PowerPointPrsentation

1
LC for statistical and dynamical adaptation

• Workshop 5-6 May 2003, ZAMG, Vienna
• Sessions
• 1. Statistical / probabilistic methods
• 2. Physical / dynamical combined
  methods
• Number of presentations (countries) 20 (13)
• Presentations available at the SRNWP homepage
  
• http//srnwp.cscs.ch/

2
Adaptation methods presented

• MOS
• PPM
• Kalman filter
• Neural network
• Fuzzy system (exp.)
• 3-d dynamical adaptation
• 1-d PBL model
• Road surface model

3
Problems
Is statistical adaptation still necessary?
YES!!! Skill improvement of NWP DMO is slow
? adaptation equivalent to many years of further
NWP model improvement Verification problem
higher variability in more realistic NWP model
produces higher rmse ? standard scores may
deteriorate
4
Further activities
May 2004 Overview on new developments in
adaptation since 2003 workshop (coordinator T.
Haiden, via e-mail) May 2005 3rd SRNWP Workshop
on Statistical and Dynamical Adaptation, Vienna