Title: Trends: The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly An NAISAISGW Trustee Workshop
1Trends The Good, the Bad, and the UglyAn
NAIS/AISGW Trustee Workshop Patrick F. Bassett,
NAIS President
2Presidents Report The Good, the Bad, and the
Ugly
- 1966, Sergio Leone Satire of a world at war
(Southeast Asia) - Violent, unpredictable, and hostile landscape
- World where villains prevailed, betrayals were
common, and alliances were ephemeral and shifting
- G, B U the VUCA U future. While not all of
the trends will impact any single school, some of
the trends will impact all of our schools
3Trend 1 Challenges with Demand, Pricing, and
Financial Sustainability
- The Bad Congressional hearings and threats on
escalating college tuitions canary in the
mineshaft. - The Ugly Perfect storm of four dangerous
trends coalescing 1.) a looming recession 2.) a
shrinking demographic 3.) a continuing trend of
high tuition increases 4.) a disappearance of
the middle class, not only in the country but
also in our schools - The Good School task forces re-thinking the
entire financial model. New tools on the horizon.
4Average DC-area Tuitions 2007 - 08 22,900 (Gr.
12) 19,700 (Gr. 6)
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6Trend 1 New Tools for Financial Sustainability
7Trend 2 Runaway Costs
- The Bad We are America We have redefined
luxuries as necessities, spent too much, saved
too little, and borrowed breathlessly against the
future. - When it comes time to build a new building, the
image we start with
8Trend 2 Runaway Costs
- In Xanadu did Kubla Khan
- A stately pleasure-dome decree (the new
student center) - Where Alph, the sacred river, ran
- Through caverns measureless to man (the new gym)
- Down to a sunless sea.
(the new natatorium) - Belt-tightening and reassessment here or coming
- Questions of what is really important to fund
and whats not emerging. Building or Financial
Aid? - Wrong question at budget time is, How much more
can we charge? Right question to ask is, How can
we offer excellence while moderating
price increase? Be the value(s)-leader?
9Trend 2 Runaway Costs
- The Ugly The law of unintended consequences
losing the middle class and the upper middle
class - Were becoming like Porsche, indisputably best
of breed but so highly priced that its not even
worth the time for most to go to the dealership
to take a test drive. - Mirror image of value proposition for college.
- Serving the top 3 percent of families gt200K
- So what? Values and diversity mix important.
10Trend 2 Runaway Costs
- The Good Moving on up families, the newly
affluent, can be wooed. Great schools finding
ways to keep the base of middle class kids. - financial aid funding expanding to specifically
address the woes of the middle class. - financial aid policies changing to include more
merit aid to attract those on the affordability
fence.
11Trend 3 Giving Under Pressure
- The Bad College alumni giving down this year,
and the percentage of alumni making a donation
fell in each of the last 2 years. - The Ugly Loss of control of your image and
message via the new tools of the data aggregator
websites and social networks Charity Navigator,
FaceBook, Wikipedia, even RateYourTeachers.com.
Digital dirt on schools. - The Good While participation rates are down (for
alums and grandparents) or flat (for parents and
trustees), average giving adjusted for
inflation is up significantly over time.
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13Trend 4 The War for Talent Demographic
Sustainability
- The Bad Talent pool challenges on the horizon.
- Boomer class leaking away as retirement beckons.
- Fresh recruits from the bottom of the pool, from
non-selective colleges and universities. - Price for the best rising.
- The Ugly Millennials hard to manage
- Expect immediate rewards and gratification from
the workplace, anticipate their next job after
just landing their current job, show little
patience with workplace conventions - What IS it with you people and 830 am?
- Sign of the times Millennials moving home
Kippers - Kids in Parents Pockets Eroding Retirement
Savings
14Trend 4 The War for Talent Demographic
Sustainability
- The Good Theory of generations promises
Millenials as problem-solvers on a global stage. - 20-something Millennials exactly the kind of
young people we need to hire. - Lots of the most gifted, inventive, and
idealistic from the top of their class in
Americas most prestigious colleges and
universities apply for Teach for America - Lots of Millennials in the field now and their
brothers and sisters in our schools are budding
capitalists and future social entrepreneurs Free
Rice Orphans Against AIDS,
Unite for Sight just the beginning.
15Trend 4 The War for Talent
- The Good Millenials as problem-solvers on a
global stage. - The good news Well be attractive to smart,
idealistic, entrepreneurial young peopleif we
get smart on how to recruit them give them
leadership, social justice, change agenda
opportunities. - NAIS Career Center mailings to the top colleges
and universities and ads in Ed Week and on the
New York Times online Job Board -- and through
that channel, to your school..
16Trend 5 Global Environmental Sustainability
Gaining Traction
- The Bad Growing isolationist and nativist
sentiments in the country. Exasperation that
globalism is just one more thing to teach our
kids in an already overcrowded curriculum. - The Ugly The growing size of our carbon
footprint as individual organizations and as an
industry We cant lead the charge to
environmental change until we model the change.
17Trend 5 Global Environmental Sustainability
Gaining Traction
- The Good An emergent agreement on what it means
to be a citizen of the world. - Kwame Anthony Appiah sees a compassionate
realpolitik or cosmopolitanism, where we
recognize the worlds total inter-connectivity
and the impact we have on others, and take
responsibility accordingly. - Global Resources www.nais.org/go/global
- Cosmopolitanism at NAIS Challenge 20/20 Adding
our students and schools to the list of
Millennial social entrepreneurs.
18Trend 5 Global Environmental Sustainability
Gaining Traction
- Challenge 20/20 team of 8th graders from Fay
School (MA) and their 9th grade counterparts from
South Saigon International School (Vietnam)
created Foveo, chocolate bars and bottled water,
whose proceeds will go to disaster relief around
the world. - Mandarin teachers Gap Year Pilot
19Trend 5 Global Environmental Sustainability
Gaining Traction
- The environmental revolution in independent
schools, led by our own social entrepreneurs, by
building green (LEED-certified building
www.usgbc.org ), by teaching green
(www.nais.org/go/green), and by living green
(www.greenschoolsalliance.org). - The new 3Rs of environmental sustainability
Reduce, re-use, and recycle.
20- The Good, The Bad, and The Ugly.
- Hasnt it always been so?
- Brutal facts the combination of the bad
and ugly. - Counterbalanced by unshakeable beliefs, the
good. - The historical record We prevail even in dire
circumstances, since we have the freedom and
capacity to sacrifice, to improvise, and to
change course. - Independent schools have the leadership will to
do what necessary and whats right.
21The End! (See related slides in Appendix)
22http//www.nytimes.com/2008/03/07/nyregion/07chart
er.html?_r1refeducationorefslogin
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25Return
26- Cosmopolitanism- Kwame Anthony Appiah Core
moral ideas embedded in the conception of basic
human rights needs, options, protection (pp.
162-163) - people should have basic needs met for life to be
decent and tolerable health, food, shelter, and
education - people should have options to exercise (or not
exercise as they see fit) the rights to have
children to enjoy liberty (freedom of movement,
assembly, expression, religion) to exercise
sexual expression with a consenting partner - people should have protection from preventable
harm brutality needless pain contempt from
individuals or groups. - PFB The 3Rs of the Second Curriculum
respect, responsibility, and reverence/resilienc
e.
27- Cosmopolitanism- Kwame Anthony Appiah Core moral
ideas embedded in the conception of basic human
rights needs, options, protection (pp. 162-163) - People should have basic needs met for life to
be decent and tolerable health, food, shelter,
and education - People should have options to exercise (or not
exercise as they see fit) the rights to have
children to enjoy liberty (freedom of movement,
assembly, expression, religion) to exercise
sexual expression with a consenting partner - People should have protection from preventable
harm brutality needless pain contempt from
individuals or groups. - PFB The 3Rs of the Second Curriculum
respect, responsibility, and reverence /
resilience.