Development, Climate and Energy Project

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Development, Climate and Energy Project Thematic
Area 3 Linking Mitigation and Adaptation
Amit Garg and Kirsten Halsnæs
Presentation for First Project Meeting 13
February 2005, Paris
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Presentation Sequence

• Outline of AR4, WG-2, Chapter 18 on Inter-
  
• Relationships between Adaptation and
  Mitigation
• Issues for consideration
• Analytical frameworks
• Proposed outline of TA-3

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Chapter 18, WG-2, AR4 Contents

• Introduction
• Background and rationale
• Structure of the chapter
• Summary of relevant knowledge in IPCC TAR
• Framing the decision problem
• Inter-relationships between adaptation and
  mitigation
• Trade-offs and synergies
• Climate policy and institutions
• Response capacity

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Contents contd.

• Adaptation, mitigation and international
  agreements
• Multilateral environmental agreements
• Other agreements and mechanisms
• Adaptation, mitigation and development
• Response capacity and development pathways
• Adaptation, mitigation and sustainable
  development
• Adaptation, mitigation and sustainable
  development the decision problem
• Information needs
• Uncertainties, unknowns and knowledge
  requirements
• Priorities for research
• Conclusions

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Key Messages

• On a global scale, climate policy is not about
  the question of whether to
• mitigate climate change or to adapt to it.
  Both are necessary.
• Whilst there are many differences between
  adaptation and mitigation, the
• two options are inter-related in at least
  three important ways (prevent
• dangerous anthropogenic interference,
  international negotiations,
• development pathways)
• Analysis of the inter-relationships between
  adaptation and mitigation
• may promote the effective implementation of
  climate policy
• Links with other international agreements and
  mechanisms
• Information needs

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Examples of mitigation and adaptation linkages

• Air conditioning and heat waves
• Rural Electrification Programme with Solar Energy
  in Remote Region
• Strategy for Promotions and Development of
  Renewable Technologies in
• Bangladesh Experience from Grameen Shakti
• Renewable Energy Technologies for Fuelwood
  Conservation in the Indian
• Himalayan Region
• Experimental Study of Using Renewable Energy in
  the Rural Areas of Oman
• The Potential for Bioenergy Production from
  Australian Forests, its Contribution to
• National Greenhouse targets and Recent
  Developments in Conversion Processes
• Afforestation and GHG Mitigation in Brazil
• Ethanol and biodiesel
• Horse-power Urban domestic recycling and the
  development of sustainable local
• community structures
• Community forest management in Mexico

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TA-3 Issues for Consideration
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Climate change impacts, vulnerability, and
adaptation in the energy sector with a special
emphasis given to linkages between adaptation and
mitigation policies in the energy sector.

• Differences, similarities and trade-offs between
  mitigation and adaptation
• Possible linkages in the energy sector
• Common driving forces at national policy level
• Ascertain common risks and uncertainty
• Develop an analytical framework
• Modelling efforts
• Apply framework to country case studies
• Institutional issues

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Differences betweenMitigation and Adaptation

• Mitigation policy is more global involving many
  countries, adaptation is
• more within a country and local
• Costs of mitigation arise locally while its
  benefits are dispersed globally.
• For adaptation both accrue locally
• Time frames (mitigation decades to centuries,
  adaptation years to decades)
• Time delays between action and results
  (mitigation larger, adaptation
• much shorter)
• Implementation mechanisms

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Similarities betweenMitigation and Adaptation

• Overlapping issues while conceptualizing
  Adaptive and Mitigative capacities
• Help prevent dangerous anthropogenic
  interference with the climate
• systems
• Common concerns such as market failures
• Common solutions such as renewable energy,
  afforestation, market
• development
• Linkages with development pathways
• Subject of international negotiations on climate
  policy and related
• institutions

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Trade-offs between Mitigation and Adaptation

• Mitigation expenditure may divert social or
  private resources and may
• reduce funds available for adaptation (e.g.
  investment to develop
• agriculture infrastructure for poor and
  marginal farmers)
• If mitigating carbon emissions enhances dirty
  biomass use in rural areas
• thus increasing indoor air pollution and
  exposures
• If adaptation implies more energy use (space
  cooling, heating) from
• carbon intensive resources, it affects
  mitigation efforts negatively

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Possible linkages in the energy sector

• Energy Access
• Energy efficiency
• Renewable energy sources (e.g. afforestation for
  energy crops, biofuels offer
• mitigation and higher employment per unit of
  energy generated, biogas based lighting
• and cooking, irrigation water pumping using
  solar/ wind, biodiesel based generators)
• New energy sources (e.g. hydrogen)
• Transportation (e.g. better roads and
  infrastructure reduce fuel consumption and
• improve access to markets, GHG and local
  pollutants links and disjoints)
• The costs and the reduction potential of the
  wind energy depend on the power
• market, grids, land costs, financial markets
  etc. Many of these context specific
• issues also influence how adaptation
  measures like irrigation and improved
• management practices can be implemented in
  agriculture
• ??

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Some common driving forces

• Land reforms
• Access to commodity markets
• Access to financial markets (would facilitate
  access to insurance sector)
• Access to energy and electricity markets
• Governance profile (local/ regional/ central
  institutions)

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Common risks and uncertainty

• Some examples
• Extreme events on coasts (energy infrastructure
  and coastal populations)
• Draughts (enhanced energy requirements for
  irrigation and drinking water
• access, marginal farmers badly affected)
• Explore common solutions by applying
  precautionary principles
• Access to insurance systems (private and
  community)
• Hedging strategies (e.g. low water crops)
• Inclusion of low-probability events in risk
  assessment

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Modelling efforts

• SRES and stabilization scenario results for
  energy efficiency, renewable, and new energy
• technology penetrations
• Identify winner RE technologies that are
  projected to have highest shares under
• various scenarios in the project
  participating countries, estimated range of
  population
• affected directly due to enhanced RE
  penetration
• Mitigation potential assessment, role of
  renewable technologies for each country, sectoral
  
• and regional flexibility in mitigation
  indicating sectors/ regions that may supply more
• credits at lower carbon prices
• Employment generation potential for each country
• Costs and investments
• Estimate adaptive capacity enhancement??
• Develop indicators for linking mitigation and
  adaptation (qualitative and quantitative)

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Institutional issues

• Regulatory frameworks and policy regimes
• Stakeholder management
• Barriers to linkages social, technological,
  financial, implementation
• Stimulate public-private partnerships
• How to replicate national successful case
  studies
• Integrated National CC Policies
• Role of international institutions

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Analytical frameworks
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The sequential nature of the climate policy
process
Source ZOD Chapter 18 of WG-2, AR4
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Adaptation, mitigation and development paths
Source ZOD Chapter 18 of WG-2, AR4
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Climate policy decision-making and development
paths
Source ZOD Chapter 18 of WG-2, AR4
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Linkages between response capacity and desired
adaptation and mitigation
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TAR figure on SD, adaptation and mitigation
interactions
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Integrated Assessment Framework India Study

• Prime issues identified are national emission
  assessment of local and global pollutants, and
  assessment of impacts on natural and human
  systems.
• These interactions and their results are modified
  and managed by the socio-economic development
  paths selected by the country.

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Interactions between the climate, natural and the
socio-economic systems and the relationships to
SD and adaptation-mitigation
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Analytic Framework for Case Studies

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Proposed Outline of TA-3
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• Overview
• Why to link mitigation and adaptation?
• Differences, similarities and trade-offs
• Development pathways
• Energy sector related adaptation and mitigation
  concerns in developing countries
• What is at stake? (Extent of impacts in the
  participating countries)
• Existing adaptation policies and measures
• GHG emission projections from the energy sector
• Possible linkages in the energy sector
• Energy access
• Energy efficiency
• Water
• Renewable energy sources
• New energy sources
• Transport
• Wind and others

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Thanks