http:www.nies.go.jp

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http//www.nies.go.jp
http//www-cger.nies.go.jp/ipcc/aim/
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AIM(Asian-Pacific Integrated Model)

• What is AIM?
• Why do you need to develop an Integrated
  Assessment Model (IAM)?
• What kind of IAMs have been develoed?
• What is AIM/emission model?
• What is AIM/climate model?
• What is AIM/impact model?

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AIM Application(Asian-Pacific Integrated Model)

• Implication of the Kyoto protocol
• Analysis of post-Kyoto scenarios
• Results of AIM/end-use model
• New policy needs to reduce GHG emissions

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Policymaking Process
AIM (Asia)
IMAGE (Netherlands)
GCAM (USA)
MIT (USA)
Integrated Assessment Model
Atmospheric Chemistry
meteorology
geophysics
economics
policy sciences
pedology
paleo- climatology
geochemistry
ecology
hydraulics
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AIM CHARACTERISTICS

• 1. Integrated Model
• 2. Links Country Models to Global Model
• 3. Policy Oriented
• 4. Includes Technological Improvement Modules
• 5. Asian-Pacific Region
• 6. Regional Overviews
• 7. Regional Joint Project

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Why do you need to develop an Integrated
Assessment Model (IAM)?
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Why do you need to develop an IAM?

• Huge and extremely complicated mechanism of
  global warming
• hundreds of physical, chemical and biological
  processes
• continuously finding new scientific knowledge
• necessary to have specific tool to understand it

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Why do you need to develop an IAM?

• Enormous human activities related to the
  mechanism
• world human activities would cause it and be
  affected by it
• an action to respond to it would cause new
  problems
• necessary to have specific tool to respond it

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Why do you need to develop an IAM?

• Serious conflicts among countries interests
• countries interests depend on sophisticated
  strategies
• big potential benefits of international
  cooperation
• necessary to have specific tool to win the game

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Why do you need to develop an IAM?

• Monopolized IAMs by developed countries
• developed countries have all of the IAMs
• serious gaps between the IAMs and developing
  countries situation/policy needs
• current situation would result in serious
  disadvantages for developing countries
• inevitable to have specific tool to avoid them

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Policy Needs of Integrated Assessment in the
Asian-Pacific Region

• How to increase incentives for the introduction
  of policies to tackle global warming in the
  region?
• How can the many policy options be systematically
  assessed?
• How to design and introduce international
  cooperation in the region?
• How can the long-term policy options for
  stabilizing the global climate be assessed?

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1. To identify incentives for policy measures
 
Many of the countries in the region need
concrete examples of global warming damage,
secondary short-term benefits and the small
economic impacts of policies in order to increase
the incentives for policy adoption. To meet this
need requires integration of emission and impact
models, global warming and local environmental
models, and emission and economic models.
 

 
 
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1. To identify incentives for policy measures

• To compare costs and benefits of introducing
  global warming abatement policies
• Emission models Impact models 
• To determine secondary effects of global warming
  abatement policies on regional and/or local
  environments. 
• Acid rain model
• Global warming models Local
  pollution models
• Natural resource model
• To show the small impact of global abatement
  policies on national economies.
• Emission models Economic
  models

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2. Systematic assessment of policy options
Systematic and consistent assessment of policy
options is essential if policy makers are to be
able to make sound decisions. Assessments need
to be made of the technical feasibility for GHG
reductions, the combined effects of various
policies, the consistency of policy combinations
and approaches to GHG reductions. To meet these
needs requires integration of technology and
economic models, top-down and bottom-up models,
energy and land-use models and CO2 emission and
other GHG emission models.
 
 

 
 
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2. Systematic assessment of policy options

• To assess technological feasibility for GHG
  reduction considering costs and markets.
• Technology model Economic
  models 
• To assess combined effects of various policies
  such as carbon tax with reinvestments of tax
  revenue.
• Top-down model Bottom-up
  model
• To assess consistency of policy combinations,
  such as increasing biomas use and land
  availability.
• Energy model
  Land-use model
• To assess comprehensive approaches for GHG
  reduction including reforestation and methane
  emission reduction.
• CO2 emission model Other GHG
  emission model

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3. Introduce international collaboration
 
Many countries in the region desire
assistance through international collaboration
that can estimate the effects of Clean
Development Mechanism, design regional integrated
policies for global climate stabilization and to
assess the effectiveness of inter-regional
collaboration. Here, AIM integrates many country
models, country and regional models and the
Asian-Pacific regional model and the Global
model.
 

 
 
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3. Introduce international collaboration

• To estimate the effects of CDM.
• Country model Country
  model
• To design regional integrated policies for global
  climate stabilization.
• Country models
  Asian-Pacific region model
• To assess collaborative policies between the
  Asian-Pacific region and other regions.
• Asian-Pacific region model Global
  model

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4. Long-term policy option assessment.
 
This is needed to ensure that short and
long-term policies are compatible, and to assess
the various feedback loops and interactions among
land-use changes and the social and economic
impacts of climate change on GHG emissions. To
allow these needs to be met, the AIM project is
still working on integration of emission and
impact models, and land-use and carbon cycle
models.
 

 
 
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4. Long-term policy option assessment

• To compare short-term mitigation policies with
  long-term adaptation policies.
• Emission models Impact models 
• To assess the feedback from land cover changes
  caused by climate change on GHG concentrations.
  Land cover model Carbon cycle
  model
• To assess the feedback from economic and social
  impacts caused by climate change on GHG
  emissions.
• Impact models Emission
  model

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What kind of IAMs have been developed?
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What kinds of IAMs have been developed?

• Comprehensive large-scale models
• AIM, IMAGE2, GCAM
• Comprehensive natural system models
• MAGICC, ISM, etc.
• Economic growth optimization models
• DICE, MERGE, CETA, etc.
• Policy makers training models
• TARGETS, PEF, etc.

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Tradeoff Between Natural and Economic System
Complexity in Integrated Assessment Models
Simpler Models of Natural Systems
More Complex Models of Natural Systems
MAGICC ISM INAGE-2 ICAM-2 TARGETS
PAGE CSERGE PEF
Simpler Models of Economic Systems
CETA DICE MERGE MiniCAM New Earth 21
AIM GCAM MIT
More Complex Models of Economic Systems
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What kinds of assessments have been integrated?

• Natural system
• e.g. carbon cycle, radiative forcing, physical
  impacts
• Social systems
• e.g. energy technologies, industrial
  agricultural productions
• Natural systems and social systems
• e.g. GHG emissions climate change,
  natural impacts economic loss
• Costs and benefits
• e.g. optimal emission trajectories,
  optimal timing of policy introduction
• Policy options
• e.g. tax subsidy, global-domestic
  policy linkages

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What is clarified based on IAMs

• Natural systems
• e.g. identifies sink, cooling effect
• Social systems
• e.g. big potential improvement of energy
  efficiency,
• conflict between energy agriculture
• Natural systems and social systems
• e.g. high sensitivity of next decades emissions
  to climate change, huge impact damage in
  developing countries
• Costs and benefits
• e.g. big potential reduction of abatement cost,
  effectiveness of early timing of policy
  introduction
• Policy options
• e.g. effectiveness of policy packages, mutual
  beneficial situation caused by international
  cooperation

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Total database range exceeding the SRES range
SRES range
Non-control
95
Index (19901)
A2
IS92A
Median
1990 range

A1B,
B2
(all SRES scenarios)
Control
B1
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What is AIM/emission model?
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Commercial Biomass Price
Land Use Change Constraint
Land Use Module
Price
World Model
AIM Bottom-up
General Equilibrium Module
Energy End-use Module
End-use Efficiency
Land Use Change Potentials
Original linkage modules
Energy Use
Land Use
GHG Emissions
Outline of AIM/Emission -Linkage
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What is AIM/climate model?
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CO2 fertilization model
Temperature feedback
Atmosphere
Terrestrial
Radiative

• GHG

surface
carbon
reaction
convection
temperature
cycle model
model
and
aerosol
heat
Sea Level model
exchange
ozone
GHG concentration
ice
cooling
Greenland
melt
GHG
model
CO2 ocean
glaciers
uptake
Sea-Level
and
model
Antarctica
rise
Ocean heat uptake model
surface mixing layer
SO2
thermal expansion
Ocean
heat diffusion
temperature
general
emission
circulation
upwelling
model
model
Ocean
Outline of AIM/climate model
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Temperature change based on SRES scenarios
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A2
A1
Sea level rise (cm)
B2
B1
Year
Sea level rise based on SRES scenarios
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What is AIM/impact model?
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Change of potential productivity of winter wheat
between now and 2100
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Fir Alder Japanese chestnut, Beech Pignut Spruce P
ine Oak Elm
???????? ?????????? ????? ??? ???????? ?? ???????
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Vegetation speed caused by climate change
m/year
Maximum speed of vegetation
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Implication of the Kyoto protocol
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Targets of Greenhouse Gas Emissions Reduction

• It is certain that serious impacts will be caused
  by global warming
• By how much and over what time-frame, should
  anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases be
  reduced to avert climate change?

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Estimated Global Warming
0.3
Proposed at Villach/Bellagio Conference
Younger Dryas
Speed of temperature change, K/10 years
Low Risk Area
High Risk Area
After 10000YBP
Before 10000YBP
Temperature change, K
Estimates of temperature change
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Characteristics of Kyoto Protocol
1) Greenhouse gases CO2, CH4, N2O, HFCs, PFCs,
SF6 2) Targets 5.2 below their 1990 emissions
levels by 2008-2012 U.S.,-7 EU, -8
Canada, -6 Japan, -6 Russia and
Ukraine, 0 NZL,0 Australia,8 3) Sinks-
the absorption of CO2 by growing forests-
afforestation, reforestation and deforestation
since 1990 4) Mechanisms Emissions
Trading, Joint Implementation, Clean
Development Mechanism, Bubble,
Banking, Borrowing
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Structure of the AIM top-down emission model
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Regional Aggregation JPN Japan AUS
Australia NZL New Zealand USA United States
of America CAN Canada EUR West Europe
TWN Taiwan KOR Republic of Korea HKG
Hong Kong SGP Singapore FSU Former Soviet
Union CHN China IDI India IDN
Indonesia MYS Malaysia PHL
Philippines THA Thailand LAM Latin America
MEA Middle East and North Africa SSA Sub
Saharan Africa ROW Rest of the World
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Goods Aggregation COL Coal CR
U Crude oil OIL Petroleum and coal products
(refined) GAS Natural gas NUC Nuclear RNW Renew
able energy EGW Electricity EIS Energy
intensive products OTH Agriculture, other
manufactures and services TRN Transport
industries CGD Savings good
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250
Australia
200
Japan
USA
150
Canada
EU
Marginal cost (1992 US/tC)
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CIS
50
0
Figure 6 Emission right prices (no-flexibility
case)
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0.5
0.4
0.3
CIS
0.2
EU
0.1
Canada
Emission permits traded (GtC/year)
0.0
USA
Japan
-0.1
Australia
-0.2
-0.3
-0.4
-0.5
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
Figure 8 Emission permits traded (Annex I
trading case)
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Million Ton C / Year
500
Target
410
390
Import
400
Export
Hot Air
300
Emission Trading
210
190
200
120
80
60
100
0
CIS EE
Japan
USA
EU
Emission trading among Annex I countries
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CO2 emission changes in Annex I countries in 2010
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CO2 emissions changes in non-Annex I countries in
2010
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Results of AIM/end-use model
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World Model
Top-down
-21 Regions Equilibrium Model-
Country
Country
Country
Bottom-up
Model A
Model B
Model
End-use
End-use
End-use
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Energy
Energy Technology
Energy Service
Energy Comsumption
Technology
Service Demand
CO2 Emissions
Energy Database
Technology Database
Socio-economic Scenario
- Technology price
- Population Growth
- Energy type
- Economic Growth
- Energy consumption
- Energy price
- Industrial Structure
- Service supplied
- Energy constraints
- Employees
- Share
- CO2 emission factor
- Lifestyle
- Lifetime
Structure of the AIM/End-Use Model
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Sectors and subsectors
Subsector
Sectors
Iron and Steel, Cement, Petrochemical,
Industrial
Pulp and Paper, Miscellaneous
Cooling and Heating, Hot Water Supply,
Residential
Lighting, Buildings, Locomotion, etc.
Cooling and Heating, Hot Water Supply,
Commercial
Lighting, Buildings, Locomotion, etc.
Passenger Transport, Freight
Transportation
Transport
City Gas Production, Oil Refining, Electric Power
Generation
Energy
Conversion
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Purchased coke
Purchased
Coal
Iron ore
Limestone
Terminal
electricity
Terminal
Coke
Hot
Coke oven
Terminal
coke
oven gas
Coke
Smelting
quenching
Coke
reduction
equipment
furnace
Heat
Power device
Sintering
Terminal
machine
Sinter
Utility
Blast
Terminal
furnace
Hot
Blast furnace
metal
gas
Heat
Independent
power plant
Basic
Basic oxygen
oxygen
Molten
furnace gas
furnace
steel
Power device
Electricity
Caster
Slabs,
blooms,
billets
Reheating
Reheating
Legend
Hot rolled
furnace
furnace
steel products
final service
Annealing
service device
furnace
Terminal
external energy
internal
Hot rolled
Cold rolled
energy/service
steel products
steel products
Electric arc
furnace
flow of external energy
flow of heat
flow of electricity
and related goods
Scrap
An example of sub-model structure(Japanese
iron-steel industry)
flow of other internal energy/service
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Carbon Emission Factor
Input Scenario
Energy Price and Constraints
Service Demand
Technology Improvement
Technology Share
- Historical share - Upper limit of share
Technology Share
Supplied Service
Technology Data
- Energy consumption - Service supply -
Technology price - Lifetime
Energy Consumption
CO Emission
2
Input and output files of the AIM/end-use model
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36.7
18.4
16.8
Emission change in 2010 to 1990 ()
10.3
8.9
-3.1
Change of Japanese CO2 emissions in 2010 to 1990
level (Market case)
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Countermeasures explicitly included in the model
algorism are
1. Economic instruments (All sectors) Carbon
taxes Technology specified subsidies Sector
specified subsidies Extension of pay-back
period 2. Technology efficiency fix (All sectors)
Top runner method 3. Non-technological energy
efficiency change caused by Life-style
modification (Residential, transport
sectors) 4. Promotion of mass-transport,
Information technology (transport
sector) Modal shift, satellite office
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22.3
0.4
Emission change in 2010 to 1990 ()
-2.5
-5.4
-11.0
-13.5
Fig. 2 Change of Japanese CO2 emissions in 2010
to 1990 level (Carbon tax case)
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Remarks on CO2 emissions in Japan

• It is possible to decrease CO2 emissions without
  reducing productive activity or living standards.
  
• It is necessary to introduce new policy measures
  such as carbon tax and subsidies.
• In order to reduce CO2 emissions further, the
  costs will become larger. But, this expenditure
  increase effective demand of energy-saving
  technology.
• In the next century, we expect social-structural
  change from a "contemporary materialistic nation"
  to a "creative/knowledge-intensive nation . This
  change will move Japan nearer to the lower
  emission cases

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New policy needs to reduce GHG emissions
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New Policy Needs to Reduce GHG
Climatic policies gt Integrated
environmental policies gt Integrated
industrial policies gt Sustainable
Development policies National policies gt
Local policies gt Asian regional policies
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Future environmental perspectives in 2025

• SO2 and NOx emissions are projected to rise 1.7
  to 3.4 times present levels in 2025.

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Future environmental perspectives in 2025

• Forest lands are predicted to decline by almost
  half to decline by the period in the period from
  1990 to 2100.

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1 Concept and 3 Future Actions
Eco-Consciousness
Eco-Partnership
Eco-Technology and Eco-Investment
Eco-Policy Linkage
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Eco-Policy Linkage
Strategy that
a) links the domestic environmental policies of
developing countries with regional or
global-scale environmental policies,
b) thereby supporting the domestic environmental
policies of those countries
c) effectively contributing to the achievement of
global environmental policies
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Eco-Policy Linkage
(a) Air Pollution Prevention Linked Strategy
(AIRS)
(b) Natural Resource Recovery Linked Strategy
(NATS)

• (c) Recycling Promotion Linked Strategy (RECS)

(d) Biodiversity Protection Linked Strategy (BIOS)
(e) Water Pollution Prevention Linked Strategy
(WATS)
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Japans experiences in the battle against
pollution
(1) Technological development was essential to
reduce the costs of pollution abatement.
(2) A Competitive market gave an environment
which was crucial in giving companies the
incentive to invest in technology
development.
(3) Environmental investment created new
businesses and industries in Japan, which
increased Japans GDP.
(4) Such environmental investment improved not
only the quality of products, but also
production processes and recycling processes
in factories, which in turn encouraged
Japans long-term development.
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Linkage to reduce GHG
Investment for technology development
Promotion of Environmental Industry New
Energy Recycle Low Emission Industry
Technology Development Energy saving
technology Pollution/Wastes treatment
technology Environment load reduction Cost
reduction Efficiency Improvement
Supply new technologies
Zero Emission Society
Preference of low emission products
Request for environmental consideration
Support
Investment
Social Problem Education ???
Economic Problem Economy Unemployment
???
Support
Change of Consumption pattern
Regional Environmental Problem Wastes
Air pollution ???
Global Environment Problem Global
warming Depletion of ozone layer ???
Support
Government/ Institution
Enlightenment/Education/ Environmental
Consideration