Modelling digital content markets

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• Modelling digital content markets

UniS 16th Bled Electronic Commerce Conference
eTransformation June, 9-11, 2003
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Principles

• Objectives
• Understanding the market
• Identification of the components and participants
  of the market Who are the content providers,
  what do consumers want..
• Simulating
• Creating scenarios and simulations enables
  decision makers to better understand the market
  and learn about its dynamics
• Principle
• Abstraction
• The complexity of a real market must be
  translated into an object model that can be
  manipulated by using a computer
• Simplification
• Actions, decisions and relations between market
  participants must be simplified for a
  representation in a formal model

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Method

• Iterative approach
• Design Prototyping User feedback
• Market analysis, expert interviews, surveys
• Because of the degree of uncertainty and
  imprecise knowledge about online markets, a
  series of prototypes is being developed. In each
  iteration insights of the former steps are
  integrated and more complex models constructed

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Development stage

• Prototype A (End of first iteration)
• Aims
• Decide what software components to use
• Implement a first version of the core process of
  the program
• Create something concrete to start from and to
  talk about
• Model
• A simple, general model of a market consisting of
  providers, consumers and products
• The user defines a model by specifying products,
  providers and consumers for a certain market
• Each provider has a set of offers he wants to
  sell in a market, and each consumer has a set of
  preferences
• Simulation
• Only a single step is simulated
• In this step consumers evaluate available offers
  and buy from a provider whose offer matches best
  to their preference

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Example Online news in Portugal

• Participants and products traded
• Products
• Breaking news
• Business news
• Weather news
• Providers
• Publico.pt
• Diario de Noticias
• Lusa
• Customers
• Internet Service Providers
• Mobile phone companies

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Example Online news in Portugal

• Definition of the dimensions
• Providers are defined by attributes related to
  their reputation and credibility.
• Example attributes
• Credibility
• Offline brand
• Editorial staff
• Products are defined by attributes related to
  quality and price.
• Example attributes
• Price
• Subscription period
• Quality of sources
• Costumers are by now defined only by their
  preference.

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Example Online news in Portugal

• Definition of supply and demand
• An offer is a product that has certain values for
  its attributes
• Example Breaking news for 5000 /month
• A preference consists of provider and product
  attributes that a customer wishes to have certain
  values or value ranges
• Example Breaking news for 4000-5000 a month
  from the market leader

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Future work

• Objectives for the next iteration
• Simulating several steps (months, years..)
• Introduction of behaviours and strategies
  Providers can apply different strategies and
  change them depending on success. Different
  groups of consumers can be defined with certain
  purchase behaviours.
• Methods for analysis
• How to achieve this
• Expert interviews (defining strategies and
  behaviours)
• User feedback and demonstrations (refining the
  model and adapting the software to user
  requirements)

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• Thank you!

www.simdigital.com
Stephan Schuster Dpt. of Sociology, University of
Surrey, Guildford GU2 7XH, UK s.schuster_at_surrey.ac
.uk 44-1483-683965