Coping With Demographic Change

1
Chapter 12

• Coping With Demographic Change

2
Chapter Outline

• Policies Designed To Influence The Transitions
• World Population Conferences As Policy Tools
• Population Policy In The Twenty-first Century
  Managing The Transitions

3
Chapter Outline

• What Is The Population Policy Of The United
  States?
• What Lies Ahead?

4
Coping

• Three-stage process
• Understanding the fact that unfolding events
  represent a potential (or real) problem.
• Establishing the motivation to do something about
  the problem.
• Generating the means to do something about it.

5
Formulating a Population Policy
6
World Population Conferences

• 1974 - produced a World Population Plan of
  Action.
• 1984 - The U.S. imposed a global gag rule with
  respect to use of funds for anything having to do
  with abortion.
• 1994 produced a Programme of Action emphasizing
  the importance of womens social and reproductive
  rights.

7
Programme of Action

• Proposed that the mortality transition be managed
  by
• lowering infant, child, and maternal mortality
• bringing the AIDS pandemic under control
• Without AIDS, it is projected that the world
  would have half a billion more people by
  mid-century.

8
Lifeboat Ethic

• Based the premise that a lifeboat holds only so
  many people and any more than that will cause the
  whole boat to sink.
• Withholding food and medical supplies could raise
  death rates in less-developed nations and provide
  a longer voyage for wealthier nations already
  riding in the lifeboat.

9
Triage

• Sending aid to countries that show promise of
  being able to bring their rates of population
  growth under control.
• Refers to an army practice of sorting the wounded
  into three groups
• Those who can survive without immediate
  treatment.
• Those who will survive if they are treated
  without delay.
• Those who will die regardless.

10
The World With and Without AIDS

• Between 2000 and 2050 AIDS will be responsible
  for the deaths of 278 million more people than
  would have otherwise died.
• Were it not for AIDS, the projected population in
  the year 2050 would actually be half a billion
  more people.

11
Factors That Influence the Decline of Fertility

• Educating women.
• Providing women with access to the paid labor
  force.
• Legalizing the equality in status of males and
  females.

12
Factors That Influence the Decline of Fertility

• Legalizing abortion and/or making contraceptives
  freely available.
• Raising the standard of living, while making
  housing and major consumer items difficult to
  obtain.

13
Secrets of Successful Family Programs

• Easy accessibility of services
• Community-based approach increases continuation
  rates.
• High-quality services increase the prevalence
  rate.
• A greater variety of methods increases the
  prevalence rate.

14
Secrets of Successful Family Programs

• Mass-media messages increase the prevalence rate.
• Informal discussions by users with nonusers
  increases the prevalence rate.

15
Perverse Laws Of International Migration

• Immigration is a lot easier to start than it is
  to stop.
• Actions taken to restrict immigration often have
  the opposite effect.
• The fundamental causes of immigration may be
  outside the control of policy makers.

16
Perverse Laws Of International Migration

• Immigrants understand immigration better than
  politicians and academicians.
• Because they understand immigration better than
  policy makers, immigrants are often able to
  circumvent policies aimed at stopping them.

17
Age Structure of Different World Regions in 2025,
According to United Nations MediumVariant
Population Projections
18
Age Structure of Different World Regions in 2025,
According to United Nations MediumVariant
Population Projections
19
Age Structure of Different World Regions in 2025,
According to United Nations MediumVariant
Population Projections
20
Age Structure of Different World Regions in 2025,
According to United Nations MediumVariant
Population Projections
21
Changing Sizes of Generational Cohorts in Chile
in Comparison to Political Events, 19502000