FUTURE: Force Utilization Through Unit Readiness and Efficiency

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FUTURE Force Utilization Through Unit Readiness
and Efficiency

• Dave Cashbaugh
• Navy Personnel Research, Studies, and Technology
  (BUPERS-1)
• david.cashbaugh_at_navy.mil

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Capable Manpower ProcessFY08 FY12

• Purpose Development and focused transition of
  innovative technology-based products to enable
  transformation in Navy Human Systems / Human
  Performance programs, including
• Gap 1 Manning to the Edge (Manpower/Personnel)
  
• Gap 2 Human Systems Integration (HSI)
• Gap 3 Training and Education
• Gap 4 Performance in Networked Environments
• Gap 5 Understanding our Opponents
• Total Funding Approximately 25,000,000
  per year.
• Individual efforts Approximately 250,000 to
  5,000,000 per year.
• Period of Performance 1 to 5 years, beginning 1
  Oct 2007 (FY08).

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FUTURE History

• ONR BAA 05-23 announced JUN 05
• White paper response SEP 05
• Full FUTURE proposal submitted MAR 06
• Awarded DEC 06
• Program initiation OCT 07
• 4M annually FY08 - FY12

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N1 GapsNew Technology Deliverables

• Capability-driven manpower
• Competency based workforce
• Active/reserve/civilian integration or
  substitution
• Competitive incentive structures
• Agile and cost efficient allocation of resources

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Recurring Themes

• Inflexible requirements determination system
• Limited lateral entry
• Restricted career/assignment choice
• Up-or-out career management
• Cliff-vesting retirement system
• Disjointed approach to compensation
• Incentive pays have become entitlements

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Proving the Paradigm

• Hypothesis
• Cost efficiencies can be achieved when resource
  allocation resides with decision makers
  responsible for mission execution
• Experiment
• Create a simulation environment to test resource
  allocation and policy decisions that use
  decentralized business practices
• Sensitivity to various incentive structures

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Possibilities ... for Units

• Unit level personnel management
• Total visibility over potential (total force)
  labor pool
• Dynamic ship and squadron manning profiles
• Flexible contracts to meet mission needs
• Pay for performance
• Negotiable compensation (with visibility over
  outside economic factors)
• Promote to position
• Rotations aligned with operating schedules
• Unit level cost management
• Responsibility for all operating costs
• Incentives to achieve efficient readiness

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Possibilities ... for Individuals

• Flexible career paths (on/off ramps, separate
  technical and management tracks)
• Total visibility over potential jobs/salaries
  (including external markets)
• Incentives to self-invest in training and
  education
• Portable defined-contribution retirement accounts
• Flexible contracts to meet individual needs
• Type duty and location
• Negotiable compensation
• Pay for performance

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What FUTURE Brings...
Optimization Modeling/Simulation Computer
Science Economics Psychology
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Science Technology Disciplines

• Economics
• Behavioral Economics
• Mechanism Design
• Game Theory
• Estimation and Inference
• Computer Science
• Modeling and Simulation
• Agent Based Modeling
• Optimization

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FUTURE Force Utilization ThroughUnit Readiness
and Efficiency

• Product Description
• Integrated decision support tools that enable
  decentralized personnel management
• Validated incentive alternatives that effectively
  and efficiently influence personnel behavior
• Simulation environment that provides unparalleled
  analysis of alternatives
• TRL at Start 4
• TRL at Transition 6

• Planned Deliverables/Transitions
• Q4/FY08 Readiness and cost metrics
• Q4/FY09 Max-Fit/Incentives
• Q4/FY10 OSB/STEER/LCST
• Q4/FY10 STEER
• Q4/FY11 ALERT
• Q4/FY12 ANNA/CAPT/CCPT
• Q4/FY12 BEACON

• Warfighting Payoff
• Supports CNP Strategic Vision
• Facilitates capability based Manpower
• Enables competency-based workforce
• Effectively employs the total force
• Competitive in the marketplace
• Agile and Cost Efficient

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Simulation Toolset for Experimental Environment
Research (STEER)

• Product Description
• Integrated simulation tool set to analyze effect
  of policies on individual, unit, and enterprise
  behavior
• Structures incentives and labor-capital
  combinations to maximize ROI
• Minimizes inefficiencies by identifying poor
  policies prior to adoption
• TRL at Start 4
• TRL at Transition 6

• Planned Deliverables/Transitions
• Integrated Product Team
• Integrated simulation environment
• Experimental designs
• Behavioral economics experiments
• Readiness and cost metrics

• Warfighting Payoff
• Provides assessment and performance metrics
  across Total Force
• Delivers incentive models for efficient selection
  of incentives to achieve Navy goals.
• Facilitates detailed analysis of policy
  alternatives capturing effects on readiness and
  efficiency

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Optimized Skill Bank (OSB)

• Product Description
• Manpower and personnel repository for entire
  Total Force
• Determines readiness gaps, delivering optimal
  skill-person-job matches across the Total Force
• Increases readiness fit and reduces Navy training
  costs through labor substitution
• TRL at Start 4
• TRL at Transition 6

• Planned Deliverables/Transitions
• Military/civilian skills crosswalks
• Prototype system Sailor/job matching
• Skill matching optimization algorithm
• Improved readiness metrics based on skills

• Warfighting Payoff
• Provides commanders and job seekers a web-based
  job marketplace to match available labor to
  requirements
• Provides a common lexicon for defining skills
  across the Total Force
• Optimizes person-job matches with respect to
  readiness and efficiency

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Max-Fit

• Product Description
• Informs OSB in support of the STEER and BEACON
• Delivers market wage information to the OSB
• Develops dynamic supply and demand models for
  Navy skills
• Provides real-time data for better decision
  making
• TRL at Start 4
• TRL at Transition 6

• Planned Deliverables/Transitions
• Independent dynamic supply and demand models for
  Navy skill sets
• Defined communication protocol to sync with the
  OSB
• Integrated economic models to facilitate STEER
  simulations

• Warfighting Payoff
• Valid real-time analysis of the impact of costs
  and readiness at all levels of the organization
• Optimized readiness fit and reduced Navy training
  costs through efficient labor substitution

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Incentives

• Develops incentive-based personnel behavior
  models for FUTURE
• Theoretical models validated through behavioral
  experiments
• Enables analysis of alternative incentives
• Determines most cost efficient ways to transition
  to new incentive structure
• Incorporates incentive information to STEER
• Provides behavior models to inform software
  agents within STEER

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Assessment of Labor Efficiency and Readiness Tool
(ALERT)

• Links readiness to traceable, validated, robust
  metrics
• Informs on impending and future readiness gaps
  and risks, maximum and current readiness
  profiles, readiness scenario projections and
  personnel demand signals that enable the Navy to
  maintain readiness into future planning years
• Minimizes surplus skill supplies and increases
  reliability of planning over long time horizons
  to avoid readiness gaps, set incentives, and
  improve resource allocation

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Career Analyzer and Planning Tool (CAPT)

• Allows Sailors to research entire spectrum of
  career options via Web portal
• Receives candidate jobs from the OSB, provides
  Sailor feedback on skill matches, submits job
  applications and accepts job offers on behalf of
  the Sailor via ANNA
• Reduces gaps in inventory skills and improves
  career development guidance for Sailors

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Cost, Compensation, and Training Planner (CCTP)

• Delivers collection of cost planning and
  allocation tools to facilitate budget allocation
  planning and training schedules, at the unit and
  across the MPTE domain
• Provides labor tradeoff analyses to optimize unit
  budget
• Provides readiness metrics to identify training
  needs and promotion plans to maximize personnel
  readiness
• Aids units in establishing skill-specific fair
  market compensation
• Flexible wage system reduces costs, increases
  retention, and improves unit readiness through
  early warning and identification of possible
  causes and options for remedial action

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Automated Network of Negotiation Agents (ANNA)

• Employs agents to achieve market equilibrium
  between personnel and available jobs
• Ensures efficient distribution of skills at the
  unit level, considering the incumbents remaining
  time onboard and candidates seeking employment
• Engages in negotiations that maximize readiness
  and efficiency
• Increases retention by mitigating disutility
  associated with poor person-job matches

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ST Mapped to Products and Operational Goals
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ST Challenge Behavioral Economics

• Incorporate behavioral constructs of individual
  decision-making and choice behavior into an
  immersive environment
• Examine psychological effects that distort
  standard utility maximizing models
• Apply distribution and reciprocal-kindness social
  utility models to the influence of fairness on
  groups that exhibit reciprocally fair behavior
• Examine the relationship of cooperation in
  decision-making and identify those incentive
  structures and other factors that increase
  cooperation
• Identifies incentives for skill acquisition and
  market clearing pay rates

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Game Theory

• Design game theoretical models to test the effect
  of incentive structures on fairness,
  coordination, and individual decision outcomes,
  while controlling for individual risk preferences
• Use game theory results to design incentive
  structures to influence individual choice
• Supports determination of Navy-individual
  compatible pay structures

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Modeling and Simulation

• Develop a dynamic multi-user immersive
  environment to test and measure incentive
  structures and the impacts of proposed MPTE
  system and policy changes
• Apply adaptive modeling to create simulations
  that are self organizing and reactive to their
  environment
• Build simulation models incorporating surrogate
  models to efficiently reduce model search space
• Develop hybrids which combine artificial
  intelligence technology with semi-parametric
  forecasting methods
• Supports analysis of proposed policy changes,
  cost/readiness tradeoffs, gap between skill and
  training needs for inventory requirements

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Optimization

• Build simulation-optimization models using
  metaheuristics to choose future input parameters
  based on objective function output of previous
  simulations
• Exploit metaheuristic optimization technologies
  and constraint programming in hybrid approaches
  for quality solutions to NP-hard problems within
  reasonable times
• Incorporate combinatorial optimization modeling
  and generalized differential algorithms
• Apply parallelism in hardware, software, and
  algorithms to solve large-scale optimization
  problems efficiently
• Supports cost/readiness tradeoff analysis,
  optimal incentive structures, and job-skill
  matching

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Computer Science Agent Technologies

• Incorporate psychological characteristics, such
  as performance, IQ, stress tolerance, and risk
  preferences into intelligent software agents
• Develop hybrid agents (includes AI and
  metaheuristic optimization) for decentralized
  bilateral negotiation
• Supports visibility and tradeoff analysis over
  aggregate readiness and costs
• Supports job negotiation functionality

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Risk Developing Quantitative Measure of Mission
Readiness

• Difficulty in converting qualitative measure
  (Required Operational Capability/Projected
  Operation Environment) to quantitative measure
  lies in units of measurement to allow fair
  comparisons of performance outcomes between and
  across missions
• To mitigate this risk, began exploring developing
  quantifiable index measures of the incremental
  value of individual skills controlling for
  readiness requirements
• Alternative mitigation strategy is to use an
  ordinal ranking of mission readiness requirements
  that incorporate the incremental value of
  individual skills

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Estimation and Inference

• Apply EI methods to estimate demand, supply,
  labor substitutability or complementarity, costs,
  and utility functions
• Explore alternative methods such as
  semi-parametric and Bayesian estimation to
  overcome limitations of maximum likelihood
  assumptions with ill-behaved data
• Identifies market clearing pay rates
• Estimates used to predict cost and readiness
  outcomes at unit and enterprise levels