New York Harbor Environment Forecasting

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New York Harbor Environment Forecasting Alan F.
Blumberg Thomas O. Herrington 10/29/03
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Maritime Systems at Stevens
Security and Commerce
Analysis of the Marine Environment
Marine Hydrodynamics
Environment Modeling
Detection and Surveillance
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Maritime Security and Commerce Evaluate
Asymmetric Threats
Dual-Track Approach
Integrated system of environment observing
sensors and computer forecasting models

• Vessel traffic surveillance
• HF radar
• data assimilation
• visualization
• analysis of intent
• threat assessment

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• NYHOS
• integrated ocean observations and forecasts
• vessel surveillance

EXISTING STATIONS STEVENS STATIONS
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Modeling Framework

• Hydrodynamic Model
• ECOM
• Processes
• Water Movement Physics
• Temperature/Salinity
• Conservative Substances
• Particle Tracking

• Products
• Water Levels
• Currents, Mixing
• Temperature/Salinity
• Conservative Substances

• Forcing Functions
• Tides
• Winds
• Rivers

• Forcing Functions
• Winds

• Wind Wave Model
• GLERL
• Processes
• Wave Generation
• Wave Propagation
• Energy dissipation

• Forcing Functions
• Bed Concentrations
• Active Sources

• Transport Module
• Processes
• Advection
• Dispersion

• Products
• Wave Height
• Wave Period
• Wave Direction

• Sediment Model
• SED
• Processes
• Erosion
• Aggregation
• Deposition

• Water Quality Model
• RCA
• Processes
• Transfer
• Transformation

• Forcing Functions
• Sediment Bed Properties
• Solids Loading

• Products
• Sediment Concentrations
• Mass Eroded/Deposited
• Bed Level Changes

• Products
• Water Column Conc.
• Bed Concentrations

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CARP Model Grid
Latitude (deg.)
Longitude (deg.)
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Troy, NY
Data 14 days 2,060 Samples (?) ?t 2 min ?x
400 m Vertical profiles (?) Model ECOM Time-var
iable 1,191 Boxes 10 Layers ?x 600 m ?z 1
m Output 400 MB
Release 1.6 mol SF6
Newburgh Bay
NYC
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Forecast System Products

• Ocean Weather (water levels, waves and currents)
• Water Temperature and Salinity
• Pathogens
• Ichthyoplankton Abundance
• Water Column Concentrations
• (Nutrients, DO, Algae, Toxics, Sediment)
• Sediment Bed Level Changes
• Meteorology (Air Temperature and Winds)

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Skill Assessment/Uncertainty
Quantification
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Activities and Plans

• Moorings/sensors in the water by this fall
• Wireless transmission system in place
• New York Harbor Forecasting System Almost Up
• Observing/Forecasting System Late fall
• Observations Constrain Model Forecasts
• Model Controls Sensors
• Extend analysis to small vessel detection for
  harbor
• surveillance
• Looking to instrument 10 or so ferries

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