Prsentation PowerPoint

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The Development of the Launcher Market A
Perspective for Europe Marc Giget,
PhD. President Scientific Director Euroconsult
Neustrukturierung des Trägergeschäftes in Europa
Wie kann Europa seine Wettbewerbsfähigkeit auf
dem internationalen Trägermarkt festigen?
FORSCHUNGSINSTITUT DER DEUTSCHEN GESELLSCHAFT
FÜR AUSWÄRTIGE POLITIK Berlin-Tiergarten 12,
September 2002
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For comprehensive analysis on launch services
market, please see our new research report
  Launch Services Market Survey Worldwide
Prospects for 2011 , which was published in
September 2002. This survey provides an in-depth
review of all key parameters for the launch
market with retrospective (past 20 years) and
prospective (coming ten years) analysis.
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Number of satellites launched per year
Distribution by client 1982-2001, forecast to 2011
Number of satellites per year at launch date
Completed
Forecast
Additional Satellites for the Maximum Scenario
Commercial Satellites
Commercial MIN
Including USSR/CIS
Government Satellites
Government MIN
Minimum Scenario
Abstract from  Launch Services Market Survey
Worldwide Prospects for 2011  Euroconsult,
September 2002
4
Mass of satellites launched per year
Distribution by client 1982-2001, forecast to 2011
Mass launched per year in metric tons at
satellites launch date
Completed
Forecast
450
Additional Satellites for the Maximum Scenario
Minimum Scenario
Abstract from  Launch Services Market Survey
Worldwide Prospects for 2011  Euroconsult,
September 2002
5
Launch market value Distribution by
client 1982-2001, forecast to 2011
Annual market value at launch date (current in
millions)
Completed
Forecast
5,000
4,500
4,000
3,500
Additional Satellites for the Maximum Scenario
3,000
2,500
Commercial Satellites
Commercial MIN
2,000
1,500
Minimum Scenario
1,000
Government Satellites
Government MIN
Including USSR/CIS
500
0
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
Abstract from  Launch Services Market Survey
Worldwide Prospects for 2011  Euroconsult,
September 2002
6
Breakdown of the 2002-2011 launch market by orbit
and by client Minimum estimate US 27 billion
Maximum estimate US 35 billion
GEO 66
Deep Space 5
LEO 20
GEO
MEO 9
LEO
MEO
28
9
63
41
59
Total GEO MIN 17.7 billion Total GEO MAX
23.8 billion
Total MEO MIN 2.4 billion Total MEO MAX 3.1
billion
Total LEO MIN 5.4 billion Total LEO MAX
6.5 billion
Abstract from  Launch Services Market Survey
Worldwide Prospects for 2011  Euroconsult,
September 2002
7
The launch service market is structurally
dominated by the geostationary orbit
(Distribution on the maximum estimates)
Annual market value at launch date (current in
millions)
Completed
Forecast
5,000
4,500
Total Market
4,000
3,500
3,000
Non-GEO
2,500
2,000
Government GEO
1,500
1,000
Commercial GEO
500
0
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
Abstract from  Launch Services Market Survey
Worldwide Prospects for 2011  Euroconsult,
September 2002
8
Distribution of the launch market, 2002-2011
Breakdown by orbit, by type of satellite
operator and by market accessibility
Total maximum estimate US 35 billion
By market accessibility
By type of satellite operator
Military 21
Commercial 51
Civil 28
Abstract from  Launch Services Market Survey
Worldwide Prospects for 2011  Euroconsult,
September 2002
9
Market drivers for commercial launch services
Negative
Positive
Satellite lifetimes increased significantly in
recent years from an average of 10 years in 1994
to 15 years in 2000. As a result, replacement is
delayed over time.
The 181 satellites that were launched during the
peak period of 1994-2000 will need to be replaced
at the end of their lifetime in the second half
of the decade and early 2010s.
Replacement of existing satellites
Productivity of satellite networks has increased
tremendously during past decade because of
continuous gains in satellite lifetime, mass,
power, and capacity -the average number of
transponders per satellite grew from an average
of 36 in the late 1990s to 48 now -digital
video compression introduced in the second half
of the 1990s has increased the capacity of a new
satellite by a factor of more than 10 -the power
and footprint of broadcasting satellites have
improved. The combination of these gains means
fewer satellites being required to serve larger
markets.
The growing productivity of satellite networks
will have a positive impact on demand in the
medium/long-term. For instance, due to digital
video compression, the number of TV channels
broadcast on a single 36-MHz transponder has been
multiplied by 3.7 on average between 1995 and
2000. The resulting decrease in broadcasting
costs has caused a multiplication by 6.4 in the
number of TV channels broadcast by satellite over
the same period.
Productivity growth of satellite networks
The end customers for satellite capacity are in
various industries (broadcasting,
telecommunications, Internet service provision,
content distribution, broadband access
provision), all severely impacted by the present
financial crisis and subject to consolidation and
delays in investment.
All satellite service markets are well oriented
for the medium/long-term. The unique advantages
of satellites will be essential to the
development of broadband services.

• Dynamics of final markets for demand
• Broadcasting
• Telecom. data
• Internet broadband

GEO satellites anticipated for 2002-2010
146 to 193 for FSS/BSS
5 to 11 for MSS
3 to 6 for DAB, and 3 to 9 for broadband
Satellite operators are currently revisiting
their capital expenditures (capex) in order to
avoid over-costs and non-indispensable
investments . They are managing their satellite
fleets in order to reduce over-capacity backup
and reserve capacity is now averaging 10 for
leading operators (vs 20 for past decade). They
are also optimizing satellite deployment to cover
broader markets with fewer but more efficient
satellites.
The emergence of powerful global operators
strengthens satellite technology as an efficient
and universal solution for key services such as
TV video broadcasting. It also provides a sound
basis for the development of new applications.
Powerful private operators have better growth
prospects than international government
organizations (IGO) that were managing common
infrastructure for their customers.
MA and globalization of the satellite operators
privatization of the IGOs
Synthesis The commercial satellite market is
currently in a low phase of its cycle. Recovery
will occur in the second part of the decade with
possibly a new record of launch activity at the
end of the decade resulting from the conjunction
of 1) the replacement of existing satellites and
2) the take-off of new applications targeting
mass-markets.
Abstract from  Launch Services Market Survey
Worldwide Prospects for 2011  Euroconsult,
September 2002
10
Total launch expenditures for the top 10 largest
satellite operators 1982-2001
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Cumulated current in billions spent by the
operators to procure GEO launch services
Intelsat
4.5
4
.5
3
PanAmSat
2.5
2
Eutelsat
1.5
SES Americom
Loral Skynet
SES Astra
1
Telesat
Inmarsat
0.5
EchoStar
DirecTV
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
Including the satellites operated by New Skies
Satellites
Abstract from  Launch Services Market Survey
Worldwide Prospects for 2011  Euroconsult,
September 2002
11
Trend in specific launch prices of commercial GEO
satellites Toward a new price function
x 1,000 per kg
45.0
Observed prices range on the core market (gt90 of
the sample) for typical platform classes for the
1990s
40.0
35.0
average price function for the 1990s
30.0
25.0
Observed prices range on the core market for the
most recent deals (2000-2002) (except promotional
flights of new launchers)
New heavy satellites
20.0
15.0
average price function hypothesis N2 for the
2000s
10.0
5.0
Satellite launch mass in kg
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
Abstract from  Launch Services Market Survey
Worldwide Prospects for 2011  Euroconsult,
September 2002
12
Trend in launch mass of commercial GEO
satellites, 1980-2010
Satellites on order
Satellites launched
8,000
Launch mass at launch date in Kg
7,000
IPStar
Inmarsat 4
6,000
Anik F2
Thuraya
5,000
Intelsat 6
Intelsat 7
Trends for average
4,000
Telstar 301
3,000
Satcom 6
2,000
1,000
Intersputnik / Dialog
0
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
Abstract from  Launch Services Market Survey
Worldwide Prospects for 2011  Euroconsult,
September 2002
13
Consequences of last 20 years on present market
situation
Metric tons launched per year
market stabilization
450
Development of launchers for the specific needs
of the commercial market the Ariane family
400
New heavy launchers enter the market Ariane 5,
Atlas 5, Delta 4
CIS launchers adapted to commercial market
350
300
overcapacities
250
Commercial satellites
200
all launchers operated for dual use
150
100
Government satellites
50
of which CIS
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
Abstract from  Launch Services Market Survey
Worldwide Prospects for 2011  Euroconsult,
September 2002
14
Total mass launched per vehicle for commercial
GEO satellites 1978-2001
400
Ariane 1 to 4
Cumulated mass in metric tons (since vehicles
introduction on the market)
350
300
250
200
Atlas
150
Proton
100
Delta
Long March
50
Space Shuttle
Ariane 5
Sea Launch
Titan 3
0
H-1
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
Abstract from  Launch Services Market Survey
Worldwide Prospects for 2011  Euroconsult,
September 2002
15
Market shares for commercial launch services
1992-2001 19.4 billion
2002-2011 market forecast (GEO price hypothesis
N 2) Minimum scenario 12.1 billion Maximum
scenario 17.6 billion
Others 0.4
Khrunichev 9.5
Contracted Market
CGWIC 6
Arianespace 2.1 billion
Boeing 12.4
Arianespace 47.3
ILS 1.5 billion
Boeing 1.1 billion
CGWIC 0.15 billion
ILS 24.4
Khrunichev 0.18 billion
others 0.12 billion
Open Market Max 12.5 billion
Current backlogs of orders are not
representative of ultimate market shares.
Abstract from  Launch Services Market Survey
Worldwide Prospects for 2011  Euroconsult,
September 2002
16
Commercial launch market growth and market
shares The past decade and the current
decade Estimated value of launch services at
satellite launch date
GEO price hypothesis no 2
(6)
(1)
(2)
(3)
(6)
(4)
(1)
(2)
(3)
(5)

• Includes Atlas Centaur prior to 1995, Proton and
  Athena
• Includes Delta prior to 1997 and Sea Launchs
  Zenit-3SL, plus ground-based commercial launches
  of Zenit 2
• Includes non-ILS launches of Proton
• Excludes commercial piggy-back launches on Ariane
  4 includes Starsem
• Includes Pegasus, Start, Cosmos, Rockot, Dnepr
• Firm orders excluding options includes
  satellites launched over the first 6.5 months of
  2002

Abstract from  Launch Services Market Survey
Worldwide Prospects for 2011  Euroconsult,
September 2002
17
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