the bench mark
  estimates are then extrapolated.
• The non-farm economic activities reports of BBS
  and QIIP of small industries of BBS are other
  source of small scale industry.

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Methodology and Data Sources
5. Electricity, Gas, and Water

• Basic data for direct estimates of gross value
  added of these sectors are taken from government
  enterprises and local governments providing the
  services.
• Electricity, gas, and water price indices are
  used to obtain value added at constant prices.
• Data Sources PDB, REB, DESA, WASA, Petrobangla

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Methodology and Data Sources
6. Construction

• Gross value of construction is derived from the
  commodity flow of main construction materials
  such as cement, iron and steel.
• Coefficient of construction activity in the
  input-output table provides the parameter for
  estimating gross value added.
• Building material price index compiled by BBS is
  used as deflator.

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Methodology and Data Sources
7. Wholesale and retail trade

• Commodity flow of domestically produced goods and
  imports is used for trade sector. This sector
  covers only whole sale and retail trade services.
  
• The trade margin is treated as gross output of
  this sector and 8.36 of the values are taken as
  intermediate consumption.

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Methodology and Data Sources
7. Wholesale and retail trade

• Trade margin is derived annually from special
  studies and expert opinion.
• Value added ratios, taken from the BBS annual
  integrated survey of non-farm economic activities
  and input-out-put table, are multiplied to the
  estimated value of trade margins to derive gross
  value added.
• WPI (all group) used for revaluation
• Data sources Bangladesh Bank, BBS

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Methodology and Data Sources
8. Transport, Storage and Communication

• Transport data are derived into air, land and
  water, differentiated into public and private
  sector.
• Data on public sector including Bangladesh Biman
  are taken from financial statement and balance
  sheet of government corporations engaged in
  these services.
• Gross value added for private transport is
  derived on the basis of numbers of vehicles
  registered with the relevant government units
  multiplied by a fixed value added per vehicle
  estimated from periodic surveys or special
  studies.

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Methodology and Data Sources
8. Transport, Storage and Communication

• Price index on fare and fright are used to
  inflate the estimate to current price.
• Communication sub-sector includes activities of
  Bangladesh Post Office and Bangladesh Telephone
  and Telegraph Board.
• Out put is based on total receipts for the
  services rendered. Deducting intermediate
  consumption from the output, the value added is
  obtained.
• Privately owned communication such as mobile
  phone, fax, and courier services are also
  included as far as data is available.

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Methodology and Data Sources
8. Transport, Storage and Communication

• Storage sub-sector is divided into urban and
  rural storage. the data source for urban storages
  is the cold storage association.
• Storage capacity on rural areas is estimated with
  the help of the benchmark data obtained from the
  agriculture censuses and is validated by the
  survey on private storage.
• Deflated by House Rent Index (HRI) to obtain
  the value added at constant prices.

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Methodology and Data Sources
9. Hotel and restaurant services

• Output of this sector is estimated from the
• Annual Integrated survey of Non-farm economic
  activities, 1989-90,
• Report on Annual Establishment and Institution
  Survey 1992-93 and also survey findings of the
• Report on Survey of Selected Economic Activities
  1995-96.
• The output of hotels and restaurants is measured
  by the service which is the value of the sale
  receipts net of food costs plus receipts from
  other services rendered, rentals, etc.

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Methodology and Data Sources
10. Financial Intermediation
(a) Banking

• Value added of this sector is measured through
  production method.
• Net interest receipt plus actual service charges
  (rental income, commission and other fees) are
  added up to obtain the value of gross output.
• Intermediate consumption is subtracted to have
  the value added of this sector.

25
Methodology and Data Sources
10. Financial Intermediation
(a) Banking

• Annual financial statements available from public
  and private banks provide the basic data for
  direct estimate of gross value added for banking.
  
• Stock Exchange provides financial auxiliary
  services in the economy.
• Values added from Stock exchanges are also taken
  into account. Estimates excludes small and other
  informal units engaged in intermediation services
  and non-government institutions engaged in small
  deposits and lending operations.

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Methodology and Data Sources
10. Financial Intermediation
(b) Insurance

• The value of output in Insurance sub-sector
  comprises net retained premium, investment
  income, re-insurance income as well as services
  rendered by insurance agents, brokers etc.
• Intermediate consumption is subtracted to get the
  value added.
• Annual reports of the concerned insurance
  companies are the sources of the data.

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Methodology and Data Sources
11. Real state, Renting and Business activities

• Production approach is used. Number of own
  occupied dwelling by urban and rural areas are
  obtained from the population census which is used
  as bench mark data.
• Average annual house rent (as per HES) is applied
  to provide estimate of gross output.
• Maintenance cost is treated as intermediate
  consumption. Owner-occupied dwellings out-put is
  valued as the estimated rentals that tenants
  would pay for similar accommodation.

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Methodology and Data Sources
12. Public administration

• Budget and actual government expenditure of
  central and local government serve as the basis
  for estimation of gross value added data on
  central government are taken from the Ministry of
  Finance while those of the local government are
  based on annual questionnaire distributed to the
  local government units by the BBS. Wages and
  salaries are considered as value added of this
  sector.

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Methodology and Data Sources
13. Education

• The estimate are prepared both for government and
  privately managed educational institutions and
  education related activities.
• For public institutions, gross value added is
  taken to be the same as the total wages and
  salaries of teachers and other non academic
  staff employed in educational institutions.
• Data public portion are obtained from Government
  budget/ expenditure on wages and salaries of
  educational personnel.

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Methodology and Data Sources
13. Education

• The data for private educational services are
  estimated from the report of the survey on
  Private Education Services in Bangladesh,
  population census, Labour force survey and Annual
  integrated survey on Non-farm Economic
  activities.
• Current estimates are obtained by using consumer
  price index (CPI, Govt. employee, Data generation
  group)

31
Methodology and Data Sources
14. Health and Social work

• For Public health sector, gross value added is
  taken as equivalent to the budget expenditure on
  wages and salaries of the doctors and other
  medical and non-medical staff.
• Survey of private health services 1997-98
  provides benchmark information on CE, IC, CFC and
  Os.
• Benchmark estimates of incomes of the medical
  professionals (those are in private practices)
  are taken into account for estimation of value
  added of this sector.

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Methodology and Data Sources
15. Community, Social and Personal Service
Sector

• Net earning per person of the benchmark year is
  multiplied by the number of professional or
  miscellaneous services personnel to arrive value
  added at constant prices of that particular
  group.
• Value added of all the groups are summed up to
  obtain total value added of this sector.
• Current price estimates are obtained by inflating
  constant price estimate using wage rate index.

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Limitations Challenges

• For compilation of GDP by production method,
  there are various types of limitations in respect
  of data coverage and methodology (prices, input,
  output technical coefficients/ mark-ups etc.)
• Appropriate price deflators CPI, WPI, WRI, FFI
  etc.
• Lack of timely data
• Required surveys are not regular
• Men power shortage
• Insufficient fund

34
Plans for 1993/2008 SNA

• Since 1995-96 GDP estimates following SNA-93
• Not yet planning for SNA 2008
• Regularly compiled Production account and
  Expenditure based GDP

35
Required technical assistance

• Consultation services
• Assistance for various surveys on the areas
  lacking data, for example data on tourism sector,
  different service sectors like private health,
  private education and so on
• Training

36
Thank You