The Taiwan China Question

1
The Taiwan China Question

• Juha Tähkämaa, M. Soc. Sc.
• University of Turku
• AsiaNet 2005

2
The Taiwan China Question

•  ORIGINS CURRENT SITUATION
•  CURRENT ARGUMENTATION OF THE PRC AND ROC
•  US POSITION ON THE TAIWAN ISSUE
•  FUTURE PROSPECTS
• TAIWAN IS NOT A STATE OR COUNTRY IT HAS NO
  PRESIDENT, PARLIAMENT OR GOVERNMENT

3
Origins of the Taiwan Question

• Migration from southern China from the 17th
  century on
• ? the Taiwanese
• Under Chinese jurisdiction from 1684
• Occupied by the Japanese 1895
• Returned to China 1945, at the time Republic of
  China
• Chinese Civil war
• ?The Republic of China defeated and withdrew to
  Taiwan in 1949

4
The Birth of Two Chinas

• The Republic of China (on Taiwan) ? The Peoples
  Republic of China (in mainland)
• Both claimed to be the sole legal government of
  China and rule the same area (mainland Taiwan
  island)
• Both agree (even today) that Taiwan is a part of
  China ?the question is of which China
• Neither conceded defeat in the Civil war

5
Two Chinas

• The PRC (Peoples Republic of China
• The ROC (Republic of China)

6
The Taiwan Question and the US

• The US had supported the ROC in mainland for
  years
• Support cut-off in the aftermath of WWII because
  of ROCs inefficiency and corruption the attack
  on the communist party
• After 1949 the US considered the ROC a lost cause
• Korean War in 1950 changed everything ? The ROC
  became an indispensable ally
• Defense Treaty in 1954
• The US diplomatically recognised the ROC

7
The ROC Government in Taiwan

• Relationship to the Taiwanese strained
• Marshall Law imposed on the island in 1949 -gt
  lasted until 1987
• Civil rights of the Taiwanese severely limited
• No Taiwanese political opposition allowed to
  emerge
• Official policy was to retake mainland
• The ROC government ruled with the political
  support of the US government until 1979
• After this the US started to pressure the ROC
  government to democratizise its political system

8
The PRC Arguments on the Taiwan Question

• Taiwan is a part of China ? historical reasons
• There is but one China and that is the PRC ? the
  ROC ceased to exist in 1949
• The Taiwan Question is an internal affair ? as
  Taiwan belongs to China, its fate is an internal
  affair

9
Key PRC Documents of Taiwan Policy

• The PRC Constitution (1982)
• Taiwan is part of the sacred territory of
  the People's Republic of China. It is the lofty
  duty of the entire Chinese people, including our
  compatriots in Taiwan, to accomplish the great
  task of reunifying the motherland

10
Key PRC Documents of Taiwan Policy

• Taiwan White Paper 1993 (Taiwan Affairs Office,
  latest document)
• The Taiwan question is an internal question of
  China
• The Taiwan question is largely caused by the
  intervention of foreign powers dating from the
  Opium Wars and the Unequal treaties of the
  1920s, and later the US in the 1950s.
• Taiwan has been a part of China from 17th century
  onwards
• Taiwan has been given back to China after the
  Second World War
• The Cairo Declaration of 1943 clearly states that
  Taiwan shall be returned to China (NB!)
• Taiwan and China shall be reunited according to
  the idea of peaceful reunification and under
  the One Country, Two Systems policy.

11
Key PRC Documents of Taiwan Policy

• The One China Principle and Taiwan Issue 2000
• a response to the growing Taiwanese independence
  movement and Taiwanese consciousness on the
  island.
• China (PRC) won the civil war over the ROC and
  replaced the ROC as the sole legitimate
  government of China and the sole representative
  of China in the international arena. Therefore
  the PRC government exercises sovereignty also
  over Taiwan, which was returned to China after
  the Second World War.

12
PRC Starting Point

• The ROC government is not a legitimate government
  anymore and has not been since 1949, when the PRC
  was established.
• The ROC has no right to govern over Taiwan and
  should admit defeat and concede Taiwan to China.
• This would mean the end of the ROC government as
  it exists now, and the ultimate resolution of the
  Chinese Civil War and the Taiwan Question.

13
PRC Unification Policy

• One Country, Two Systems
• Taiwan can maintain its capitalistic economic
  system
• Taiwan can have its own currency
• Taiwan can have its own military
• Taiwan can have its own representative offices
  abroad
• Taiwan can maintain its own judical system
• All matter of foreign and defence policy will be
  decided in the central government of China
• Taiwan can have its representative in the central
  government

14
PRC Unification Policy

• BUT Taiwan would become a part of the PRC with a
  similar status than Hong Kong, more or less
• Peaceful reunification a key issue ? China
  wants it to happen without the use of force
• However, the PRC reserves an option to use force
  if Taiwan declares independence
• The Taiwanese oppose One Country, Two Systems and
  demand that China gives up the threat to use
  force ? China refuses to do either

15
The ROCs Political Development and Unification
Policy I

• Between 1950s and 1970s a hostile policy
  towards the PRC
• The goal was to retake mainland and overthrow the
  communist government
• Three Nos policy no contacts, no negotiations,
  no compromise (no travel, mail, telephone,
  shipping or flights to mainland China)
• The dream of retaking mainland became unrealistic
  latest in the 1970s
• In 1971 ROC lost its seat in the UN and in 1979
  the US cut its diplomatic ties to ROC and
  recognised the PRC ? The end of the ROCs
  international status

16
The ROCs Political Development and Unification
Policy II

• The US pressured the ROC to democratize its
  political system in Taiwan
• Chiand Ching-kuo started to gradually democratize
  Taiwan, but no change in China policy (died 1987)
• 1986 DPP 1988 Lee Teng-hui ? full democratization
  
• 1992 Parliament elections ? more Taiwanese in
  the leading positions of the ROC government in
  Taiwan (Pres. Lee!)
• Changes in China policy and a more Taiwanese
  identity

17
The ROCs Political Development and Unification
Policy III

• Guidelines for National Unification 1991
• The goal is a free, democratic and equitably
  prosperous China
• Acknowledges the One China principle and states
  that Taiwan is a part of the Chinese territory
• Short term goal both sides acknowledge each
  other as political entities and renounce the use
  of force
• Mid-term goal establishment of direct transport
  communication lines
• Phase three unification
• Ultimate goal unification and a new constitution
  for a democratic China

18
The ROCs Political Development and Unification
Policy IV

• Critics make unification impossible and ensure
  that Taiwan and China will never unify
• Already the shot term goal is practically
  unreachable
• LTH heavily criticized from PRC
• Chen Shui-bian president in 2000
• Even more pro-Taiwan in his policies than Lee
• Has constantly irritated the PRC with his
  statements
• Taiwan a sovereign nation or sovereign
  country
• Has even managed to anger President Bush

19
Political Parties in Taiwan and Their China
Policy I

• Democratization has lead to the mushrooming of
  political parties
• Four major parties garner 90 of votes
• The KMT
• Founded the ROC in 1912
• Withdrew to Taiwan in 1949
• The only party in the ROC government and
  parliament in Taiwan until 1992
• Initial policies towards PRC hostile
• Change in the 1990s ? currently considered to be
  moderately pro-China
• Does not exclude unification
• Lien Chan 2004 unification not a goal
• Internally divided on the issue

20
Political Parties in Taiwan and Their China
Policy II

• The DPP (Democratic Progressive Party)
• Founded in 1986
• The first opposition party in Taiwan
• Does not support unification with China
• Stand on the independence issue shifting
  occasionally favors openly, occasionally not
• In general and internationally regarded as a
  pro-independence party

21
Political Parties in Taiwan and Their China
Policy III

• The PFP (People First Party)
• A spin-off from the KMT established in 2000
• Chairman James Soong ambiguous on China policy
• Basically moderate and conciliatory towards China
• Does not support Taiwan independence
• Stand on One China wavering
• Will perhaps merge with the KMT?

22
Political Parties in Taiwan and Their China
Policy IV

• The TSU (Taiwan Solidarity Union)
• Founded by former President and KMT chairman Lee
  Teng-hui
• The most radical pro-independence party
• Aims to create the Republic of Taiwan
• Most voters in Southern Taiwan
• A buffer-party for the DPP?
• Support diminished in the 2004 parliamentary
  elections

23
Political Parties in Taiwan and Their China
Policy V

• General remarks
• Open debate about independence vs. unification
  has increased in Taiwan since the 1990s
• Still most parties try to remain ambiguous on the
  issue in order not to alienate voters
• Voters are cautious and favor status quo
• Debate about independence has increased, but not
  perhaps support

24
The US Position on the Taiwan Question I

• The US role on the Taiwan question crucial ? the
  Defense pact in the 1950s military troops on
  the island
• Severing of diplomatic ties in 1979
• The Shanghai communiqué w/PRC in 1972
• The US states that there is but one China
• Taiwan is a part of China
• Promises to withdraw its troops from Taiwan

25
The US Position on the Taiwan Question II

• Joint communiqué of 1978 w/PRC
• Establishment of diplomatic ties
• The US acknowledges the government of the PRC as
  the sole legal government of China
• The people of the US maintain cultural,
  commercial, and other unofficial relations with
  the people of Taiwan
• The US acknowledges the Chinese position that
  there is but one China and Taiwan is a part of
  China

26
The US Position on the Taiwan Question III

• Taiwan Relations Act 1978
• The US will make available to Taiwan such defense
  articles and defense services.to enable Taiwan
  to maintain a sufficient self-defense capability
• Not an international agreement, just a domestic
  US act

27
The US Position on the Taiwan Question IV

• The basic US position since 1979 has been that
  the Taiwan question should be resolved by
  peaceful methods
• Neither side should take unilateral actions
• Does not state that the Taiwan issue is a
  domestic issue, as the PRC constantly states
• George W. Bush very favorable towards Taiwan
• 2001 Whatever it takes comment ? caused
  international alarm
• 2003 statement with Wen Jiabao strong opposition
  to President Chens proposed referendum

28
Recent Developments Between China and Taiwan

• Some positive developments have taken place
  during the past 15 years
• No official contacts still exist
• Travel between China and Taiwan allowed since the
  end of the 1980s
• Currently 1 million Taiwanese live in China and
  25 million trips are made from Taiwan to China ?
  only 800,000 from China to Taiwan
• Economic integration immense
• More than USD 100 billion invested from Taiwan to
  China?
• Taiwanese enterprises account for most of China's
  IT-exports

29
Recent Developments Between China and Taiwan II

• Political hostilities remain
• No direct flights
• Specialized Shipping Zones in Taiwan (Kaohsiung
  harbor)
• Direct charter flights during the Chinese New
  Year 2004 2005
• Taiwanese business leaders pressure the
  government to open up direct links

30
Unification or Independence?

• More than 80 of Taiwanese favor status quo
  (www.mac.gov.tw)
• About 10 favor immediate unification or
  independence
• More than 80 do not support One Country, Two
  Systems policy
• Chen Shui-bian desinification
• The ROC state apparently has no future
• If Taiwan declares independence, the PRC will
  attack
• Perhaps economic integration will push China and
  Taiwan together
• The PRC, ROC and US agree that Taiwan belongs to
  China, but to which China?
• The Taiwan independence movement questions this
  viewpoint .