EP 704 Unit 6

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EP 704Unit 6

• Project Time Management

Dr. J. Michael Bennett, P. Eng., PMP UNENE,
McMaster University, The University of Western
Ontario Version 2K6-X-08
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Revisions

• 2K6-X-08 Initial Creation

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EP 704 Road Map

• Unit 1 Introduction to Project Management
• Unit 2 The Project Management Context
• Unit 3 Project Management Processes
• Unit 4 Project Integration Management
• Unit 5 Project Scope Management
• Unit 6 Project Time Management
• Unit 7 Project Cost Management
• Unit 8 Project Quality Management
• Unit 9 Project Human Resource Management
• Unit 10 Project Communications Management
• Unit 11 Project Risk Management
• Unit 12 Project Procurement Management

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Process Time Management

• Here we estimate the time and sequencing of WBEs
• Must have the WBS done
• The material is presented as sequential but
  likely will be significant overlap
• In smaller projects, activity sequencing and
  duration and schedule development will be a
  single process done by the PM

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Project Time Management Processes

• 6.1 Activity Definition
• 6.2 Activity Sequencing
• 6.3 Activity Resource Estimating
• 6.4 Activity Duration Estimating
• 6.5 Schedule Development
• 6.6 Schedule Control

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PMI Project Time Management
6.1 Activity Definition .1 Inputs .1 EEF
.2 OPA . 3 Scope Statement .4 WBS
.5 WBS Dictionary .6 PMP .2 Tools and
Techniques .1 Decomposition .2
Templates .3 Rolling Wave Planning .4
XJ .5 Planning Component .3 Output .
1 Activity list .2 Activity Attributes .
3 Milestone List .4 Requested Changes
6.3 Activity Resource Estimating .1 Inputs
.1 EEF .2 OPA .3 Activity List .4
Activity Attributes .5 Resource
Availability .6 PMP .2 Tools and Techniques
. 1 Expert judgment .2 Alternatives
Analysis .3 Published Estimating Data
.4 PM Software .5 Bottom-up Estimating .3
Output .1 Activity Resource
Requirements .2 Activity Attributes
(Updates) .3 Resource Breakdown Structure
.4 Resource Calendars (Updates) .5
Requested Changes
6.2 Activity Sequencing .1 Inputs .1 Scope
Statement .2 Activity List . 3 Activity
Attributes .4 Milestone List .5
Approved Change Requests .2 Tools and Techniques
.1 Precedence diagramming (PDM) .2 Arrow
diagramming (ADM) .3 Schedule Network
Templates .4 Dependency Determination
.5 Applying Leads and Lags .3 Output .1
Schedule Network Diagrams .2 Activity Lists
(Updates) .3 Activity Attributes (Updates)
.4 Requested Changes
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PMI Project Cost Management
6.5 Schedule Development .1 Inputs .1 OPA
2 Scope Statement .3 Activity List .4
Activity Attributes .5 Schedule Network
Diagrams .6 Activity Resource Requirements
.7 Resource Calendars .8 Activity
Duration Estimates .9 Risk Register .2 Tools
and Techniques .1 Schedule Network Analysis
.2 Critical Path Method .3 Schedule
Compression .4 What-if Scenario Analysis
.5 Resource Leveling .6 Critical Chain
Method .7 PM Software .8 Applying
Calendars .9 Adjusting Leads and Lags
.10 Schedule Model .3 Output .1 Project
Schedule .2 Schedule Model Data .3
Schedule Baseline .4 Resource Requirements
(Updates) .5 Activity Attributes (Updates)
.6 Project Calendars (Updates) .7
Requested Changes .8 PMP (Updates)
6.6 Schedule Control .1 Inputs .1 Schedule
Management Plan .2 Schedule Baseline .3
Performance Reports .4 Approved Change
Requests .2 Tools and Techniques .1 Progress
Reporting .2 Schedule CC System .3
Performance Measurement .5 PM software
.6 Variance analysis .7 Schedule Comparison
Bar Charts .3 Output .1 Schedule Model
Data (Updates) .2 Schedule Baseline
(Updates) .3 Performance Measurements
.4 Requested Changes .5 Recommended
Corrective Actions .6 OPA (Updates) .7
Activity List (Updates) .8 PMP (Updates)
.9 Activity Attributes (Updates)
6.4 Activity Duration Estimating .1 Inputs
.1 EEF .2 OPA .3 Scope Statement
.4 Activity List .5 Activity Attributes
.6 Activity Resource Requirements .7
Resource Calendars .8 PMP - Risk
Register - Activity Cost Estimates .2
Tools and Techniques .1 Expert Judgment
.2 Analogous Estimating .3 Parametric
Estimating .4 Three-point Estimates .5
Reserve Analysis .3 Output .1 Activity
Duration Estimations .2 Activity Attributes
(Updates)
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Scope Statement
6.1 Activity Definition

PMP, SMP
WBSD
Activity List, Attributes, Milestone List
Approved Change Reqs
Requested Changes
Res Avail
Requested Changes
PMP Updates
History, Calendar
Schedule Network Diagrams
Resource Availability
Requested Changes
Resource Availability
Act Res Rqs, RBS, Res Cals
Activity Cost Estimates
Requested Changes
Risk Register
Activity Duration Estimates
Requested Changes
Performance Reports
Schedule Model data Sched Baseline Res Reqs
Proj Cal UD
Work Performance Information
History, Calendar
Requested Changes
OPA Updates
Perf Mease UDs of AL, AA, PMP, Sked BL Proj
Sked
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6.1 Activity Definition
1 Activity List 2 Activity Atts 3 Milestone
List 4 Reqed Changes
1 EEF 2 OPA 3 Scope Statement 4 WBS 5 WBS
Dictionary 6 PMP
1 Decomposition 2 Templates 3 Rolling Wave 4 XJ 5
Planning Comp

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1 Activity List

• Comprehensive list of all project schedule
  activities
• Includes schedule identifier and enough detail
  for the team to understand what to do
• Usd in the schedule model and the PMP
• AL ? WBS components

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2 Activity Attributes

• Such as
• Activity identifier
• Activity codes
• Activity description
• Predecessor activities
• Successor activities
• Logical relationships
• Leads and lags
• Resource requirements
• Imposed dates
• Assumptions and constraints

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3 Milestone List

• All milestones must be IDed
• Mandatory or optional

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4 Requested Changes

• AD can generate changes

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6.1.2 Activity Definition TT

• 1 Decomposition
• 2 Templates
• 3 Rolling Wave
• 4 XJ
• 5 Planning Component

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Recall Simons Tripartite Division

• Level 1 Milestones
• Level 2 WBSes
• Level 3 Schedule Activities

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EHB Example

• Milestone sign-off of Driver module
• WBS completed requirements
• SA review requirements with customer
  Stakeholders - ½ day 4 people

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1 Decomposition

• Subdivides WPs into smaller components called
  schedule activities
• These are schedule driven not deliverable driven

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2 Templates

• Useful from previous projects
• Used to estimate resource skills, hours of
  effort, risk ID, etc

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3 Rolling Wave

• Progressive elaboration
• Detail near-term events
• Leave the far-term adumbrated, to be detailed
  later at a more appropriate time
• Early on, leave far-term at the milestone level

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4 XJ

• Mumble mumble

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5 Planning Component

• When insufficient definition of the scope is
  available to decompose the WBS, leave the last
  node as a PC
• Control Account a node to be developed further
  later
• Planning Package subcomponent above the WP but
  below the CA

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6.1.3 Activity Definitions Outputs

• .1 Activity List
• .2 Activity Attributes
• .3 Milestone List
• .4 Requested Changes

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1 Activity List

• Includes all schedule activities needed to be
  done on the project
• Includes
• Activity identifier
• Work description in enough detail to schedule and
  understand the work
• SAs are discrete units but are NOT WPs

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2 Activity Attributes

• Expansion of characteristics of SAs including
• Activity ID
• Activity code
• Activity description
• Predecessor activities
• Successor activities
• Logical relationships
• Leads and lags
• Resource requirements
• Imposed dates
• Constraints
• Assumptions

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3 Milestone List

• List of all milestones
• Mandatory
• Optional
• Will be part of the PMP and used for Milestone
  Scheduling

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4 Requested Changes

• Since we are fleshing out interior details of the
  WPs, changes will be needed as more detail is
  unfolded.
• Fed through ICC of course.

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6.2 Activity Sequencing
1 Scope Statement 2 Activity List 3 Activity
Attributes 4 Milestone List 5 Appd Change Reqs
1 PDM 2 ADM 3 Sched NW Temps 4 Dependency Det. 5
Leads and Lags
1 Sched NW Diags 2 Act. Lists (Up) 3 Act. Atts
(Up) 4 Reqd Changes

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Modalities of Scheduling

• Gantt/bar charts
• Milestone charts
• Networks
• ADM
• Precedence
• PERT

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Problems with Each

• Gantts do not show interdependencies
• PERTs et al are time intensive, too much detail
• Each is useful in their own right not the final
  solution

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Example Gantt, Milestone, PERT
1
14
14
1
5
3
4
4
3
4
1
2
7
1
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Network Fundamentals

• Shown through a diagram. Visualization of
• Activity interdependence
• Project completion time
• Impact of early/late starts
• Trade-off analysis
• what if scenarios
• Cost of crashing
• Slippages in planning/performance
• Performance evaluation

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6.2.2 Tools Techniques

• 1 Precedence Diagramming Method (PDM)
• 2 Arrow Diagramming Method (ADM)
• 3 Schedule Network Templates
• 4 Dependency Determination
• 5 Leads and Lags

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1 Precedence Diagramming Method (PDM)

• Also called AON (activity on Node)
• Puts effort on the node
• Most common today

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PDM (pmbok)
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Definitions (activities on node AON)

• Event is start or end of group of activities
  (circle)
• Activity is work required to move from event to
  event (node time)

Complete testing
Final report
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Dependency Relations

• Finish-to-Start (must finish before next can
  start)
• Finish-to-Finish (must finish before next can
  finish)
• Start-to-Start (must start before next can start)
• Start-to-Finish (must start before next can
  finish)
• All of these assume 100 completion could have a
  percentage

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Network Analysis
ES
ACTIVITY DESCRIPTION
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Zero or 1?

• Note do we start at day 0 or day 1?
• Most folks start at 0

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Forward Pass
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Earliest-Latest Dates
10
10
F
3
1
1
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Backward Pas
-8
-8
-11
-11
D
5
-3
-3
0
0
-12
-12
F
3
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Critical Path
10
10
F
3
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Comments

• Idea of Critical Path
• Note FP is done to estimate finish date
• BP is done when finish date is fixed and you want
  to know when to start
• Must be the same

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(No Transcript)
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2 Activity on Arrow (Arrow Diagramming Method)

• Event is start or end of group of activities
  (circle)
• Activity is work required to move from event to
  event (arrow)

2 weeks
Complete testing
Final report
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Sources and Sinks
Source (burst point)
Sink
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Comments

• Idea of Critical Path
• Can use optimistic, normal or pessimistic time
  estimates (Ro6?)
• Can use dummy variables to help in sequencing
• PERT for high variance
• CPM for low

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Mathematical Choices

• Critical Path Method (CPM)
• Graphical Evaluation and Review Technique (GERT)
• Program Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT)

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PERT/GERT/Network Analysis

• Basic Definitions
• How to Crash Critical Paths (later)
• Estimating ranges of completion times

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Graphical Evaluation and Review Technique (GERT)

• Permits an iterative looping in the schedule
  (none of the others do)
• Uses probabilistic estimates

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Program Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT)

• Uses a weighted average like the Rule of Six
• Good for calculating best, expected and worse
  case scenarios

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The Beta Distribution EV(BC4MLWC)/6
BC
ML
EV
WC
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Estimating the SD PERT-wise

• s (WC-BC)/6
• If you have many, you must add up the variances
  not the ss. (var s2)

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Example
2,3,4
3,5,7
4,7,10
s ab 0.33 sbc 1.0 scd 0.67
sad v s2ab s2bc s2cd
sad v (.3321.020.672) 1.25
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Definitions

• Dependencies
• Hard must be done first
• Soft may be necessary or not (I can start high
  level design before all requirements are done)
• External beyond PMs control

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Dummy Activities
4lt1,2,3
D
A
DUMMY
B
C
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Slack Time

• time between scheduled completion date and
  required date (to meet CP)
• TE is earliest time event can take place
• TL is latest time
• ST TE TL

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PERT with Slack Time
TE3TL3
TE6TL9
3
3
6
TE0TL0
7
TE15TL15
2
5
5
TE2 TL5
TE10TL10
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Can Refine

• ES earliest start
• EF earliest finish
• LS latest start
• LF latest finish

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Full PERT
ACTIVITY IDENTIFICATION
EARLIEST START TIME
EARLIEST FINISH TIME
ACTIVITY TIME
LATEST FINISH TIME
LATEST START TIME
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PERT with Full Slack Times
F(15,22) 7(15,22)
B(6,15)9(6,15)
E(15,18) 3(15,18)
I(18,21) 3(19,22)
A(0,6)6(0,6)
G(12,14)6(17,19)
D(6,12) 6(11,17)
H(12,16) 4(18,22)
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PERTing Along
develop schedule
feedback
Resource control
plan?
Management Approval
BL plans schedule
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How to Feedback?

• Transfer resources from sps to cps
• Eliminate activities
• Add more resources
• Use less time-consuming activities
• Parallelize more
• Shorten CP
• Shorten earliest activities

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• Shorten latest activities
• Increase number of working hours/day
• Use cheaper people

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Parallelizing to Shrink Critical Paths
4
16
2
3
2
4
0
16
0
3
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Nested PERTs
8
9
7
5
4
2
4
6
C
E
B
F
D
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PERT Life Cycle

• 1 lay out list of activities
• 2 order them and add arrows
• 3 review with line managers
• 4 doers add time estimates (unlimited Res)
• 5 PM adds calendar dates (limitations)
• 6 Checks reality of calendar dates

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Perturbation Analysis

• Always check if times change dramatically
• Primary Objectives are
• Best time
• Least cost
• Least risk

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Secondary Objectives

• Alternatives
• Optimum schedules
• Effective use of resources
• Communications
• Refinement of the estimating process
• Ease of project control
• Ease of time/cost revisions

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PERT Constraints

• Calendar completion
• Cash flow
• Limited resources
• Management approvals

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PERTs and CPMs

• PERTs are event-oriented
• Good for RD
• Hard to tell percentage complete
• Payouts at milestones
• CPMs are activity-oriented
• complete along lines can be done
• Good for well-defined activities

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CPM best for

• Well-defined projects such as construction
• One dominant organization
• Relatively small risk
• One geographic location

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Project Software Support

• Level I (Excel)
• Level II (MS)
• Level III (Artemis)
• Level IV (in-your-dreams)
• REMEMBER
• SOFTWARE DOESNT MANAGE PROJECTS PEOPLE DO

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SW Capabilities

• System capacity
• Network schemes (AD/PRE)
• Calendar dates
• Gantt charts
• Flexible report generation
• Updating
• Cost control
• Scheduled dates

• Sorting
• Filtering
• Resource allocation
• Plotting
• Machine requirements
• Cost

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3 Schedule Network Templates

• Mature organizations will have general templates
  to begin the work
• Especially if portions are repetitive. Such as
  floors on a high-rise, clinical trials, software
  module construction.

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4 Dependency Determination (3 kinds)

• Mandatory
• Normal (see PDM 4 types)
• Discretionary
• Such as a preferred way of executing a sequence
  of events when there are several OK paths
• External
• Outside the PMs control such as delivery of
  necessary hardware, Y2K, laws, etc

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5 Leads and Lags

• Lead permits the acceleration of the successor
  task. Eg. Can start chapter 2 15 days before
  chapter 1 is complete (F2S with 15 day lead)
• Lags delay next task. Concrete must cure for 15
  days. Therefore a F2S with a 15 day lag
• Leads and Lags can be negative (but why?)

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Lag Time

• Suppose that B lags A by 3

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6.3 Activity Resource Estimating
1 EEF 2 OPA 3 Activity List 4 Act Atts 5 Resource
Avail 6 PMP
1 Xpert Judgment 2 Alternative Anal 3 Published E
Data 4 PM Software 5 Bottom-up Est
1 Act Res Reqs 2 Act Atts (ups) 3 Res BD
Structure 4 Res Cals (ups) 5 Reqd Changes

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6.3.1 ARE Inputs

• EEFs
• Uses infrastructure resource availability as per
  the nature of the company
• OPAs
• Policies for staffing
• Rental or purchase of supplies, equipment
• Historical information
• Resource Availability
• In the market now? Later?

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6.3.2 Tools and Techniques

• 1 Expert Judgment
• 2 Alternative Analysis
• 3 Published Estimating Data
• 4 PM Software
• 5 Bottom-up Estimation

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1 Expert Judgment

• Experts in the area can tell us who we need
• Any group or person having area-specific
  knowledge use\ful here

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2 Alternatives Analysis

• Make-or-buy decisions
• Who can do the work
• May be necessary to outsource some of the
  schedule activities
• Can we cannibalize other work?

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3 Published Estimating Data

• There are commercially available books of
  production rates and unit costs for trades,
  material, equipment, in many countries or
  geographical areas

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4 PM Software

• PM software can use RBSs, resource availability,
  resource calendars, to allocate for us

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5 Bottom-up Estimation

• If we cannot estimate the needed resources, may
  need more decomposition into finer detail.
  Continue the decomposition until we can estimate
  and then roll back up

87
6.3.3 ARE Outputs

• 1 Activity Resource Requirements
• 2 Activity Attributes (ups)
• 3 Resource Breakdown Structure
• 4 Resource Calendars (ups)
• 5 Required Changes

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1 Activity Resource Requirements

• IDs types and quantities of resources required
  for each schedule activity.
• Can then roll up for total for the work package
• Will lead to the estimation numbers in the next
  section

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3 Resource Breakdown Structure

• Same as WBS only for RBS

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6.4 Activity Duration Estimation
1 EEF 2 OPA 3 Scope Statement 4 Act List 5 Act
Attributes 6 Act Res Reqs 7 Res Cals 8 PMP
1 Xpert judgment 2 Analogous Est 3 Parametric
Est 4 Three-point Ests 5 Reserve Anal

1 Act Duration Ests 2 Act Atts (ups)
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General

• This is big
• We take all of the preceding and roll it all up
  into the best time estimate that we can manage.
• We need to know the size of the work and the
  production rates to time it out

92
Other things

• Need to know the expected working periods
• Do you count weekends?
• Also what is the normal metric for effort?
• ph?
• pd?
• pm?
• py?

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6.4.1 Inputs to Activity Duration Est

• 1 EEF
• 2 OPA
• 3 Scope Statement
• 4 Activity List
• 5 Activity Attributes
• 6 Activity Resource Requirements
• 7 Resource Calendars
• 8 PMP

94
1 EEF

• Historical data important
• Also when durations are not driven by the work
  but by things like
• Curing time of concrete
• Time to get approvals through government agencies

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2 OPA

• Recorded data from previous work important here
• Team effort records (sw for example, fp/m rates
  of individuals)

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Historical Information

• Can come from the PM morgue
• In many engineering areas, there are tables
• Steel girders, for example
• Unions have rates
• Commercial databases

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3 Scope Statement

• Assumptions from the Scope reporting periods can
  dictate maximum schedule durations
• Review periods
• Document submittals etc.

98
6 Activity Resource Requirements

• Trickery trickery trickery.
• Will affect the schedule
• EG need 2 engineers to do the design
• If only 1 is available, may take twice (or more
  likely more than twice) to complete
• Applying n resources will not cut the time by
  1/n. In fact may increase it.

99
Resource Requirements

• Is it the case that the work can be paralleled?
• For example, two people can do the work twice as
  fast as one
• But be careful the fallacy of linear scaling
• There comes a time when adding more people to the
  work only causes it to take longer

100
5 Resource Capabilities

• People do work at different rates
• Senior people should be faster than juniors
• Some areas are human-specific
• in coding, it has been measured, that holding all
  other variables constant, there can be a ten to
  one difference in coding rates (Weinstein, 1972)

101
8 PMP Inputs

• Risk Registry
• Risks are associated with resource availability
  and goodness of resources
• Activity Cost Estimates
• Can use activity cost estimates from the PMP here

102
Remember the Cops and the Donuts

• We need two estimates
• SIZE
• EFFORT
• We also want to specify the confidence levels of
  our numbers
• Rule of 6 good here

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Risk

• Need to estimate the costs of risk
• High risk means higher costs because of the risk
  oversight and possible mitigation

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6.3.2 TT for Activity Duration Est

• 0 Introduction to Estimation
• 1 Expert Judgment
• 2 Analogous estimates
• 3 Parametric Estimating
• 4 Three-Point Estimates
• 5 Reserve Analysis (contingency)

105
0 Estimating in General

• General Idea
• Rules of Thumbs and SWAGs

106
General Principles of Estimation

• General Principles
• Pitfalls of Estimation
• General Volumetrics

107
General Estimating

• Estimates are just that!
• Example how long does it take you to drive to
  work?

108
Distributions

• How measurements might be distributed
• Plot the length of 100 meter sticks
• Plot the Julian birthday of every Canadian (JBD
  is the day of the year tat you were born. Jan011
  and Dec 31365)

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The Normal Distribution
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Normal Distribution
6S 3.4 in 106
5S 1.0 in 105
4S 1.0 in 104
3S 1.0 in 103
2S 1.0 in 102
1S 1.0 in 101
MEAN
111
Six-Sigma

• One and two tailed estimates
• Ours are normally one-tailed
• 2? is 99
• 3? is 99.9
• 4? is 99.99
• 5? is 99.999
• 6? is 3 part in a million (99.9999)

112
Question?

• You have a 2400 square foot house and you order
  your cleaner to clean it to within 6?.
• What is the size of the largest piece of dirt?
• A thimble?
• A teacup?
• A saucer?
• A bathroom?

113
General Estimating cont.

• normally, use the average
• the (141) / 6 is good
• be realistic (factor in time of year)

114
Rules of Thumbs

• My Uncle's example
• The Rule of 3
• The Back of the Envelope

115
The Rule of 3

• 3 people in my house
• 30 close neighbours
• 300 on my jogging route
• 3000 in my school draw
• 30000 in my ward
• 300,000 in London
• 3,000,000 in Ontario-Toronto
• 30,000,000 in Canada
• 300,000,000 in NA (- Mexico)
• 3,000,000,000 "consumers" in the world

116
Rules of Thumbs (jon bentley)

• How much water flows out of the Mississippi River
  in one day (cu miles)?

117
Rule of 72

• Exponential are difficult
• Most of our problems ARE expos
• If you invest a sum that must double in y years
  at an interest rate of r percent/yr then ry 72
  holds. (RULE OF 72)
• Example, how long will it take for 1,000 to
  double at 6? 72/612 years (2012)

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Example

• A program takes 10 seconds for size n40
• Increasing n by 1 increases time by 12 (expo)
• Rule-of-72 says RT doubles when n increases by 6
• By 60, then 1,000
• By 160, 107 seconds

119
Help Ma!

• How BIG is 107 anyway?
• Actually dear, 3.155x107 seconds in a year
• Or ? seconds in a nanocentury
• 264 100,000,000 donuts/sec for 5,000 years

120
The Delphi Approach

• No clear way to estimate
• Gather a group of Xperts
• Give them the problem they go away and
  independently estimate as well as they can
• They meet and exchange information
• Then they repeat the above
• After 3-4 cycles they will normally converge on a
  unified answer

121
A Little Quiz (thanks Jon)(give 141 confidence
limits)

• Canadian population Jan 1,2004
• Year of Napolean's birth
• Length of the Great Lakes/St Lawrence watershed
• Maximum takeoff weight of a 747 (pds)
• Mass of the earth
• Number of Fathers of Confederation

122

• Latitude of London England
• Number of airplanes in the air at this minute
• Number of PCs in Canada
• Number of bones in the adult human

123
General Estimating cont.

• make sure you have a complete SOW
• work out the WBS completely
• hand off to the person responsible to estimate
  and cost
• collect them in the PP
• note that you do this at EACH of the three levels
  of report generation

124
Things to Avoid

• warm fuzzies
• too-new technologies
• biggies
• too-optimistic estimates
• LINEARITY

125
Linear Scaling

• 1 person can do the work in 8 days
• 2 can do it in 4
• 4 can do it in 2
• 8 can do it in 1
• 16 can do it in ½ a day
• 32 in a ¼
• 64 in an hour etc etc

126
Examples

• How many kilometers per year does a taxi driver
  drive if he works an 8 hours day 200 days a year?

127
Conclusions, Crystal Balling

• It Works!
• can easily tailor the tool to the organizations
  process and culture
• can instrument to collect metrics
• can do the EV easily
• can prompt the user for missing steps
• can archive for the Morgue
• can collect quality metrics

128
1 Expert Judgment

• Remember my definition of xpert

129
2 Analogous Estimates

• Compares against work already done
• Is really a form of expert judgment
• Are most reliable when
• Previously done activities are very similar
• Experts really know the area

130
3 Parametric Estimating

• When we know the rates
• For example, function points and the Industrial
  Averages

131
4 Three-Point Estimates

• Most likely
• Optimistic
• Pessimistic
• Useful for worst-case, best-case scenarios
• Rule-of-Six gives better estimates

132
4 Reserve Analysis (contingency)

• Buffer in case of risky activities
• Need to annotate the reasons for asking for one
• Known-unknowns (contingency)
• Unknown-unknowns (management reserves)

133
6.4.3 Outputs for Activity Duration Est

• 1 Activity duration estimates
• 2 Bases of estimates
• 3 Activity lists updates

134
1 Activity Duration Estimates

• Need also to list the confidence levels of the
  estimates
• Prob or SD good here

135
6.5 Schedule Development
1 OPA 2 Scope Statement 3 Act List 4 Act Atts 5
Sched N/W Diags 6 Act Res Reqs 7 Res Cals 8 Act
Dur Ests 9 Risk Register
1 Sked N/W Anal 2 CPM 3 Sked Compress 4 What-if
Anal 5 Res Leveling 6 Critical Chain 7 PM
Software 8 Applying Cals 9 Adjusting LLs 10
Schedule Model
1 Project Sched 2 Sched Model Data 3 Sched
Baseline 4 Res Reqs (ups) 5 Act Atts (ups) 6 Proj
Cals (ups) 7 Reqd Changes 8 PMP (ups)

136
Inputs from OPAs

• Project calendar may dictate days when no work
  can be done.
• Shifts may be constrained

137
Input from Scope Statement

• PSS can contain assumptions and constraints that
  affect schedule development two main types
• 1 Internally imposed dates
• Agreed-upon contract dates
• Weather restrictions
• Governmental mandated compliance dates
• Start no earlier than and Finish no later
  than most commonly used
• 2 Externally imposed dates
• Stakeholders can dictate important dates
• Milestones hat connect to external projects

138
7 Calendars

• These show when resources and the project are
  available for work assignment
• Resources have vacations, religious holidays etc
• A labour contract may limit the days of the week
  a person can work

139
6.4.2 TT for Schedule Development

• 1 Schedule Network Analysis
• 2 Critical Path Method
• 3 Schedule Compression
• 4 What-if Analysis
• 5 Resource Leveling
• 6 Critical Chain Method
• 7 PM Software
• 8 Applying Calendars
• 9 Adjusting Leads Lags
• 10 Schedule Model

140
1 Schedule Network Analysis

• This generates the project schedule
• Uses the following techniques
• Checks for loop or open ends

141
2 Critical Path Method

• Uses the earliest start and finish dates and the
  late start and finish dates without any regard to
  resource limitations
• Worries about float
• Does a forward pass and a backward pass
• Uses a single estimate for each activity
• Leads to a Critical Path and a deterministic
  schedule

142
Types of Float

• Free Float time a task can be delayed without
  delaying the early start date of its successor
• Total Float - time a task can be delayed without
  delaying the project completion date
• Project Float - time the project can be delayed
  without delaying the externally imposed project
  completion date (by customer, management, project
  manager etc.)

143
Passes

• To compute the likely finish time plus critical
  path(s)
• Forward pass
• Start at the beginning
• Backward pass
• Start at the customers wanted finish date and
  work backwards
• Can have negative float!

144
3 Schedule Compression

• Two ways to compress without descoping
• Crashing
• Fast-tracking

145
Crashing

• Try to compute the CP
• Work out the cost per week to crash
• Start with lowest

146
Crashing with CPM
D.2
B.6
A.4
.
F.6
C.2
E.7
147
Crash Data
148
Crash details

• Normal time
• Crash time
• Note follows U-curve
• CT is most compressed time
• Compute (CC-NC)/(NT-CT)

149
Crashing

• Try to compute the CP
• Work out the cost per week to crash
• Start with lowest

150
Crashing Problems

• May not be possible
• Will INCREASE costs for sure
• Assumes that you can take people off one task and
  add them to another (true in construction for
  example may well NOT be true in IT!)

151
Fast Tracking

• Do CP tasks that were planned in series, in
  parallel
• Problems
• Often forces rework
• Increases risk
• Requires more communications
• May cost more (need new people)

152
4 What-if Scenario Analysis

• As seen
• Often uses Monte Carlo techniques to check out
  worst-case, best-case, random-case examples

153
5 Resource Leveling

• Critical path may over-allocate resources
• Necessary to level them
• An option in MSP

154
Resource Loading and Leveling

• Resource loading amount of individual resources
  an existing project schedule requires during
  specific time periods
• Resource histograms show resource loading
• Over-allocation means more resources than are
  available are assigned to perform work at a given
  time

155
Resource Leveling

• Resource leveling is technique for resolving
  resource conflicts by delaying tasks
• Primary purpose of resource leveling create a
  smoother distribution of resource usage reduce
  over-allocation

156
Resource Histogram for Large IT Project
157
Histogram Showing an Over allocated
Individual
158
Resource Leveling Example
159
6 Critical Chain

• A better way
• Each activity has a mean of execution time, not a
  constant
• CC says, start as soon as you finish
• Suppose A ? B, A 42, B63
• CMP says B starts on Day 5, regardless
• CC says, start on Day 3 if lucky

160
CC comments

• Idea is to take advantage of early finishes
• What tends to happen in Anal Orgs is that the
  start date of each task is fixed
• When CP task slips, whole project time slips
• When it is early, people go fishing until the
  specified start date of the next task
• CC starts ASAP and averages out under runs and
  overruns

161
7 PM Software

• Can be used to do the preceding techniques
• Can print out nice diagrams of the schedules
• Can compress/expand as needed

162
8 Applying Calendars

• Used to cover weather events etc. as seen
• Can be used for scenarios such as
• Only regular hours allocated
• Two shifts
• 7x24 shifts

163
9 Adjusting Leads Lags

• Can be modified in the simulation to see how
  sensitive the schedule is to adjusting leads and
  lags

164
10 Schedule Model

• This is the final sign-offed product that will be
  used for the duration of the project
• Very important for ICC to check the effects of
  changes in scope, requirements

165
Coding Structure

• Activities should have a code (database?) so that
  you can sort/extract on different attributes of
  the activities such as
• Responsibility
• Geographic area
• Building
• Project phase
• Schedule level
• WBS classification

166
6.5.3 Outputs from Schedule Development

• 1 Project Schedule
• 2 Schedule Model Data
• 3 Schedule Baseline
• 4 Resources Requirements (ups)
• 5 Activity Attributes (ups)
• 6 Project Calendars (ups)
• 7 Required Changes
• 8 PMP (ups)

167
1 Project Schedule

• Includes at least a start and end date for every
  schedule activity
• Normally presented graphically
• Network Diagram
• Bar (Gannt) charts
• Milestone charts

168
2 Schedule Model Data

• Supporting data for all activity attributes, all
  schedule activities, all assumptions and
  constraints
• Also may include
• Resource requirements by time period
• Alternative schedules (best, worse)
• Schedule contingency reserves

169
3 Schedule Baseline

• This is the approved-by-management schedule for
  tracking purposes

170
6.6 Schedule Control

• This must do 3 things
• Ensure that changes are agreed on
• Determine that the schedule has changed
• Managing the changes when they occur
• Is another example of change control and if it is
  integrated properly, can be rolled up into it

171
Schedule Control
1 Sked model (ups) 2 Sked BL (ups) 3 Perf
Meass 4 Reqd Changes 5 Recd Corrects 6 OPA
(ups) 7 Act List (ups) 8 PMP (ups) 9 Act Atts
(ups)
1 Prog Reporting 2 Sched CC System 3 Perf
Meast 5 PM Software 6 Variance Anal 7 Sched Bar
Charts
1 Sched Man Plan 2 Sched BL 3 Perf Reps 4 Appd
Change Reqs

172
6.5.1 Inputs to Schedule Control

• 1 Schedule Management Plan
• 2 Schedule Baseline
• 3 Performance Reports
• 4 Approved Change Requests

173
3 Performance Reports

• These flow out of communications
• Indicate when we are falling behind and signal
  the need for change

174
4 Approved Change Requests

• Once an item has been baselined, it is put under
  CCM
• Should be a form which is filled out and this,
  when approved by the CCB, is put into the
  Schedule Control process

175
6.5.2 TT for Schedule Control

• 1 Progress Reporting
• 2 Schedule CC System
• 3 Performance Measurement
• 5 PM Software
• 6 Variance Analysis
• 7 Schedule Bar Charts

176
1 Progress Reporting

• Records actual start and finish dates (as opposed
  to planned)
• Has all EV measurements
• Should be in an org-wide template form

177
2 Schedule Change Control System

• Formal procedure by which we do the changes
• See unit 4.
• Is a very important case of CCM
• Is isolated here to stress its importance
• Necessary approvals here important

178
3 Performance Management

• Need to understand the metrics of PM and assess
  if change is needed immediately or can it wait?
• If the activity is on the CP, do it now
• If off the CP, could wait a bit

179
4 PM Software

• Lets us know when corrective action is necessary
• Could be a push technology (here be dragons!)

180
5 Variance Analysis

• Critical for the EV portion of time
• Float is key here
• Need to sort sub-critical paths in terms of
  increasing float

181
6 Schedule Comparison Bar Charts

• Also called double Gantting
• Two bars one the actuals, one the planned. Is
  another way to track progress. Note the fallacy
  compared with EVM

182
6.5.3 Outputs from Schedule Control

• 1 Schedule Model (ups)
• 2 Schedule Baseline (ups)
• 3 Performance Measurements
• 4 Required Changes
• 5 Required Corrects
• 6 OPA (ups)
• 7 Activity List (ups)
• 8 PMP (ups)
• 9 Activity Attributes (ups)

183
1 Schedule Model Updates

• Any modification to the schedule
• Must notify stakeholders
• May trigger updates to other parts of the PMP

184
Schedule Baseline Revisions

• These are changes to the projects start and
  finish date
• Are major
• May require rebaselining (a Baaaad thing)
• Rebaselining is a Last Resort

185
5 Corrective Action

• Anything done to bring future performance in line
  with the planned estimates
• Often involves expediting
• Need to do a root cause analysis to avoid future
  deviations

186
6 OPA Updates (Lessons Learned)

• REALLY important
• Those who ignore the failure lessons of history
  are doomed to repeat them G. Santayana

187
Chapter Six Time Management

• 2000 Edition
• 6.1 Activity Definition
• 6.2 Activity Sequencing
• 6.3 Activity Duration Estimating
• 6.4 Schedule Development
• 6.5 Schedule Control

• Third Edition
• 6.1 Activity Definition
• 6.2 Activity Sequencing
• 6.3 Activity Resource Estimating
• 6.4 Activity Duration Estimating
• 6.5 Schedule Development
• 6.6 Schedule Control

188
Case Study Panama Canal (french)

• Experts recommended
• A sea-level canal (like Suez)
• Reducing TL from 12 to 8 years
• Reducing cost from 240M to 169M
• Reducing the contingency from 25 to 10
  (ignored cost of capital, cost of purchasing
  Panamanian railroad, administrative costs)
• Estimators doubled the anticipated excavation
  volume by 100 (while doing the cost reduction)

189
De Lesseps goes to Panama

• Spent 1 week there
• Reduced the cost estimate to 132M
• Discounted the deadly climate as an invention of
  adversaries

190
The Result

• 20,000 Frenchmen died
• Spent 287M for little work
• Estimates were based on what they could SELL to
  the investors, not the actual cost
• Philosophy get her started and well figure
  out something later
• Big Dig!

191
WBS Structures the Project Network