Upgraded Russian

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THORPEX-Pacific Asian Regional Campaign/Tropical
Cyclone Structure-08 Experiments and
Collaborative Efforts
Upgraded Russian Radiosonde Network for IPY
U.S. (NOAA) Winter NOAA G-4 and Air Force C-130s
U.S.(NSF/ONR), EU, Japan, Korea, DLR Falcon,
NRL P-3
U.S. ONR/NSF TCS-08 NRL P-3, WC-130
WMO WCRP/WWRP Asian/Indian Monsoon
Typhoon Landfall
Japan Palau
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THORPEX Pacific Asian Regional Campaign (T-PARC)/
Tropical Cyclone Structure-2008

• August-September 2008
• Initial motivation from Asian and North American
  Regional Committees with significant EU
  participation and financial contribution
• Asian societal impacts from heavy rainfall,
  typhoon and extratropical transition (ET) with
  research interests in
• tropical cyclone formation
• intensification
• Motion/track
• decay and/or ET
• North American societal impacts from downstream
  effects of Asian and Western Pacific high-impact
  weather with research interests in
• tropical and midlatitude predictability
• tropical cyclones,
• ET
• intense extratropical cyclogenesis
• International Collaborators U.S. (NSF, ONR),
  Germany, Japan, China, South Korea, Canada,
  France, U.K., Taiwan

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Forecast Uncertainty At Recurvature and During ET
Results in Major Societal Impacts for East Asia
TY Tokage, October 2004 Tracks from the JMA
ensemble prediction system
Tracks supplied by Dr. T. Nakazawa
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Adaptive observations and plane sequencing
NRL Singular vector sensitivity for TY Man-Yi
(2007)
SV Graphic supplied by Dr.Carolyn Reynolds, NRL
Monterey
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THORPEX Working Group on Predictability and
Dynamical Processes Interest Group 4 The Impact
of Extratropical Transition on the Downstream
Midlatitude Predictability Sarah Jones1 and
Patrick Harr21Universitat Karlsruhe 2Naval
Postgraduate School
GFS ensemble members 00 0000 UTC 16 Sep
2003 500 hPa height (m) at a 240 m interval
Hurricane Isabel
GFS 500 hPa ensemble 108 h VT
1200 UTC 20 Sep 03
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MOTIVATION IMPROVED WEATHER FORECASTS
Impacts on Numerical Model Performance
Hurricane Maria
TY Saola
TY Nabi
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Variability among ensemble members as a measure
of the predictability downstream from an ET event
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• Summary Major Science Issues
• Mechanisms
• - Sensitivities due to TC/ET characteristics
• - influence of TC structure
• - outflow
• - diabatic process and their impacts on the
  midlatitude flow
• - Sensitivities due to midlatitude flow
  characteristics

Midlatitude impact region
Tropical cyclone core region
Tropical cyclone-midlatitude interface
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• Summary Major Science Issues
• Mechanisms
• - Sensitivities due to TC/ET characteristics
• - influence of TC structure
• - outflow
• - warm frontogenesis and its impact on the
  midlatitude flow
• - Sensitivities due to midlatitude flow
  characteristics
• Predictability (understanding and assessment)
• - Ensemble spread
• - Forecast error growth
• - Timing/extent/persistence of the downstream
  response
• - Sensitivities to initial conditions and their
  propagation throughout the forecast cycle
• Predictability (increase)
• - Predict the reduction in forecast error
  variance due to supplemental/targeted
  observations
• - test new strategies and observational systems
• - Data assimilation strategies, impacts.

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200 hPa meridional wind anomalies
Period of TY Nabi and pronounced downstream
response
Period of TY Saola and lack of a pronounced
downstream response
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Ex-TY Nabi
Ex-TY Saola
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NRL P-3 all FL 150 OKO 1 (33oN,141oE) 212 n
mi 1 2 (30oN, 142.5oE) 225 n mi 2 3
(31.5oN, 146oE) 232 n mi 3 4 (35oN, 142.5oE)
315 n mi 4 OKO 185 n mi
1169 n mi Drops at waypoints and 60 n mi
intervals
Schematic Combined Aircraft Mission in ET Case
WC-130 proposed track
DLR FALCON 20-E5 D-CMET OKO 1 (36.5oN, 131.0oE)
420 n mi FL 350 1 2 (38.5oN, 136oE) 307 n
mi 2 3 (40oN,133oE) 191 n mi 3 4
(42oN,136oE) 209 n mi 4 MSJ 293 n mi
1470 n mi Dropwindsondes at waypoints and
60 n mi spacing
DLR FALCON 20-E5 D-CMET MSJ 1 (42oN, 150oE)
457 n mi FL 350 1 2 (40oN, 150oE) 138
n mi 2 3 (38oN,145oE) 191 n mi
3 OKO 209 n mi
995 n mi Dropwindsondes at
waypoints and 60 n mi spacing
FALCON Mission in two stages with a re-fueling
stop at MSJ
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DRIFTSONDE Released from Hawaii Altitude of
20-70 hPa Approximately 7 days to drift over
the Phillipine Sea Dropsonde release
controlled from Boulder, CO
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Summary T-PARC and collaborating projects
constitute a GLOBAL OPERATION
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T-PARC/TCS-08 Components
TY Nabi, 29 Aug 8 Sep, 2005
Extratropical Transition (ET recurvature),
Downstream Impacts
Midlatitude operating region NRL P-3, FALCON
Japan, Atsugi, NAF
ET characteristics, forcing of downstream
impacts, tropical/midlatitude interactions,
extratropical cyclogenesis
Okinawa, Kadena AFB
Guam, Andersen AFB