JustinTime Lecture

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www.pitt.edu/super/
Just-in-Time Lecture Pakistan Earthquake 8
October 2005
Ardalan A, Kazmi Kh, LaPorte RE, Holakouie Naieni
K, Dodani S, Pourmalek F, Shubnikov E, Linkov F,
Russel M, Noji EK
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Mission Statement The Global Health Network
Disaster, Network for Earthquake is designed to
translate the best possible scholarly information
from leading researchers to educators worldwide.
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What is the Disaster
Supercourse?
http//www.pitt.edu/super1
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What is a JIT lecture?
http//www.pitt.edu/super1
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• Lecture objectives
• To provide the best possible scientific
• information about the Pakistan
• earthquake of 8 Oct 2005
• To teach how the science can help
• prepare for primary secondary
• prevention of consequences of
• Pakistan earthquake, 8 Oct 2005

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What is the earthquake? The shaking of earth
caused by waves moving on and below the earth's
surface and causing surface faulting, tremors
vibration, liquefaction, landslides, aftershocks
and/or tsunamis
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How the earthquake happens?

• It caused by a sudden slip on a FAULT.
• Stresses in the earth's
• outer layer push sides of
• fault together.
• Stress builds up rocks
• slips suddenly, releasing
• energy in waves that travel
• through the earth's CRUST
• cause the shaking that we
• Feel during an earthquake.

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Earthquake Strength Measures I) Magnitude
II) Intensity

• I) Magnitude
• Definition A measure of actual physical energy
  release at its source as estimated from
  instrumental observations.
• Scale Richter Scale
• By Charles Richter, 1936
• Open-ended scale
• The oldest most widely used

Noji 1997
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Earthquake Strength Measures I)
Magnitude II) Intensity

• II) Intensity
• Definition a measure of the felt or perceived
  effects of an earthquake rather than the strength
  of the earthquake itself.
• Scale Modified Mercalli (MM) scale
• 12-point scale, ranges from barely perceptible
  earthquakes at MM I to near total destruction
  at MM XII

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Magnitude versus Intensity

• Magnitude refers to the force of the earthquake
  as
• a whole, while intensity refers to the
  effects of an
• earthquake at a particular site.
• An earthquake can have just one magnitude, while
• intensity is usually strongest close to the
  epicenter
• is weaker the farther a site is from the
  epicenter.
• The intensity of an earthquake is more germane
  to
• its public health consequences than its
  magnitude.

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Northward movement of the Indian subcontinent
(40 mm/yr 1.6 inches/yr) Colliding with the
Eurasian continent
Earthquakes active faults in Northern
Pakistan adjacent parts of India Afghanistan
USGS
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• Seismicity of Pakistan
• Concentrated in N and W of the country, along
• the boundary of the Indian plate the Iranian
• Afghan micro-plates
• Thrust zones
• Kirthar
• Sulaiman
• Salt ranges
• 4 faults in around Karachi

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Peak Ground Acceleration (m/s2)
Based on Expected Ground Acceleration, Pakistan
is divided into 4 earthquake hazard zones.
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Seismicity of Jammu Kashmir Earthquake, 8 Oct
2005 One of the strongest earthquakes in the
area since a mammoth M7.6 in Sep 1555 with max
density XII in Kashmir (Jammu Kashmir) and
India
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History of earthquakes in Pakistan, 1980-2004
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• Largest earthquake in Pakistan !
• Date 30 May 1935
• Location Quetta / Balouchistan
• Magnitude 8.1 on the Richter scale
• Time 190046.9 UTC
• Epicentre 27.39N, 88.75E
• Depth 17 Kms
• Death 30,000

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• Pakistans Health Statistics
• Total population 153,578,000
• GDP per capita (Intl , 2002) 1,920
• Life expectancy at birth m/f (years)
• 62,0/62,0
• Healthy life expectancy at birth m/f
• (years, 2002) 54,2/52,3

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• Pakistans Health Statistics
• Child mortality m/f (per 1000) 98/108
• Adult mortality m/f (per 1000) 225/199
• Total health expenditure per capita
• (Intl , 2002) 62
• Total health expenditure as of GDP
• (2002) 3,2

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• Pakistan Earthquake, 8 Oct 2005
• Geolocation 34.402N, 73.560E
• Region Pakistani controlled Jammu
• Kashmir at N of Pakistan Punjab
  
• Himachal Pradesh at N of India.
• Countries affected Pakistan, India,
• Afghanistan
• Affected area Forest-clad mountains

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• Pakistan Earthquake, 8 Oct 2005
• Depth 10 km (6.2 miles)
• Epicentre Distances from Islamabad 90 Km NNE

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• Pakistan Earthquake, 8 Oct 2005
• Magnitude 7.6 on the Richter scale (USGS)
• 7.8 on the Richter scale
  (JMA)
• Classification Major
• Aftershock 200 from 5.4 6.2
• Date Saturday 8 Oct 2005
• Time 850 AM at the local time

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Pakistan Earthquake Impacts

• Death toll 50,000
• Injured 70,000
• Affected population
• Severely 3.027.900
• Marginally 5.260.183
• Displaced/homeless
• 3.3 million

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• Balakot area
• The worst hit area
• 20,000 causalities
• 90 buildings
• destruction
• 100 homeless
• Muzaffarabad
• 80 destroyed
• City of Bagh
• Totally destroyed

Main affected areas
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• Damage to health infrastructure
• Destruction of
• 26 hospitals
• 3 Tuberculosis hospitals
• gt 600 PHC centres

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When disaster strikes, years of development can
be wiped out in seconds
The United Nations flash appeal for Pakistan to
cover the relief needs for a 6 months emergency
phase US 312 million
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• Relief operation obstacles
• Huge numbers of injured
• Helicopters as the only means to get to cut-off
• villages
• Logistical challenges
• Rapidly deteriorating weather conditions
• Continuous rains at nights
• Blocking roads by landslides
• Heavy clouds

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• Critical needs of the affected population
• Winterised shelter up to 600,000 (based on
• 3 million needing shelter, 5 persons per
• family)
• Medical services
• Water sanitation
• Nutrition
• Reaching populations in villages

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• Health needs concerns
• Cold temperature (lt0) hypothermia
• Lack of sanitation facilities
• Lack of adequate safe drinking water
• Need to water purification plants Water tanks
• Need to latrines
• Problem of sanitary disposal of excreta and
• Basic hygiene
• Inadequate food
• Unaccompanied, separated, orphaned children
• Risk of diarrhoeal illnesses, pulmonary diseases
• non-treatment of injured and infected open
• fractures gangrenes

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Dead bodies do not lead to epidemics, but the
bad odour is always a problem, as it is true
in Pakistan and was in Bam.
Solution Spraying campaigns with chlorine
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• A major problem in efficient service delivery to
  really affected people
• Increasing number of people moving into
• Balakot from outlying villages seeking
• assistance!

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• Bam earthquake lessons learned
• We should focus on
• Incident Command System (ICS)
• Inter and Intra sectoral Coordination
• Emergency Health Information System
• (EHIS)

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Public Health Consequences of Earthquakes Pease
see the following lectures Part I.
http//www.pitt.edu/super1/lecture/lec13021/index
.htm Part II. http//www.pitt.edu/super1/lecture
/lec13051/index.htm
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Time of Pakistan earthquake,8 Oct 2005

• Around 9 AM on Saturday most students were at
  schools when the earthquake struck !!

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Epidemiology of fear

• I feel we need to reach out first, are schools
  all over Pakistan but particularly in cities like
  Lahore and Islamabad who experienced earthquake
  but fortunately escaped with out major damage.
  These young minds are also affected by the
  stories of hundreds of young students who have
  lost their lives in other areas. 

Dr. Khawar Kazmi
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• People need information as much as
• water, food, medicine or shelter.
• Information can save lives, livelihoods
• resources.
• Lack of information can make people
• victims of disaster.

World Disaster Report 2005 IFRC/RCS
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Just-in-Time Education Lets teach the school
children right now !
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Average Disaster Per Year in Pakistan
UNDP
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Proportion of People Killed per Type of Disaster
(1980-2000)

UNDP
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Comparison of Proportion of People Killed
following Earthquakes between Pakistan other
countries (1980-2000)

UNDP
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Comparison of 10-year death in Pakistan between
Cardiovascular Diseases (CVD) Earthquakes
30 times more death due to CVDs than earthquakes
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• Earthquake Nature
• Almost unpredictable disaster
• No early warning
• No scientific prediction technology

But we can protect ourselves minimize the
damage to our homes, schools work places.
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What we should do/do not before, during after
the earthquake? Please read carefully
at http//earthquake.usgs.gov/faq/prepare.html
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References
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We wish to express our warm thanks to GDHNet
faculties and all groups that contributed their
valuable materials.