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Business intelligence in a changing world

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Business intelligence in a changing world. Robin Bew, Chief Economist ... debt levels worryingly high. Growth performance reasonable. but cyclical divergence? ... – PowerPoint PPT presentation

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Title: Business intelligence in a changing world


1
Business intelligence in a changing
world Robin Bew, Chief Economist Special
Libraries Association Conference, June 7th, 2005
2
Session roadmap
  • How is the world changing?
  • short term issues, long term challenges
  • How are businesses responding?
  • winning in a world of change
  • What does this mean for business intelligence?
  • staying relevant as business needs evolve

3
How is the world changing?
4
Short-term economic outlook
5
Key points for 2005-06
  • Exceptional times dont last
  • 2004 the best year for quarter of a century
  • but will not be repeated
  • Struggle between cash and debt
  • interest rates rising, but still low
  • debt levels worryingly high
  • Growth performance reasonable
  • but cyclical divergence?
  • Refocusing on domestic opportunities
  • Downside risks remain significant

6
US personal debt
7
US outlook
  • Problems are in the personal sector
  • corporate sector in reasonable shape
  • What will stop the consumer?
  • debt service payments
  • wealth
  • housing, equity valuations
  • Rising debt burden is unsustainable
  • saving will stabilise (or rise)
  • Gradual softening of economic growth

8
Japan - blowing hot and cold
GDP growth,
  • The cold
  • In and out of recession
  • Export led
  • Capex consumption follow
  • Strong yen
  • Fiscal mess
  • Demographics
  • The hot
  • Monetary policy
  • Banking sector
  • Domestic restructuring
  • Inflation outlook

Y on Y
9
Euro zone
  • Poor acceleration, good brakes
  • Export main growth driver
  • Only growth driver in Germany Italy
  • Domestic demand revival in France, smaller
    markets
  • Growth under threat in 2005 and 2006
  • US, Asian slowdown
  • Strong euro
  • Little policy stimulus
  • Structural rigidities
  • Credit data
  • The meaning of no

10
Emerging market focus
  • Asia
  • the rise of domestic demand, currency pressures
  • East Europe the CIS
  • productivity, trade, oil
  • the significance of tax rate differentials
  • Latin America
  • policy orthodoxy, but still vulnerable
  • Middle East
  • awash with liquidity, but security issues
  • Africa
  • institutional failure in the second tier countries

11
China and India
  • China surging ahead
  • oversupply in many sectors
  • Risks to leaving investment unchecked
  • Bad debts, margin squeeze, corporate failure
  • short-term outlook, also long-term hangover
  • India has slowed
  • but no need for despondency
  • Sector successes
  • services, manufacturing
  • But Chinese style performance unlikely

12
Short-term worries
13
Global pressure points
  • The US dollar
  • America choking on its own debt
  • Liquidity withdrawal
  • risk assets vulnerable
  • China slowdown
  • slowing, slowing, gone?
  • Oil prices
  • any relief?
  • Physical security

14
The changing shape of the global economy
15
Changing global demand
US trn
GDP at mkt exchange rates
16
Dynamic markets
Real output, 2005100 E7 China, Brazil, Korea,
India, Russia, Mexico, Taiwan
17
US dominance threatened?
US trn
GDP at PPP conversion rates
18
The changing growth league
2000-09
2020-29
Annual average real GDP growth,
19
How are businesses responding?
20
Changing business
  • Business 2010
  • EIU study in conjunction with SAP
  • Survey of 4,000 executives and senior managers
  • Key findings
  • Changing strategic priorities
  • Changing business models
  • Innovating to stay ahead
  • Improving the customer experience
  • Changing role of IT

21
Changing strategic priorities
  • Specialisation to counter threats
  • industry giants emerging mkt start-ups
  • Speed and flexibility
  • becoming core competencies
  • People over technology
  • finding and keeping the best
  • Corporate governance
  • global regulatory reach, so global application
  • Partnership
  • adding value via suppliers

22
Changing business models
  • Need to be adaptable
  • more important than product innovation
  • cope with changes in the marketplace
  • often more important than product development
  • Technology reinventing the business
  • internal processes
  • greatest efficiency gains
  • e-business
  • demand driven

23
Innovating to stay ahead
  • Understanding the customer need
  • the greatest challenge
  • more important than time to market, predicting
    future trends
  • Using your data more efficiently
  • internal systems, mobile technology
  • Maintaining intellectual capital
  • preventing brain-drain
  • building a knowledge base

24
The customer experience
  • Quality
  • of product and delivery
  • Customisation
  • one size fits all will no longer suffice
  • Availability
  • opening the company to the customer
  • on line access to products, information

25
Changing role of IT
  • IT as a competitive tool
  • not just a way to cut costs
  • IT as a tool of the people
  • technology useless without skilled staff
  • What should IT allow companies to do?
  • get the right information at the right time
  • access to information anywhere
  • instant alerts as things go wrong

26
What does this mean for business intelligence?
27
A more demanding market
  • What does the EIU see?
  • granularity
  • increased demand for emerging and pre-emerging
    market information
  • demand for industry information
  • demand for risk analysis
  • understanding the customer need
  • need for customisation
  • flexible delivery mechanisms
  • demand for ever higher quality
  • relevance, accuracy and speed

28
How has the EIU responded?
  • Increased our country coverage
  • 201 markets, 150 with numerical forecasts
  • Built a strategic industry capability
  • integrated with our macroeconomic view
  • Increased on focus on risk
  • launched an operational risk service
  • upgrading our financial risk service
  • Hugely boosted our custom business
  • market studies, political reviews, industry
    benchmarking, modelling and forecasting

29
Flexible delivery mechanisms
30
Maintain our tradition of quality
  • 130 in-house country analysts
  • 600 contributing analysts based in-country
  • quantitative and qualitative approach
  • reliable sources of local data in 201 countries
  • sensitivity to geopolitical dynamics
  • independent view
  • ongoing assessment of global trends and events
  • almost 60 years of experience

31
Quality centered methodology
  • Ensure quality
  • Review of analysis by country experts
  • Automated checks
  • Final approval by regional heads
  • Qualitative and quantitative approach
  • Apply global assumptions
  • Use a variety of models
  • Provide qualitative insight
  • Gather dependable information
  • Use in-country analysts
  • Select most timely, reliable data
  • Conduct primary research

32
What does all this mean for you?
  • Your reality
  • more demanding internal clients
  • evolving offering from your suppliers
  • The challenges (as we see them)
  • match information to the need
  • ever greater understanding of your clients needs
  • ever greater understanding of the strengths and
    weaknesses of your sources
  • The result
  • a significant source of value to your business

33
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