Critical Thinking for Strategic Leaders

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Critical Thinking for Strategic Leaders
Presentation for AWC Department of Distance
Education
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Critical Thinking
Our military education programs teach our
leaders critical thinking skills in how to
think versus what to think. CSA General
Peter Schoomaker Secretary of the Army
Francis Harvey in Statement to Congress 6
Feb 2005
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Critical Thinking
Our military education programs teach our
leaders critical thinking skills in how to
think versus what to think. CSA General
Peter Schoomaker Secretary of the Army
Francis Harvey in Statement to Congress 6
Feb 2005 Most Army schools open with the
standard bromide We are not going to teach you
what to think.we are going to teach you how to
think. They rarely do. BG Dave Fastabend
and Robert Simpson in Adapt or Die The
Imperative for a Culture of Innovation in the
U.S. Army, Feb 2004
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Vital Senior Leader Skill

• CT equips leader to cut through distractions and
  minimize errors
• CT difficult to master and requires
• Perseverance
• Self awareness
• Practice
• Empathy towards others views

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Critical Thinking Defined

• the use of those cognitive skills or strategies
  that increase the probability of a desirable
  outcome. Thinking that is purposeful, reasoned
  and goal directed.
• deliberate, conscious, and appropriate
  application of reflective skepticism.

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Thinking on Autopilot

• Periods of reduced mental focus
• Positive examples
• Negative examples

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A Critical Thinking Model
NO
REQUIRES CRITICAL THINKING?
MAKE DECISION/CLARIFY POSITION/USE JUDGMENT
Stimulus requiring judgment
YES
Egocentric Tendencies
CLARIFY CONCERN
EVALUATE INFORMATION
IMPLICATIONS
Argument Analysis
Impact of Biases and Traps
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Clarify Concern

• How is the issue defined and what are its
  subcomponents?
• Am I addressing the root cause?
• How is the problem framed?
• Framed in a way that suggests what the correct
  response should be?
• What are the complexities?

Lee to Davis and to my mind, it resolved itself
into a choice of one two things either to retire
to Richmond and stand a siege, which must
ultimately have ended in surrender, or to invade
Pennsylvania. Current Frame Stay the course
or cut and run
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Points of View

• From what vantage point do I view this issue?
• What is the point of view of the person making
  the argument?
• What is the foundation of their position?
• What are other relevant/opposing points of view?
• What is the impact of egocentric tendencies on my
  point of view and on others?

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Egocentrism

• What is it?
• Why do we do it?
• Whats the remedy?
• Egocentric dispositions
• Memory
• Myopia
• Righteousness
• Blindness
• Differences between egocentrism and
  ethnocentrism?
• Relationship to cultural awareness?

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A Critical Thinking Model
NO
REQUIRES CRITICAL THINKING?
MAKE DECISION/CLARIFY POSITION/USE JUDGMENT
Stimulus requiring judgment
YES
Egocentric Tendencies
CLARIFY CONCERN
EVALUATE INFORMATION
IMPLICATIONS
Argument Analysis
Impact of Biases and Traps
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Assumptions

• Are my assumptions clear to me?
• Can I fully justify what I am taking for granted?
• What are the assumptions of the person presenting
  the information?
• Are they valid?
• Assumptions effect
• Cause-effect relationships
• Probable consequences
• Data I pay attention to and ignore

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Inferences

• All communication requires the receiver to fill
  in gaps between given bits of information to
  understand the intended meaning. An inference is
  a mental leap.
• Do my conclusions logically follow from the
  evidence?
• Is my inference based on a faulty assumption?
• What alternative inferences flow from the
  information and data?

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Critical Thinking
INFERENCES AND ASSUMPTIONS
Conscious Level of Thinking
STIMULUS/ INFORMATION
INFERENCE
ASSUMPTIONS
Unconscious Level of Thinking
Courtesy of Paul and Elder
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Assumption/Inference Exercise
Observation Inference Underlying
Assumption
- At a power point briefing at the Pentagon you
see several misspelled words on the presenters
slides
- Youre in Ramadi and a young male approaches
you with his hands behind his back
- During a meeting you observe your boss
periodically winking and smirking towards Fred
each time Sally attempts to make a point
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Evaluate Information
NO
REQUIRES CRITICAL THINKING?
MAKE DECISION/CLARIFY POSITION/USE JUDGMENT
Stimulus requiring judgment
YES
Egocentric Tendencies
CLARIFY CONCERN
EVALUATE INFORMATION
IMPLICATIONS
Argument Analysis
Impact of Biases and Traps
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Logical Fallacies

• Argument against person
• False Dichotomy
• Appeal to unqualified authority
• False Cause
• Appeal to Fear
• Appeal to the Masses
• Slippery Slope
• Weak Analogy
• Red Herring

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Heuristics, Biases and Traps

• Availability Heuristics
• Representativeness
• Sample Size
• Regression to the Mean
• Anchoring and Adjustment
• Insufficient Anchor Adjustment
• Overconfidence

• Confirmation Trap
• Fundamental Attribution Error
• Self-serving Bias

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Implications

• What are the short-term consequences of
• accepting the inferences initially posited
• accepting the opposing perspective
• accepting the perspective developed through
  critical thinking?
• What are the long-term consequences?
• What are other 2nd and 3rd order effects?