Human Social Dynamics at the Santa Fe Institute

1
Human Social Dynamicsat the Santa Fe Institute

• Past triumphs promising directions

2
Human Social Dynamicspast triumphs
From a group meeting at SFI last week
evolution
innovation
Sugarscape Echo Anasazi Bali
A-Life
evolutionary algorithm
dynamical systems
Pgame theory
actors
cognition
artificial stock markets
emotions
evolutionary game theory
networks
eeconomies

emergence
3
Human Social Dynamicspast triumphs
From a group meeting at SFI last week
evolution
innovation
Sugarscape Echo Anasazi Bali
A-Life
evolutionary algorithm
dynamical systems
Pgame theory
actors
cognition
artificial stock markets
emotions
evolutionary game theory
networks
eeconomies

emergence
Rethinking major paradigms equilibrium theory,
rational actor model
4
Human Social Dynamicspast triumphs

• From a group meeting at SFI
• Elements of a new paradigm
• Societies as co-created, out-of- equilibrium
  dynamical systems
• Generated by agents with bounded
  knowledge/rationality
• Affected by past states externalities
• local interactions may produce emergent global
  structure or properties

5
Human Social Dynamicspast triumphs

• From a group meeting at SFI
• Elements of a new paradigm
• Societies as co-created, out-of- equilibrium
  dynamical systems
• Generated by agents with bounded
  knowledge/rationality
• Affected by past states externalities
• local interactions may produce emergent global
  structure or properties

Cross- disciplinary perspectives
Cross- disciplinary perspectives
6
Human Social Dynamicspast triumphs

• SFI working papers 1994-2003 Uniquely
  interdisciplinary???

Resident faculty
External faculty
Postdocs
Other
7
Human Social Dynamicspast triumphs
Some Past SFI hits Prosocial behavior Tech/org
Landscape Anasazi,Bali, Mesa Verde Echo Sugarscape
Florence DAT/ASM/DAD Econo-physics Small
worlds Comp Political Economy Learning in
games Increasing Returns
8
Human Social Dynamicspast triumphs
Some Past SFI hits Anasazi,Bali, Mesa
Verde Echo Sugarscape Florence DAT/ASM/DAD Econo-p
hysics Small worlds Prosocial behavior Tech/org
Landscape Comp Political Economy Learning in
games Increasing Returns Etc.!!!
Long Term Implications Agent-Based
Modeling Swarm etc. Learning Bounded
Rat/ZI Dis-equilibrium Networks Robustness Communi
cation Organization Innovation/Novelty Scaling
Origins Alife Adaptive Computation Theoretical
Computation Evol Biology Psychology Economics Ant
hropology Physics
9
Human Social Dynamicsat the Santa Fe Institute

• What are we doing?
• Social innovation
• Emotions, cognition, learning
• Evolution of networks exchange
• Sociocultural evolution
• Political violence
• Market evolution finance
• Gene-culture-society-language coevolution
• Robustness of Human Natural Systems

10
Human Social Dynamics Social Innovation
Neutral networks from biology to economics

• Consider the technological landscape as a search
  space
• by muddling through, firms may find new peaks

11
Human Social Dynamics Social Innovation
Neutral networks from biology to economics

• Consider the technological landscape as a search
  space
• by muddling through, firms may find new peaks
• how does communication affect coordination?

12
Human Social Dynamics Social Innovation
Promising directions

• What are the sources of novelty?
• When do systems equilibrate?
• Where do solutions differ
• from classical theory?
• Are there stable regimes?
• Punctuated equilibria?

13
Human Social Dynamics Social Innovation
Promising directions Institutional Innovation

• Emergence persistence of inequality
• Scale effects tipping points

14
Human Social Dynamics Social Innovation
Promising directions Institutional Innovation

• Emergence persistence of inequality
• Scale effects tipping points
• Robustness of decisions in uncertain
• economic environments
• Robust settlements of civil wars

15
Human Social Dynamics Social Innovation
Promising directions Organizational Innovation

• Dynamical models of transposition of networks
• From banking to families to politics!

16
Human Social Dynamics Social Innovation
Promising directions Organizational Innovation

• Dynamical models of transposition of networks
• From banking to families to politics!
• Impact of creation of multiple networks on new
  institutional forms

17
Human Social Dynamics Social Innovation
Promising directions Organizational Innovation

• Dynamical models of transposition of networks
• From banking to families to politics!
• Impact of creation of multiple networks on new
  institutional forms
• Coevolution of networks- from Medici Florence to
  Silicon Valley
• Regions of innovation

18
Human Social Dynamics Emotions, cognition,
learning
Past triumphs

• Computational models of learning in games
• Modeling of emotions decision making
• Homo reciprocans!

19
Human Social Dynamics Emotions, cognition,
learning
Promising directions

• Emotional basis for cooperation punishment
• Integration of neural, behavioral evolutionary
  approaches

20
Human Social Dynamics Emotions, cognition,
learning
Promising directions

• Emotional basis for cooperation punishment
• Integration of neural, behavioral
  evolutionary approaches
• Linking human developmental neurobiology with
• behavioral analysis of social, emotional,
  cognitive processes

21
Human Social Dynamics Emotions, cognition,
learning
Promising directions

• Emotional basis for cooperation punishment
• Integration of neural, behavioral evolutionary
  approaches
• Linking human developmental neurobiology with
• behavioral analysis of social, emotional,
  cognitive processes
• -gt a better foundation for both education and
  medical interventions

22
Human Social Dynamics Evolution of networks
exchange
Past triumphs

• Double auction tournament
• Artificial stock markets
• Small world networks

23
Human Social Dynamics Evolution of networks
exchange
Promising directions

• Network dynamics
• Role of innovation
• Emergence of local hierarchies,
• trading regimes, cohesion
• Integration with other programs
• (from food webs to emotions)

24
Human Social Dynamics Sociocultural
evolution
Past triumphs

• Evolution of prosocial behavior
• Sugarscape
• Niche construction
• Gene-culture coevolution
• Anasazi, Mesa Verde, Bali

25
Human Social Dynamics Sociocultural
evolution
Promising directions

• Cycles of sociocultural development
• (origins of early states models of collapse
  world systems)

26
Human Social Dynamics Sociocultural
evolution
Promising directions

• Cycles of sociocultural development
• (origins of early states models of collapse
  world systems)
• Human life course
• (synthesis of evol. biol. economics
• add temporal dimension to wealth transfer)

27
Human Social DynamicsPolitical Violence
Promising directions

• Robustness of settlements of conflicts
• Spatio-temporal patterns of political violence
• Models from epidemiology punctuated
  equilibrium
• Risk/gain internal models of participants
• Proximity effects, path dependence, complex
  causation

28
Human Social DynamicsMarket evolution
Finance
Past triumphs

• Transcending General Equilibrium Theory
• out-of-equilibrium analytic methods
• Adaptive agent models of markets
• Critique of rational actor models
• Taxonomies of money exchange
• Zero-intelligence agents

29
Human Social DynamicsMarket evolution
Finance
Promising directions

• Physics of markets
• (Statistical mechanics of financial markets)
• (incremental increases in agent intelligence )
• (Prediction of market behavior from aggregate
• order flows)

30
Human Social DynamicsMarket evolution
Finance
Promising directions

• Physics of markets
• (Statistical mechanics of financial markets)
• (incremental increases in agent intelligence )
• (Prediction of market behavior from aggregate
• order flows)
• Evolution of profit-seeking behaviors

31
Human Social DynamicsGene-culture-language-so
ciety coevolution
Promising directions

• Integrative modeling of language genetics
• Niche construction
• Co-evolutionary processes

32
Human Social Dynamics Robustness
Niche constructionNi
40 NPP appropriated by humans (and rising!) -C.
Field, Science 294 (2001)

33
Human Social Dynamics Robustness
Niche constructionNi
40 NPP appropriated by humans (and rising!) -C.
Field, Science 294 (2001)

95 of lowland Borneo tropical forests
doomed -L.Curran, Science, forthcoming
34
Human Social Dynamics Robustness
Niche constructionNi
40 NPP appropriated by humans (and rising!) -C.
Field, Science 294 (2001)

95 of lowland Borneo tropical forests
doomed -L.Curran, Science, forthcoming Most
coral reefs are in critical condition
35
Human Social Dynamics Robustness
Niche constructionNi
40 NPP appropriated by humans (and rising!) -C.
Field, Science 294 (2001)

95 of lowland Borneo tropical forests
doomed -L.Curran, Science, forthcoming Most
coral reefs are in critical condition Dead
zones spreading in coastal marine ecologies
36
Human Social Dynamics Robustness
Niche constructionNi
A new niche for SFI?
40 NPP appropriated by humans (and rising!) -C.
Field, Science 294 (2001)

95 of lowland Borneo tropical forests
doomed -L.Curran, Science, forthcoming Most
coral reefs are in critical condition Dead
zones spreading in coastal marine ecologies
37
Human Social Dynamics Robustness
Niche constructionNi
A niche for SFI?
40 NPP appropriated by humans (and rising!) -C.
Field, Science 294 (2001)
Earth systems modelersE
Oceans Coastal Atmospheric Conservation
biologists, ecologists Resource development
economics

95 of lowland Borneo tropical forests
doomed -L.Curran, Science, forthcoming Most
coral reefs are in critical condition Dead
zones spreading in coastal marine
ecologies Etc.- not much good news!
38
Human Social Dynamics Overviews syntheses
Lots of promising directions

• Equivalence classes of adaptive agent models
• Statistical mechanics of agents institutions
• Language as a bio-semiotic system
• Scaling laws in social systems
• Robustness of social natural systems
• Structure evolution of social preferences
• Institutional innovation persistence
• Fundamentals of market systems
• Behavioral decision rules (emotions, learning)
• Computational learning models
• Unification of the behavioral sciences
• Political Violence

39
Human Social Dynamics Overviews syntheses
Lots of promising directions

• Equivalence classes of adaptive agent models
• Statistical mechanics of agents institutions
• Language as a bio-semiotic system
• Scaling laws in social systems
• Robustness of social natural systems
• Structure evolution of social preferences
• Institutional innovation persistence
• Fundamentals of market systems
• Behavioral decision rules (emotions, learning)
• Computational learning models
• Enhanced empirical/theoretical dialogue
• Political violence

But how should we manage our research portfolio?
Again, whats special about SFI?

40
Human Social Dynamicsat the Santa Fe Institute

• What makes SFI unique?

• New Frontiers/share an office

41
Human Social Dynamicsat the Santa Fe Institute

• What makes SFI unique?

• New Frontiers/share an office
• If they can do that, why cant we?!

42
Human Social Dynamicsat the Santa Fe Institute

• What makes SFI unique?

• New Frontiers/share an office
• If they can do that, why cant we?!
• Question-driven science
• Cross-disciplinary teams

43
Human Social Dynamicsat the Santa Fe Institute

• What makes SFI unique?

• New Frontiers/share an office
• If they can do that, why cant we?!
• Question-driven science
• Cross-disciplinary teams
• Sharing of tools, methods, paradigms

44
Human Social Dynamics Overviews syntheses
What makes SFI unique?
An example

NSF Biocomplexity mostly a failure
45
Human Social Dynamics Overviews syntheses
What makes SFI unique?
An example

NSF Biocomplexity mostly a failure Its hard to
create deep collaborations crossing natural
social sciences
46
Human Social Dynamics Overviews syntheses
What makes SFI unique?
An example

NSF Biocomplexity mostly a failure Its hard to
create deep collaborations crossing natural
social sciences
-But SFI does this very well!