We Have Not Crossed the Chasm

1
We Have Not Crossed the Chasm

• AIDC 100 Strategic RFID Workshop
• RFID Journal LIVE!
• Orlando, FL
• 27 April 2009

by Sprague Ackley Intermec
2
Have we not crossed the chasm?

• What is a chasm and when is it crossed?
• RFID and the comparison to bar code
• The lessons from standards
• Finding the chasm
• The other side of the chasm

3
What is a chasm and when is it crossed?

• According to Websters
• Chasm
• 1 a deep cleft in the surface of a planet (as
  the earth) gorge
• 2 a marked division, separation, or difference

4
What is a chasm and when is it crossed?

• Crossing the Chasm Marketing and Selling
  High-Tech Products to Mainstream Customers by
  Geoffrey Moore - 1991
• The most difficult step is making the transition
  between the early adopters and mainstream
  application

5
What is a chasm and when is it crossed?

• The chasm is crossed when a technology becomes
  mainstream
• A technology is mainstream when it is
  everywhere

6
RFID and the comparison to bar code

• RFID and bar code can track things
• Bar code had its most visible application start
  in April 1973
• Bar code grew slowly then rapidly
• Bar code is everywhere
• Bar code has crossed the chasm

7
The lessons from standards bar code

• After UPC in 1973, first industry standards in
  1982
• Early application standards for Military,
  Automotive and Healthcare in early 80s
• First bar code quality standard 1990
• Bar code was everywhere by 1995 to 2000

8
The lessons from standards RFID

• First industry standards UHF in 2004
• Early application standards for Military,
  Automotive and Retail mid 2000s
• First RFID quality standard in process
• RFID will be everywhere by ????

9
Finding the chasm

• Growth of scanning supermarkets
• Growth of early bar code industry
• Growth of current RFID industry
• Growth of future RFID industry

10
Growth of scanning supermarkets
Data from George Goldberg Memorial Digitization
Project, Special Collections Department, Stony
Brook University Library
11
Growth of scanning supermarkets
12
Growth of scanning supermarkets
CHASM
13
Growth of early bar code market
Data courtesy Paul Bergé International LLC.
Y-axis in USD (billions).
14
Growth of bar code market
15
Growth of bar code market
CHASM
16
Growth of current RFID industry
Data courtesy VDC. Y-axis in USD (billions).
17
Growth of future RFID industry
18
Growth of future RFID industry
CHASM
19
The other side of the chasm

• RFID has yet to reach the mainstream
• Like early bar code applications, current
  successful RFID applications tend to be
  closed-loop
• Standards will eventually stabilize and support
  rapid open-system growth
• RFID will cross the chasm

20
The other side of the chasm

• It is difficult to make predictions -
  particularly about the future.
• (Confucius, Winston Churchill, Groucho Marx,
  'Yogi' Berra and several others Nature 455, 729,
  9 October 2008)

21
We Have Not Crossed the Chasm

• AIDC 100 Strategic RFID Workshop
• RFID Journal LIVE!
• Orlando, FL
• 27 April 2009

by Sprague Ackley Intermec