California Energy Security Project: What climate science can do for the energy sector

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California Energy Security ProjectWhat climate
science can do for the energy sector

• Tim P. Barnett
• David W. Pierce
• Scripps Institution of Oceanography
• La Jolla, CA

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Purpose

• Determine the economic value of climate forecasts
  to the energy sector.
• Energy sector already uses weather forecasts, but
  longer term climate information is not often
  used.
• There is a great opportunity here
• One-year project, funded by NOAA.

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Stumbling blocks

• Climate forecasts give probabilities, not
  certainties
• Working with the industry to show how this
  information can be used
• Forecasts can be hard to understand
• Our job is to provide what is needed, in a useful
  form
• Regulatory issues
• Industry actions have to be doable in the
  framework established by the Public Utility
  Commission

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Project Overview
Scripps Inst. Oceanography University of
Washington Georgia Inst. Tech
Academia
California Energy Commission California ISO
San Diego Gas Elec. SoCal Gas PacifiCorp SAIC
State Partners
Industrial Partners
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Example 1. North Pacific Oscillation
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Why the NPO matters
High pressure associated with the NPO generates
winds from the north west which bring cold,
arctic air into the western U.S. during winter
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North Pacific Oscillation (cont'd)

• Climate information likelihood of a warm or cold
  winter
• Energy decision purchase gas on long-term
  contracts, or spot market

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2. Streamflow predictions hydropower

• Dams subject to many rules
• Must have capacity to prevent floods must not
  release so much can't refill etc.
• Dam releases in Pacific Northwest planned only
  after snowpack measured in mid December
• Streamflow forecasts would let power be generated
  safely earlier in the year
• Worth 40M to 153M per year.

Hamlet, Huppert, Lettenmeier 2002, J. Water
Resources Planning and Management
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Hydropower (cont'd)

• Climate information seasonal precipitation
  outlook
• Energy decision when to release water for
  hydropower generation

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3. California "Delta Breeze"

• An important source of forecast load error
  (CalISO)
• Big events can change load by 500 MW (gt1 of
  total)
• Direct cost of this power 250K/breeze day (40
  days/year 10M/year)
• Indirect costs pushing stressed system past
  capacity when forecast is missed!

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NO delta Breeze
Sep 25, 2002 No delta breeze winds carrying hot
air down California Central valley. Power
consumption high.
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Delta Breeze
Sep 26, 2002 Delta breeze starts up power
consumption drops gt500 MW compared to the day
before!
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Delta Breeze (cont'd)

• Climate information chance of a delta breeze in
  two days
• Energy decision whether or not to fire up
  peaking plants (take a day to get going)

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Where we could go from here
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Climate variations
El Nino North
Pacific Oscillation (NPO)
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affect energy
supply
demand
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and therefore decisions.
Environment vs. Hydropower
Urban vs. Agriculture
Long term contracts vs. Spot market
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Water-Energy interaction
Climate Forecast
Water Supply Forecast
Energy Supply Forecast
Public and Private Stakeholders
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An Energy-Water Opportunity
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An Energy-Water Opportunity

• Water and power are regional issues -- need a
  broad, integrated look at the issue

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An Energy-Water Opportunity

• Water and power are regional issues -- need a
  broad, integrated look at the issue
• Water and energy systems already stressed to
  their limits -- climate variations can push
  things over the edge

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An Energy-Water Opportunity

• Water and power are regional issues -- need a
  broad, integrated look at the issue
• Water and energy systems already stressed to
  their limits -- climate variations can push
  things over the edge
• The pieces to do this problem are already there
  -- but no one has brought them all together yet

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An Energy-Water Opportunity

• Water and power are regional issues -- need a
  broad, integrated look at the issue
• Water and energy systems already stressed to
  their limits -- climate variations can push
  things over the edge
• The pieces to do this problem are already there
  -- but no one has brought them all together yet
• A project whose time has come

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