AUBER Fall Conference

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AUBER Fall Conference Missoula, Montana ROLE OF
AUBER UNITS IN ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT
October 9, 2005
Dr. Lee A. Reynis, Director
University of New Mexico Bureau of Business and
Economic Research 1920 Lomas NE Albuquerque, NM
87131 [phone]
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• PROVISION OF RELIABLE AND
• TIMELY DEMOGRAPHIC AND
• ECONOMIC INFORMATION

• UNM BBER Data Bank
• Population Estimates and Projections
• Economic Forecasting

UNM Bureau of Business and Economic Research
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BBER DATA BANK
Data Bank Collection and ArchiveA Content-Rich
Database

• NM economic, demographic and social subjects
• Current, historical and projected data
• Metadata and studies
• Multimedia (Hard copy, CDs, Internet, PC
  databases, maps)
• Varied, providing a one-stop site

UNM Bureau of Business and Economic Research
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Data Bank ExpertiseWell-Rounded and In-Depth

• Where to find the data
• Provide from the Data Bank, or refer to
  libraries, agencies
• or the Internet
• How to access, use and combine data
• - Navigating web sites or contacting agencies
• - Seek the best data for the problem
• - Find all the pieces for a complete picture
• What the data mean
• Definitions, technical nuances, details and
  how to distill
• the information

UNM Bureau of Business and Economic Research
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The Data Bank A Public Service Unit Covering
All Bases

• Individual Requests 1,373 in FY 04
• Users include government, business,
  non-profit, university
• Conferences, Workshops, Trainings
• BBER Web Site -- 28,600 hits in FY 04
• The New Mexico Business newsletter
• Contractual Services
• - Databases for local newspapers, other
  publications
• Research and Public Service Programs
• - Census Dissemination and Demographic
  Analysis
• - Resource Geographic Information Systems

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POPULATION ESTIMATES PROJECTIONS
UNM Bureau of Business and Economic Research
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BBER has gone after funding to launch a
population estimates program because

• Accurate intercensal estimates are crucial.
• - These estimates are used in federal
  funding allocations
• - Intercensal estimates for different
  geographic areas are used as
• denominators for vital rates and per capita
  time series, as survey
• controls, for planning purposes, in siting
  facilities, in monitoring
• recent demographic changes
• Demonstrated inaccuracy of the Census Bureaus
  
• intercensal population estimates
• - The Census Bureaus 1999 NM estimate was
  80,000 persons
• short of the Census 2000 count.
• - BBERs 1997 projection for the year 2000
  was within 2,000
• persons of the count.
• - 2001 Census estimate shows growth of only
  9,200 from July 1,
• 2000, yet natural increase alone was
  13,200.

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Now serious concerns about US Census Bureaus
population projections
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NM business community worried about the message
the latest US Census Bureau projections send
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FOR-UNM ECONOMIC FORECASTING SERVICE

• Produces quarterly long-term (5 year) forecasts
  of New Mexico and
• the NM MSA economies
• Detailed forecasts of income, employment by
  NAICS sector,
• construction activity, etc. -- provided to
  State finance agencies and
• subscribers to our forecasting service.
• Forecast also disseminated through publication,
  FOR-UNM Bulletin,
• through articles in New Mexico Business
  Current Economic Report,
• and through press releases and interviews with
  reporters.
• BBER staff give numerous talks on economy to
  various business groups
• BBER is reviving our annual economic outlook
  conference, partnering
• with Chamber of Commerce and major local
  businesses

UNM Bureau of Business and Economic Research
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2. CONTRACT RESEARCH PROJECTS

• Economic and Fiscal Impact Analyses
• Leakage and other research for the Main Street
  
• Program
• Workforce Development Community Assessments
• Studies on future demand for labor and labor
  force
• requirements in different industries
• Special Studies
• Industry clusters
• Arts cultural industries
• New Mexico First on the federal presence

UNM Bureau of Business and Economic Research
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ECONOMIC FISCAL IMPACT MODELS
Development of models to be used by governments
in evaluating Industrial Revenue Bond and other
business proposals requesting incentives
Study for NM Local Government Division on the
Gross Receipts Tax Impacts of
Different Land Uses Fiscal Impact
Models for City of Albuquerque Industrial
Revenue Bond and Local Economic Development
Act Proposals
UNM Bureau of Business and Economic Research
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ECONOMIC FISCAL IMPACT ANALYSES
Studies for particular proposed industry
projects IRB for La Posada Hotel in downtown
Albuquerque Mustang Energy coal-fired
generating facility Project Orion (airplane
manufacturing) State proposed solar
concentrator Intel (for IRB)
UNM Bureau of Business and Economic Research
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MAINSTREET PROGRAM STUDIES
Studies in support of community economic
development efforts in communities across the
state Mainstreet and leakage study for Grants,
NM Mainstreet leakage study with research on
real estate prices for Farmington,
NM Similar studies to be done for Gallop, Chama
and three other communities in New Mexico
UNM Bureau of Business and Economic Research
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WORKFORCE DEVELOPMENT STUDIES
Community assessments looking at the local
economy, the local workforce, the skill and other
labor force requirements of local employers, the
adequacy of schools/training programs and
employee support services. Northern New
Mexico Local Workforce Development Board,
Context for Local Workforce Development New
Mexico Trains, on Grants and Las Vegas,
NM Community Assessment for Raton, NM
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STUDIES ON LABOR DEMAND AND SKILL REQUIREMENTS
IN DIFFERENT INDUSTRIES
These studies were all requested by schools
trying to anticipate and meet the training needs
of industry Albuquerque Technical and
Vocational Institute, Needs Analysis for the
Establishment of Future Programs for the Life
Sciences Industries Albuquerque TVI,
Assessment of the Micro-Electro-Mechanical
Systems (MEMS) Industry in Albuquerque UNM
Valencia Branch, Survey of Valencia County
Employers Regarding Worker Skill Requirements
UNM Bureau of Business and Economic Research
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SPECIAL STUDIES
INDUSTRY CLUSTER ANALYSES
Next Generation Economy, Industrial Cluster
Databases Project Albuquerque TVI studies on
life sciences and MEMS industries
UNM Bureau of Business and Economic Research
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ARTS CULTURAL INDUSTRIES AND ECONOMIC
DEVELOPMENT
Quantitative analysis of the economic and fiscal
impacts of the arts and cultural Industries on a
region and qualitative analysis of links among
the arts and cultural industries and between
them and other sectors of the economy
(Florida) Arts and Cultural Industries in Santa
Fe Arts and Cultural Industries in Albuquerque
UNM Bureau of Business and Economic Research
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NEW MEXICO FIRST TOWN HALL
Preparation of background document and other
materials for the New Mexico First Town Hall on
Managing the Federal Presence in New Mexico