STEPs : Brussels model results

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STEPs Brussels model results

• First analysis of scenarios environmental impacts
  with the Brussels model

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Contents

• Model
• Method
• Scenarios
• Results

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1. The Brussels model

• Four stages model
• SATURN software - road traffic model with
  dynamic assignment
• VISUM
• Model calibrated on 2001 data.
• Forecast on the demand for the several modes
  done for 2015
• ?No simulation results are available for any
  year beyond 2015
• Peak period for one working day from 6 AM to 10
  PM
• Modal choice includes time, user price, car
  ownership, headways for public transports,

Employments and population
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• Brussels Capital Region and suburb region
  (Regional Express Netwok region)
• - Different utility functions for Brussels and
  suburbs inhabitants
• - Specificities of BCR and suburbs included (in
  terms of specific socio-economic variables, modal
  split, specific car ownership and specific
  population characteristics (in terms of cost
  sensibility)

REN area Regional Express Network area (2900
sq.km, 2 800 000 inhab.)

• BCR
• Brussel Capital Region
• (155 sq.km, 1 100 000 inhab.)

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1. The Brussels model

• 3 populations in terms of education
  High-Educated people, Middle-Educated people and
  Less-Educated people
• (price sensibility for Home-work trips differs
  for the different categories).
• Home-Work trips Home-School Home-Others but
  focuses only on Home-Work trips in this BCS

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2. Method

• Determination of modal part though variations of
  car-ownership, fuel resource cost and fuel taxes
  figures in utility functions
• Variation of fuel cost and of taxes have been
  both included in the utility functions. However,
  the two variations have been summed after
  deriving absolute values, so it could also be
  possible to work with one variable (cost variable
  fuel cost variable tax cost variable).
• 2. Spatial-cost function used to derive the
  impact of fuel and tax cost on the traveled
  distances (required to obtained adjusted PCUkm
  data)
• 3. Computation of environmental figures (fuel
  consumption and pollutant emissions)
• - fleet composition variations
• - emissions function

Issued from Propolis
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3. Scenarios
Scenarios have been defined through the given
variables data, i.e. the following one 1)
car ownership 2) fuel resource cost 3)
fuel taxes 4) car fleet 5) fuel
consumption percentage change 6) emissions
factors CO, CO2, NOx and VOC, as well as 7)
cold emissions factors. The 6 scenarios (A0,
A1, A2, B0, B1 B2) have been studied for 2001
and 2015. The Belgium-Luxemburg evolution
figures have been considered.
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4. Results
4.1. Mode shares
Inputs
1) car ownership 2) fuel resource cost 3)
fuel taxes
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4. Results
4.2. Flows
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4. Results
4.2. Flows
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4. Results
4.2. Flows
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4. Results
4.3. Fleet composition and consumptions
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4. Results
4.3. Fleet composition and consumptions
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4. Results
4.4. Emissions Environmental impact
computed with the emissions functions issued
from MEET with the distance band definition
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4. Results
4.4. Emissions Environmental impact
GHG emissions (kg CO2 /km² day) Reference
scenario A0-2001
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4. Results
4.5. Emissions scenarios environmental impact
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• Thank you for your attention!