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IF COLEMANS BOAT MAKES WATER, WHAT WILL KEEP
SOCIOLOGY AFLOAT? PRESENTATION AT THE
DEPARTMENT OF SOCIOLOGY OTTO-FRIEDRICH-UNIVERSITÄ
T BAMBERG NOVEMBER 13, 2007 WOUT
ULTEE DEPARTMENT OF SOCIOLOGY RADBOUD UNIVERSITY
NIJMEGEN posted at http//www.socsci.ru.nl/maw/so
ciologie/ultee/
2
AT FIRST SIGHT THROUGHOUT SOCIOLOGYS
HISTORY THE GERMAN INPUT TO INTERNATIONAL
SOCIOLOGY HAS HINDERED PROGRESS IN THAT
DISCIPLINE MARXIST DOGMATISM UNDIGESTABLE MAX
WEBER THE POSITIVISMUSSTREIT FROM 1961 TO 1969
LUHMANNS PHENOMENOLOGICAL FUNCTIONALISM WEBER
EXEGESIS BECKS RISK SOCIETY
3
UPON CLOSER INSPECTION IN THE PAST DECADES
SOMETHING EMERGED THAT MIGHT BE
CALLED EUROPEAN RIGOROUS SOCIOLOGY AND THAT
HAPPENED BECAUSE OF BENEFICIAL GERMAN INFLUENCES
4
THIS HAPPENED FIRST BECAUSE OF GERMAN MONEY FROM
THE VOLKSWAGENSTIFTUNG ERKISON GOLDTHORPES
1992 THE CONSTANT FLUX SET THE EXAMPLE FOR
BREENS 2004 SOCIAL MOBILITY IN EUROPE
5
THIS HAPPENED SECOND BECAUSE OF GERMAN MONEY FOR
A SONDERFORSCHUNGSBEREICH IT PITTED THE PANEL
OF THE ECONOMIST HAUSER AGAINST THE RETROSPECTIVE
DATA OF THE SOCIOLOGIST MAYER AND THAT BATTLE,
AT LEAST INITIALLY IN 1989, WAS WON BY THAT
GERMAN SOCIOLOGIST MAYER SHOWED THE WAY TOWARDS
THE COLLECTION OF RETROSPECTIVE LIFE-COURSE DATA
FOR OTHER EUROPEAN COUNTRIES
6
THIS HAPPENED THIRD BECAUSE OF A JOURNAL
CALLED THE EUROPEAN SOCIOLOGICAL REVIEW FOUNDED
IN 1985 AND EDITED FOR YEARS NOW BY THE GERMAN
SOCIOLOGIST BLOSSFELD WITH THE EUROPEAN
SOCIOLOGICAL REVIEW OVERTAKING THE AMERICAN
SOCIOLOGICAL REVIEW
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TODAY I WOULD LIKE TO ADDRESS THE TOPIC OF
HOW EUROPEAN RIGOROUS SOCIOLOGY MIGHT BECOME
MORE CUMULATIVE
9
WHY IS CUMULATION DESIRABLE? FIRST EVERY ARTICLE
IN THE EUROPEAN SOCIOLOGICAL REVIEW TAKEN ON ITS
OWN MAY BE GOOD BUT SOCIOLOGY AS A WHOLE MAY
STILL DISPLAY A LOT OF STAGNATION AND LITTLE
PROGRESS
10
WHY IS MORE CUMULATION DESIRABLE? SECOND THE
BRIDGE BETWEEN THEORY AND RESEARCH REMAINS
UNFINISHED RATIONAL ACTION THEORY (RAT) AND THE
QUANTATIVE ANALYSIS OF LARGE-SCALE DATA SETS
(QAD) SINCE 1998 HAVE NOT TIED THE KNOT RAT IS
CALLING QAD NAMES VARIABLE SOCIOLOGY WITH
DUNCANS 1967 MODEL OF THE SOCIO-ECONOMIC LIFE
CYCLE AS THE SCAPEGOAT
11
WHY IS MORE CUMULATION DESIRABLE? THIRD THE
LESSON I DRAW FROM PARTICIPATION IN THE DUTCH
GRADUATE SCHOOL ICS IS THAT RAT COMES TOO CLOSE
TO ECONOMICS, MATHEMATICS AND PSYCHOLOGY AND TOO
DISTANT FROM SOCIOLOGYS QUESTIONS ABOUT SOCIETIES
12
HOW TO OBTAIN MORE CUMULATION? THE AGE-OLD
DIAGNOSIS OF WHAT IS WRONG WITH SOCIOLOGY THE
SCANDAL OF THE GAP BETWEEN THEORY AND
RESEARCH THE OLD REMEDY THEORY-GUIDED
RESEARCH WITH A THEORY, SAY RAT, YIELDING
TESTABLE HYPOTHESES, AND RESEARCH, SAY QAD, AS
TESTING THESE HYPOTHESES
13
MY DIAGNOSIS OF WHAT ELSE IS WRONG WITH
SOCIOLOGY FIRST THE NON-RELATION IN SOCIOLOGY
BETWEEN GENERAL HYPOTHESES AND SPECIFIC
HYPOTHESES NEW REMEDY BUILD MULTI-LAYERED
THEORIES CONSISTING OF MORE GENERAL AND LESS
GENERAL HYPOTHESES DERIVE MACRO PROPOSITIONS FROM
MICRO PROPOSITIONS BY USING
COLEMANS BOAT AS A
CONJUGATION SCHEME
14
MY DIAGNOSIS OF WHAT ELSE IS WRONG WITH
SOCIOLOGY SECOND THE NON-RELATION BETWEEN
SOCIOLOGYS MANY QUESTIONS NEW REMEDIES TAKE
PRESENT-DAY SMALL DOABLE QUESTIONS AS
SUB-QUESTIONS OF LONG-STANDING CENTRAL
QUESTIONS DEVISE STRINGS OF DEEPER AND DEEPER
QUESTIONS
15
QUESTION-DRIVEN THEORIZING RATIONAL CHOICE
EXPLANATIONS AND EXPLANATIONS OF ANY OTHER
TYPE SHOULD NOT ENGAGE IN CHERRY
PICKING CONTEMPORARY EXPLANATIONS SHOULD TAKE UP
AND IMPROVE AND SOMETIMES RECAST SOCIOLOGYS
CLASSICAL QUESTIONS BUT NEVER DISMISS THEM
16
THREE CLASSICAL PROBLEM SHIFTS AND PROBLEM
STRUCTURES IN SOCIOLOGY
ORDER AND VIOLENCE COHESION SOCIAL
ISOLATION SUICIDE
INEQUALITY MOBILITY RELATIVE MOBILITY RELATIVE
HETEROGAMY
WEALTH OF NATIONS RATIONALIZATION BUREAUCRATIZATIO
N DISENCHANTMENT REFINEMENT OF MANNERS SECULARIZAT
ION
17
WHAT I AM GOING TO SAY IS THAT COLEMANS BOAT
HAS BEEN TAKEN IN THE NETHERLANDS AS
SEAWORTHY WHILE I TAKE IT AS A RAFT THAT SEEKS
TO MOVE WITHOUT MASTS AND SAILS AND WITHOUT AN
ANCHOR COLEMAN IS TOO NEGATIVE ABOUT THE
QUESTIONS, THEORIES AND RESEARCH TECHNIQUES OF
CLASSICAL SOCIOLOGY
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RESEARCH FINDINGS MAY NOT ONLY TEST THEORIES THEY
ALSO MAY PROVOKE EXPLANATIONS AN EXAMPLE FROM
CLASSICAL SOCIOLOGY IS WEBERS TABLE THAT AROUND
1900 IN GERMAN STATES WITH A RELGIOUSLY MIXED
POPULATION PROTESTANTS ARE OVERREPRESENTED AMONG
THE BUSINESS OWNERS AND SKILLED WORKERS AND
CHILDREN OF PROTESTANTS AMONG THE VISITORS OF
COMMERCIALLY AND TECHNICALLY ORIENTED SECONDARY
SCHOOLS BUT DO ALL TABLES YIELD PUZZLING
FINDINGS? PUZZLES ARE THE THING TO GO AFTER!
20
RAT UNTIL NOW HAS BEEN A PARADIGM LARGELY WITHOUT
PUZZLES AND EVEN MORE SO WITHOUT PUZZLES ABOUT
SOCIETIES GOLDTHORPIAN RAT SEEKS TO EXPLAIN AN
EMPIRICAL REGULARITY WHICH IS NOT MUCH OF A PUZZLE
21
WHAT IS PUZZLING ABOUT THE FINDING FOR ALL
INDUSTRIAL COUNTRIES THAT CHILDREN FROM
UPPER-CLASS PARENTS ARE MORE LIKELY TO OPT FOR
AND ATTAIN HIGHER LEVELS OF SCHOOLING EVEN AFTER
TAKING INTELLIGENCE INTO ACCOUNT?
22
A PUZZLE WOULD BE WHY DOESNT IN COUNTRIES WITH
A SYSTEM OF STIPENDS FOR LOWER -CLASS CHILDREN
THE TIE BETWEEN CLASS OF ORIGIN AND LEVEL OF
EDUCATION WEAKEN ? BUT THERE IS NO SUCH PUZZLE
SINCE EDUCATIONAL INEQUALITIES ARE DECREASING IN
MOST INDUSTRIAL COUNTRIES !
23
THERE IS NOTHING PUZZLING ABOUT THE FINDING THAT
IN ALL EU-COUNTRIES UNEMPLOYMENT COMES IN
COUPLES BUT WHY DOES UNEMPLOYMENT STILL COME IN
COUPLES AFTER TAKING INTO ACCOUNT EDUCATIONAL
AND AGE HOMOGAMY ? THAT IS A PUZZLE !
24
MORE PUZZLES 1 WHY ARE IN ALL INDUSTRIAL
SOCIETIES PEOPLE WITH MORE SCHOOLING LESS LIKELY
TO BE UNEMPLOYED? BECAUSE THEY ARE LESS LIKELY
TO BE FIRED OR BECAUSE THEY ARE MORE LIKELY TO
FIND A NEW JOB AFTER FIRING? SURELY, IF
ENTERPRISES CLOSE PERSONS WITH MORE SCHOOLING ARE
AS LIKELY TO BE FIRED AS PERSONS WITH LESS
SCHOOLING!
25
MORE PUZZLES 2 AND 3 HOW IS IT POSSIBLE THAT IN
THE NETHERLANDS IN THE 1960S THE PERCENT OF
CATHOLICS ROSE WHILE CATHOLICS LEFT CHURCH IN
THRONGS? HOW IS IT POSSIBLE THAT RIGHT NOW
WORLDWIDE THE PERCENT OF RELIGIOUS PERSONS GROWS
AND IN EACH COUNTRY THE PERCENT OF RELIGIOUS
PERSONS STAYS STABLE OR FALLS? DO CHURCHES GROW
BECAUSE OF HIGHER FERTITLITY OR BECAUSE OF
SWITCHING?
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PUZZLE 4 WHY DO MORE LIBERAL ABORTION LAWS IN A
COUNTRY NOT ALWAYS MAKE FOR MORE ABORTIONS?
27
PUZZLE 5 HOW IS IT POSSIBLE THAT COUNTRIES WHERE
PERSONS HAVE THE HIGHEST NUMBER OF SEXUAL
PARTNERS ALSO HAVE THE LOWEST INCIDENCE OF
SEXUALLY TRANSMITTED INFECTIONS AND UNPLANNED
PREGNANCIES?
28
PUZZLE 6 NOT ABOUT SOCIETIES BUT ABOUT THE WORLD
AND ITS STATES HOW IS IT POSSIBLE THAT RIGHT NOW
WORLD INCOME INEQUALITY DECREASES WHILE INCOME
INEQUALITY IN EVERY COUNTRY INCREASES?
29
PUZZLE 7 ABOUT SOCIETIES AND INDIVIDUALS HOW IS
IT POSSIBLE THAT MORE CRIMINOLOGISTS IN A COUNTRY
GOES HAND IN HAND WITH MORE CRIME? CRIMINOLOGISTS
ARE MORE CRIMINAL THAN THE REST?
DO CRIMINOLOGISTS THROUGH WISHY-WASHY ADVICE
INCREASE THE CHANCES THAT FIRST-OFFENDERS BECOME
RECIDIVISTS?
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COLEMAN 1987 DISMISSES DURKHEIMS QUESTIONS ABOUT
SUICIDE AS SOCIOLOGICAL PUZZLES SUICIDE IS AN
INDIVIDUAL PHENOMENON DURKHEIM AT BEST BRINGS IN
SOCIAL PHENOMENA AS EXPLANATORY
FACTORS HOWEVER FOR DURKHEIM A HIGHER SUICIDE
RATE INDICATES LIMITED SOCIETAL COHESION AND ALL
OF DURKHEIMS WORK WAS CONCERNED WITH SPECIFIC
COHESION QUESTIONS
32
SOCIETAL COHESION OR THE TIES BETWEEN THE
MEMBERS OF A SOCIETY
ECONOMIC TIES THROUGH THE DIVISION OF
LABOUR 1885
SEVERING THE LAST TIE TO SOCIETY
THROUGH SUICIDE 1897
SOCIAL TIES THROUGH RELIGIOUS RITES 1912
DOES COLEMAN HAVE SUCH A PROBLEM STRUCTURE? DOES
COLEMAN DIRECT SOCIOLOGISTS TO OVERARCHING
QUESTIONS AND SUB-QUESTIONS?
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COLEMAN ALSO MISJUDGES THE DEPTH OF WEBERS
QUESTION ABOUT PROTESTANTISM AND CAPITALISM AND
THE ANTI-RAT CHARACTER OF HIS EXPLANATION WEBER
AS A HISTORIAN OF LAW REJECTED SMITHS
MACRO-HYPOTHESIS THAT LAWS STIPULATING FREEDOM OF
ENTERPRISE, LABOUR, PRICES ETC MAKE FOR THE
WEALTH OF NATIONS THESE LAWS WERE THERE IN
CHINA, AND ECONOMIC GROWTH DID NOT HAPPEN
THERE AND THESE LAWS DIFFERED HARDLY FROM 15TH
CENTURY ITALY AND 17TH CENTURY ENGLAND AND THE
NETHERLANDS WHILE STRONG ECONOMIC GROWTH ONLY
HAPPENED IN ENGLAND AND THE NETHERLANDS WEBER HAD
A PUZZLE ABOUT SOCIETIES
35
Coleman, Microfoundations of macrosocial
behavior, page 159
36
WEBER HAD A PUZZLE ABOUT SOCIETIES TO SOLVE THAT
PUZZLE WEBER WENT BACK TO THE INDIVIDUAL
LEVEL HUMAN BEHAVIOUR IS NOT ONLY DETERMINED BY
OPPORTUNITIES, BUT ALSO BY MOTIVATIONS WHY DID
THE PEOPLE IN CHINA AND IN 15TH CENTURY ITALY NOT
USE THE OPPORTUNITIES THE LAWS OFFERED AND
ACCUMULATE WEALTH IN THIS WAY? WHICH MOTIVATION
DID THE PEOPLE IN 17TH CENTURY ENGLAND AND THE
NETHERLANDS HAVE TO USE THE FREEDOMS OF LABOUR,
ENTERPRISE, ETC?
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ACCORDING TO LINDENBERG CUM SUIS OF THE
ICS EXPLANATIONS OF MACRO PHENOMENA SHOULD START
FROM THE ASSUMPTION THAT PEOPLE ACT RATIONALLY
HOWEVER, THERE ARE SEVERAL QUITE DIFFERENT
RATIONAL CHOICE EXPLANATIONS OF ONE EMPIRICAL
REGULARITY WHEREAS THE MOST GENERAL HYPOTHESIS OF
A MULTI-LAYERED THEORY SHOULD EXPLAIN SEVERAL
REGULARITIES IN ONE STROKE THAT IS WHY I LIKE TO
GO BACK TO DURKHEIMS EXPLANATION OF SUICIDE
REGULARITIES AND LENSKIS S PRINCIPLE THAT
RESOURCES MAKE FOR PRIVILEGES
39
ACCORDING TO COLEMAN THERE ARE DIFFICULTIES WITH
EXEMPLARS OF THE SOCIOLOGICAL ENTERPRISE WHEN
DERIVING PROPOSITIONS ABOUT SOCIETIES FROM
PROPOSITIONS ABOUT INDIVIDUALS THESE DIFFICULTIES
HAVE BEEN DISCUSSED IN THE INTERNATIONAL
LITERATURE BY WAY OF COLEMANS BOAT COLEMANS
BOAT DOES NOT SOLVE THEM COLEMANS BOAT
AGGREVATES THEM
40
COLEMAN, FOUNDATIONS, 1990, page 6 THE MAJOR
PROBLEM FOR EXPLANATIONS OF SYSTEM BEHAVIOR
BASED ON ACTIONS AND ORIENTATIONS AT A LEVEL
BELOW THAT OF THE SYSTEM IS THAT OF MOVING FROM
THE LOWER LEVEL TO THE SYSTEM LEVEL NOTE
COLOEMAN DOES NOT TALK ABOUT MOVING FROM THE
HIGHER TO THE LOWER LEVEL
41
THE SOLUTION COLEMANS BOAT TAKEN FROM HEDSTRÖM
2005 page 115
LINE 4 SHOULD HAVE NO DOTS, THE OTHER LINES
SHOULD BE DOTTED
42
PROBLEMS PRECEDE THEORIES PUZZLES ARE ANCHORS
FOR COLEMANS BOAT BUT IN THE BOAT THEY ARE ON
TOP! MACROPUZZLES MAKE IT POSSIBLE TO MOVE
FROM MACROTHEORIES TO MICROTHEORIES
43
WEBERS EXPLANATION IN TERMS OF COLEMANS
BOAT SMITH HAD A RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN TWO
MACRO-PROPERTIES ONE MACRO-PROPERTY REFERS TO A
COUNTRYS LAWS WHERE TO PLACE THIS COLLECTIVE
ACTOR? WEBER ALSO HAD A RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN A
MACRO-PROPERTY AND AN INDIVIDUAL PROPERTY LAWS
STIPULATING FREEDOMS ARE FOR INDIVIDUALS
OPPORTUNITIES TO ACT WEBER HAD THE SAME
RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN AN INDIVIDUALS ACTIONS AND
THE SOCIETAL OUTCOME AS SMITH IF A MEMBER OF A
SOCIETY ACCUMULATES MORE WEALTH, NATIONAL INCOME
GROWS
44
WEALTH OF NATIONS
MARKETS AS LEGAL OPPORTUNITIES
INDIVIDUAL MOTIVATIONS
INDIVIDUAL WEALTH
45
IN COLEMANS READING WEBER HAD AN ARROW BETWEEN
TWO INDIVIDUAL PROPERTIES IN MY OPINION WEBER
TOOK TWO PROPERTIES AS THE JOINT CAUSE OF
BEHAVIOUR OPPORTUNITIES PLUS MOTIVATIONS THE
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN SMITH AND WEBER WAS THAT THE
ACCUMULATION OF WEALTH WAS AN UNINTENDED
CONSEQUENCE OF THE RATIONALIZATION OF THE MEANS
OF SALVATION WEBER HAD IDEAS ABOUT TWISTED
MOTIVATIONS
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COLEMANS BOAT APPLIED TO INEQUALITY
SOCIETAL EDUCATIONAL INEQUALITY
SOCIETAL INCOME INEQUALITY
INDIVIDUAL EDUCATION
INDIVIDUAL INCOME
Coleman, Microfoundations and macrosocial
behavior, 1987, page 165
48
THE MOST COMMON MACRO-PROPOSITION ABOUT
INEQUALITY SINCE LENSKIS 1966 POWER AND
PRIVILEGE LEFT-WING GOVERNMENTS MAKE FOR LOWER
GINIS GOING BACK TO A LOWER LAYER
EXPLANATION YIELDS AN ALTERNATIVE MEASURE FOR
INCOME INEQUALITY DO NOT COMPUTE GINIS, COMPUTE
DECILE SHARES THE RIGHT-HAND SIDE OF THE BOAT IS
REPLACED
49
UNDERLYING LOWER-LAYER HYPOTHESIS IN A DEMOCRACY,
TO GOVERN ANY PARTY MUST CATER TO AT LEAST 51
OF THE VOTERS FOR THAT REASON THERE NEVER WILL
BE A REDISTRIBUTION FROM THE HIGHEST TO THE
LOWEST DECILE THE LOWEST DECILE WILL NOT BENEFIT
MUCH FROM ANY GOVERNMENT - WHETHER LEFT OR
RIGHT NEVER AGGREGATE INDIVIDUAL INCOME INTO
GINIS COMPUTE DECILE SHARES THE MORE INFORMATIVE
LOWER -LAYER HYPOTHESIS DOES AWAY WITH TOO
GENERAL MACRO - MEASURES FOR INEQUALITY NOT THAT
THESE MEASSURES ARE WRONG THESE MEASURES DO NOT
FIT THE HYPOTHESES AT HAND
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51
BOUDON CURSED DUNCANS MODEL AS VARIABLE
SOCIOLOGY THAT TERM OF OPPROBATION WAS APPLIED
AGAIN TO DUNCANS MODEL BY HEDSTRÖM AND IS NOW
APPLIED GENERALLY BY ESSER
52
DUNCAN THE AMERICAN OCCUPATIONAL STRUCTURE 1967
page 170 THE BASIC MODEL, WHICH PERTAINS TO THE
USA IN 1962 SURELY, FIVE INDIVIDUAL VARIABLES
DOTS REFER TO VARIABLES, ARROWS STAND FOR EFFECTS
53
MISSINGCOEFFI-CIENTS .342 .321 .288
.313
DUNCANS INGREDIENTS OF ADVANCED MODELS FOR FOUR
AGE GROUPS
54
DUNCAN COMPUTED FOUR MODELS TO TEST THE
HYPOTHESIS THAT THE SHIFT FROM AGRICULTURE TO
INDUSTRY IN A COUNTRY WEAKENS THE TIE BETWEEN
FATHERS AND SONS OCCUPATION AND STRENGTHENS
THE BOND BETWEEN INDIVIDUAL EDUCATION AND
OCCUPATION
55
IS THAT HYPOTHESIS A MACRO-PROPOSITION OR IS THAT
HYPOTHESIS A MICRO-PROPOSITION? THAT HYPOTHESIS
IS A MACRO-MICRO-PROPOSITION!
56
SO, THE BOTTOM OF COLEMANS BOAT IS ALSO ITS ROOF
57
DUNCANS RELATION BETWEEN EDUCATION AND INCOME
IS NOT ONLY AN INDIVIDUAL RELATION IT IS ALSO
A MACRO PROPERTY IT REFERS TO THE USA IN
1962 AND IT IS A VARIABLE SOCIETAL PROPERTY IT
CAN BE COMPUTED FOR OTHER PLACES AND TIMES
58
ONE WAY TO TURN A RELATION BETWEEN TWO MICRO
PROPERTIES IN A MACRO PROPERTY
INDIVIDUAL EDUCATION USA 1962
INDIVIDUAL INCOME USA 1962
INDIVIDUAL EDUCATION USA 1973
INDIVIDUAL INCOME USA 1973
INDIVIDUAL EDUCATION NETHERLANDS 1993
INDIVIDUAL INCOME NETHERLANDS 1993
INDIVIDUAL EDUCATION NETHERLANDS 2003
INDIVIDUAL INCOME NETHERLANDS 2003
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IF A SOCIETYS INCOME DISTRIBUTION DOES NOT
CHANGE THIS DOES NOT MEAN THAT THE INCOME OF
ALL INDIVIDUALS OR ALL HOUSEHOLDS DOES NOT
CHANGE THAT IS WHY MOBILITY QUESTIONS ARE GOOD
FOLLOW-UPS TO DISPARITY QUESTIONS
61
ANOTHER WAY TO TURN A RELATION BETWEEN TWO MICRO
PROPERTIES INTO A MACRO PROPERTY
INFLOW AND OUTFLOW PERCENTAGES
OCCUPATION FATHER
OCCUPATION SON
62
ANOTHER WAY TO TURN A RELATION BETWEEN TWO MICRO
PROPERTIES INTO A MACRO PROPERTY
ODDS RATIOS FOR UNEQUAL COMPETITIVE OUTCOMES
OCCUPATION FATHER
OCCUPATION SON
63
ANOTHER WAY TO TURN A RELATION BETWEEN TWO MICRO
PROPERTIES INTO A MACRO PROPERTY
INFLOW AND OUTFLOW PERCENTAGES
ODDS RATIOS FOR UNEQUAL COMPETITIVE OUTCOMES
OCCUPATION FATHER
OCCUPATION SON
A RAFT WITH TWO MASTS AND TWO SAILS TO REPRESENT
THE SHIFT FROM THE FIRST TO THE THIRD GENERATION
OF MOBILITY STUDIES THE SAILS TAKE THE RAFT IN
DIFFERENT DIRECTIONS AND MAKE FOR SEPARATE
MACROQUESTIONS
64
COLEMAN ABOUT RELATIVE MOBILITY QUESTIONS ONE
SHOULD NOT ELIMINATE QUESTIONS ABOUT
STRUCTURES HOWEVER, LOGLINEAR AND REGRESSION
MODELS ARE CAPABLE OF MODELLING STRUCTURAL
DIFFERENCES LOGLINEAR MODELS YIELD SHIFT
COEFFICIENTS LINEAR REGRESSION MODELS YIELD
INTERCEPTS AND IT IS QUITE POSSIBLE TO ADDRESS
QUESTIONS ABOUT THE RELATION BETWEEN SHIFT AND
DISTANCE AND THE RELATION BETWEEN INTERCEPT AND
SLOPE
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MOVING FROM A LOWER-LAYER HYPOTHESIS TO A
HIGHER-LAYER HYPOTHESIS AMOUNTS TO
RE-INTERPRETING AN INHERENT PROPERTY AS A
RELATIONAL PROPERTY Popper, Aim of science,
1957, page 29
67
POPPERS RELATIONAL PROPERTIES COMPRISE WHAT IS
KNOWN IN SOCIOLOGY AS CONTEXTUAL
PROPERTIES SMITH INTERPRETED MARKETS NOT SIMPLY
AS A MACRO - PHENOMENON BUT ALSO AS A RELATIONAL
PROPERTY OF AN INDIVIDUAL
68
HOW TO GO BEYOND THE IDEA OF CONTEXTUAL
PROPERTIES OF INDIVIDUALS AND MAKE MULTI -
LAYERED THEORIES? DISTINGUISH TYPES OF CONTEXTUAL
PROPERTIES AND SPELL OUT A THEORY COMPRISING
HIGHER- AND LOWER-LAYER HYPOTHESES AND AUXILIARY
ASSUMPTIONS
69
WHICH AXIOMS AND AUXILIARY ASSUMPTIONS DOES THE
RAT PARADIGM HAVE? BECKER, A TREATISE ON THE
FAMILY 1981, page viii THIS VOLUME USES THE
ASSUMPTIONS OF MAXIMIZING BEHAVIOR, STABLE
PREFERENCES, AND EQUILIBRIUM IN IMPLICIT OR
EXPLICIT MARKETS
70
BECKER HERE STATES THE AXIOM THAT INDIVIDUALS
ARE RATIONAL AND THE AUXILIARY ASSUMPTION THAT
THEY ACT ON MARKETS HOWEVER, NOT ONLY MARKETS
COORDINATE INDIVIDUAL BEHAVIOR AUXILIARY
ASSUMPTIONS ARE NOT ANCILLARY ASSUMPTIONS
71
RATIONAL CHOICE SOCIOLOGY IS A MISNOMER THE
PROPER NAME IS MARKET SOCIOLOGY THIS IS NOW
RECOGNIZED IN THE SOCIOLOGY OF RELIGION ALBERT
MARKTSOZIOLOGIE UND ENTSCHEIDUNGSLOGIK 1967
Iannaccone, Voodoo economics?, 1995, page 76
an application of rational choice theory
- the religious market alternative to
secularization theory -
72
HOW TO EXPAND MARKET SOCIOLOGY? RAT IS IN NEED OF
A THEORY OF SOCIETY WHICH GOES BEYOND THE
AUXILIARY ASSUMPTION THAT MARKETS ARE THE ONLY
INSTITUTION COORDINATING HUMAN ACTION
73
HEILBRONER AND THE PRODUCTION OF INDIVIDUAL
GOODS MARKETS HUNGER AVERSION
HIERARCHIES PAIN AVERSION COMMUNITIES DERISION
AVERSION FREE AFTER HEILBRONER, THE WORLDLY
PHILOSOPHERS, 1953
74
SO, APART FROM MARKET SOCIOLOGY THERE
IS ORGANIZATIONAL SOCIOLOGY AND CULTURAL
SOCIOLOGY THE OPPOSITION BETWEEN RATIONAL
ACTION AND NORM-GUIDED BEHAVIOR IS FALSE
75
VAN DEN DOEL AND THE PRODUCTION OF COLLECTIVE
GOODS BY SOCIETAL POLITIES WISE BENEVOLENT
DICTATOR TWO INDEPENDENT PERSONS A
POPULATION MAKING
UNANIMOUS DECISIONS MAJORITY
DECISIONS VAN DEN DOEL DEMOCRACY AND WELFARE
ECONOMICS 1978
76
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77
STATISTICAL MODELS FROM THE NIJMEGEN RESEARCH
PROGRAM ON THE CONSEQUENCES OF THE SHIFT FROM A
HIGLY RELIGIOUS SOCIETY TO AN ULTRA-LIBERAL
SOCIETY THE MULTI-LEVEL MODELS CONTAIN
CONTEXTUAL PROPERTIES WHICH PERTAIN TO
STATES MARKETS COMMUNITIES
78
CONTEXTUAL EFFECTS AND THE COLEMAN BOAT
MACRO-Y
MACRO-X
MICRO-X
MICRO-Y
THE HULL OF COLEMANS BOAT REINFORCED
79
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80
FROM QUESTIONS ABOUT BEING A CHURCH MEMBER OR
NOT TO QUESTIONS ABOUT REMAINING IN OR LEAVING
CHURCH THREE REGULARITIES TO BE EXPLAINED
LIBERAL PROTESTANTS MOST LIKELY TO LEAVE ,
ORTHODOX PROTESTANTS LEAST OLDER PERSONS ARE LESS
LIKELY TO LEAVE THE HIGHER SOMEONES EDUCATION ,
THEY HIGHER THE CHANCES OF LEAVING CHURCH BY THE
PRINCIPLE THAT OPPORTUNITIES AND MOTIVATIONS
MAKE FOR BEHAVIOUR
81
FAMILY SURVEY DUTCH POPULATION 1998
INSTALLMENT LOOSING MY RELIGION (NUFFIELD
REMIX) NAN-DIRK DE GRAAF, NEED, ULTEE 2004
82
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83
COMMUNITY EFFECT PROTESTANT SCHOOLS COUNTER
CHURCH LEAVING CATHOLIC SCHOOLS DO NOT MARKET
EFFECT THE MORE NON-RELIGIOUS PERSONS THERE
ALREADY ARE IN A PROVINCE THE MORE LIKELY IS A
RELIGIOUS PERSON LIVING IN THAT PROVINCE TO LEAVE
CHURCH MANIPULATION OF THE INTERACTION TERMS FOR
YEAR AND DENOMINATION SHOW THAT NOWADAYS CHANCES
OF LEAVING CHURCH DO NOT DIFFER BETWEEN
DENOMINATIONS
84
NOTE THAT WE CIRCURVENT THE IMPOSSIBILITY OF
STATISTICALLY DISTINGUISHING EFFECTS OF AGE ,
COHORT AND PERIOD BY BRINGING IN SUBSTANTIVE
HYPOTHESES

85
IF RELIGIOUS PARENTS VOTE FOR A LEFT-WING PARTY
THEIR CHILDREN ARE MORE LIKELY TO LEAVE CHURCH
MARKET EFFECT IRRESPECTIVE OF A RELIGIOUS
PERSONS EDUCATION THE HIGHER THE AVERAGE LEVEL
OF EDUCATION IN THIS PERSONS PROVINCE THE MORE
LIKELY THIS PERSON IS TO LEAVE CHURCH
86
THE MAIN EFFECT OF AGE DOES NOT DISAPPEAR AFTER
INTRODUCING LEAVING HOME AND MARRIAGE THE MAIN
EFFECT OF EDUCATION DOES DISAPPEAR AFTER
INTRODUCING AN INTERACTION OF LEAVING HOME AND
EDUCATION INTERACTION OF OPPORTUNITY AND
MOTIVATION PEOPLE BECOME NON-RELIGIOUS WHEN
THEY LEAVE HOME AND CONTINUE THEIR EDUCATION
87
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88
OFFICIAL STATISTICS OF DEATH CAUSES AND SUICIDES
THE NETHERLANDS 1936-1973 WE PAID FOR
DIAGITALIZATION OF THE DATA
89
DURKHEIM FOUND FOR GERMAN STATES AT THE END OF
THE 19TH CENTURY PROTESTANTS ARE MORE LIKELY TO
DIE OF SUICIDE THAN CATHOLICS
90
WE POSTULATED A MARKET EFFECT IF THE PERCENT
OF NON - RELIGIOUS PERSONS IN A MUNICIPALITY IS
HIGHER THE SUICIDE RATE FOR EVERY RELIGION IS
HIGHER AND WE POSTULATED A COMMUNITY EFFECT IF
THE PERCENT OF CATHOLICS IN A MUNICIPALITY IS
HIGHER ONLY THE SUICIDE RATES FOR CATHOLICS ARE
LOWER
91
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92
VAN TUBERGEN, TE GROTENHUIS, ULTEE AJS 2005
93
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94
FAMILY SURVEY DUTCH POPULATION 2003
INSTALLMENT 2006 PUBLICATION IN DUTCH
OF LUBBERS, JASPERS, ULTEE FORTHCOMING IN ENGLISH
95
ANSWERS TO AN EXTREME 2003 SURVEY ITEM OLDER
ITEMS DID NOT DIFFERENTIATE ANYMORE
96
MEN MUCH MORE THAN WOMEN IN FAVOR OF ABOLISHING
GAY MARRIAGE EDUCATION MOVES PEOPLE FROM
NEUTRALITY TOWARDS MAINTAINANCE NO EFFECT OF
MOTHERS EDUCATION AND RELIGION AFTER BRINGING IN
MOTHERS ATTITUDE TOWARDS HOMOSEXUALITY WHEN
PERSON WAS YOUNG INDIVIDUAL RELIGION HAS LIMITED
EFFECT WHEN MEASURED AS MEMBERSHIP MORE SO IF
MEASURED AS CHURCH ATTENDANCE CHURCH ATTENDANCE
MAKES PEOPLE MOVE FROM NEUTRALITY TOWARDS
ABOLITION LIVING IN A PROTESTANT AREA MAKES
PEOPLE MORE IN FAVOR OF ABOLISHING GAY MARRIAGE
97
Table 4 Importance of the different determinants
in explaining attitude towards the abolition of
gay marriage (by removing one characteristic from
model 5 in table 3b n1204)  
Importance of determinants of attitude towards
the abolition of gay marriage assessed by
removing one characteristic from final model
 
98
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99
OPINIONS ABOUT ABORTION IN WESTERN EUROPE
1981-2000 14 COUNTRIES FROM THE EUROPEAN VALUES
SURVEY FORTHCOMING BY NEED, LEVELS, ULTEE
100
APART FROM INDIVIDUAL CHARACTERISTICS
LIKE GENDER AGE DENOMINATION EDUCATION CHURCH
ATTENDANCE CONTEXTUAL CHARACTERISTICS
LIKE PERCENT OF NON-RELIGIOUS IN AREA PERCENT OF
CATHOLICS IN AREA AVERAGE EDUCATION IN
AREA STRICTNESS OF NATIONAL ABORTION LAW NUMBER
OF ABORTIONS IN COUNTRY AS PERCENT OF NUMBER OF
BIRTHS
101
ASSUMED CAUSAL ORDER PERCENT OF
CATHOLICS STRICTNESS ABORTION LAW NUMBER OF
ABORTIONS
102
CATHOLICS MORE OPPOSED AGAINST ABORTION PROTESTANT
S NOT CHURCH ATTENDANCE MAKES FOR
OPPOSITION EDUCATION LOWERS OPPOSITION
103
THE STRICTNESS OF THE ABORTION LAW MAKES FOR MORE
INDIVIDUAL OPPOSITION THIS HIERARCHY EFFECT IS
INDIRECT BY WAY OF THE ABORTION RATIO PERCENT OF
NON - BELIEVERS MAKES FOR LESS OPPOSITION PERCENT
OF CATHOLICS HAS NO INFLUENCE AVERAGE EDUCATION
MAKES FOR LESS OPPOSITION
104
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105
IMPROVING AUXILIARY ASSUMPTIONS ABOUT MACRO
OUTCOMES MARKETS OPTIMAL EQUILIBRIA OR
COMPETITIVE EXCESSES? HIERARCHIES CRIME-FREE
STREETS OR BUREAUCRATIC PATCHWORK? COMMUNITIES
SHARED COSINESS OR PRESTIGIOUS LEADERS WITH
SECRETE VICES?
106
DID I SINK THE COLEMAN? COLEMANS BOAT WAS
ALREADY MAKING WATER BUT DID I PRESENT AN
AIRWORTHY PLANE? TO BE POSTED ON MY
WEBSITE TYPE IN GOOGLE WOUT ULTEE THE FIRST
HIT GO TO FOREIGN PRESENTATIONS