ACTA

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www..iaass.org
IAASS Space Safety Academy
Launch Flight Safety Analysis

10-12 May 2007 Chicago, Illinois,
USA

Presented by ACTA 2790 SKYPARK DR.SUITE
310Torrance, CA

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Course Description 1/2

• Title of Training Launch Flight Safety Analysis
• Targeted Audience Students should be familiar
  with matrix and vector operations and have a
  background in physics or mechanical engineering
  equivalent to a BS.
• History of CourseThe course is based on
  material originally presented to top level
  organizations such as
• Korean Aerospace Research Institute (KARI)
• U.S. FAA Associate Administrator for Space
  Transportation (FAA/AST)
• U.S. Air Force Eastern and Western Ranges
• U.S. Navy Pacific Missile Range Facility and
  Naval Air Warfare Center
• Length of Course Three days.

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Why, What, How Who
Why You Need to Know this -To design for launch
safety -To understand the significance and
procedures of the range safety process -To
identify resources for implementing launch
safety -To get safety certification to launch

• What you will Learn
• -Basic Risk Concepts
• Basic Mathematical and Statistical Principles
• Basic Computation and Presentation of Risk
• Approaches to Risk Analysis Modeling
• Evaluating Risk
• General Launch Risk Analysis Procedure
• -Impact Point Prediction and Impact Dispersions
• -Impact Dispersions of Normal and
• Malfunctioning Vehicles
• -Aircraft Probability of Impact
• -Impact Probabilities for Planned
• Events--Planned Jettisons
• -Introduction to Debris List Development
• -Failure Rate and Failure Mode Development
• -Introduction to Exposure and Vulnerability
• -Acceptable Risk

• Who leads You Through the Maze
• Leading instructors with long experience in range
  safetyand safety risk management

How You Will Learn It -Verbal instruction using
Power Point -Experts Lectures -Videos and
Photographs -Case studies -Group exercises
problem solving
What You will Take Away -The course binder with
all presentations -A selected set of
documents -Certificate of Course Completion
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Course Outline 1/5

• 1) Introduction
• 2) Overview of Range Safety
• a) Phases of flight
• b) Tracking Requirements Overview
• i) Radar
• ii) GPS/IMU
• c) Range Safety System Requirements Overview
• d) Fundamentals of trajectory analysis
• e) Range Safety Planning
• i) Launch availability winds
• ii) Trajectory shaping
• iii) Population centers
• (1) Evaluate
• (2) Control access
• (3) Evacuate
• f) Locating a launch
• g) Launch commit considerations
• i) Winds
• ii) Managing airspace and roads

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Course Outline 2/5

• 4) Basic Mathematical and Statistical Principles
• a) Mean vectors and covariance matrices
• b) Probability distributions
• 5) Basic Computation and Presentation of Risk
• a) Measures of risk (risk metrics)
• i) Individual risk
• ii) Collective risk
• iii) Catastrophic risk
• iv) Risk to assets
• b) Risk Dimensions
• i) Injury Severity
• (1) Fatality
• (2) Casualty
• ii) Damage Severity
• (1) Considerations
• (a) High value assets
• (2) Go/No-Go
• (a) Impact by hazardous debris
• 6) Approaches to Risk Analysis Modeling

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Course Outline 3/5

• 7) Evaluating Risk
• a) Tumble Corridor governing equations
• b) Risks from Planned Jettisons governing
  equations
• 8) General Launch Risk Analysis Procedure
• a) Hazard Identification
• b) Failure probabilities and missile response
• c) Debris generating events
• i) Malfunctions
• (1) Self-destruct
• (2) Aerodynamic breakup
• (3) Effect of flight termination actions
• (a) Flight termination criteria
• (b) System time delays (data latency, decision
  times, time to effect termination)
• ii) Planned events--Jettisoned hardware /stages
• d) Debris lists
• e) Debris propagation
• f) Impact probability calculations
• g) Compute risk measures
• i) Individual risk

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Course Outline 4/5

• 9) Impact Point Prediction and Impact Dispersions
• a) Propagators
• b) Debris Dispersions
• 10) Impact Dispersions of Normal and
  Malfunctioning Vehicles
• a) Normal Vehicles --Typical GP dispersions
• b) Malfunctions
• i) Off course malfunctions
• ii) On course malfunctions
• iii) Effect on impact distributions
• 11) Aircraft Probability of Impact
• 12) Impact Probabilities for Planned
  Events--Planned Jettisons
• 13) Introduction to Debris List Development
• a) Malfunction debris
• i) Semi-analytic
• ii) Empirical
• iii) Piece parts lists

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Course Outline 5/5

• 14) Failure Rate and Failure Mode Development
• a) Failure Probabilities
• i) Databases
• (1) Boosters
• (a) Challenges of classification and
  compartmentalization
• (b) What is available
• b) Allocation of failure probability by failure
  mode and time
• i) Vehicle designer
• ii) Historical data
• 15) Introduction to Exposure and Vulnerability
• a) Exposure
• i) Development of a Population Library
• (1) Population mapping guidelines
• (a) Resolution
• (b) Accuracy
• (c) Completeness
• (d) Data sources
• (e) Sheltering
• b) Vulnerability Overview (People, Buildings,
  Aircraft)

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Instructors

• Name Paul Wilde and Jerold Haber
• Address ACTA, Inc., 2790 Skypark Drive,
  Torrance, CA 90505
• Telephone Number [phone]
• E-mail wilde_at_actainc.com, haber_at_actainc.com,

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Registration

• Course Date 10-12 May 2007
• Time Starting 8.30 hrs, Thursday 10 May ending
  17.30 hrs, Saturday 12 May
• Location Chicago
• Address McCormick Place, 2301 S. Lake Shore
  Drive, Chicago, Illinois 60616
• Registration on-line www.congrex.nl/07a02
• Registration Fee 1650 (before 3 April 2007
  afterwards 1750 )-10 discount for IAASS
  individual members -Registration fee due upon
  registration -Participants number limited to 40
  students (early registration recommended)
• If less than 15 students enroll
  the course will be cancelled
• Contacts ESA Conference Bureau
  e-mail esa.conference.bureau_at_esa.int
  Tel.[phone]
  Fax[phone]

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Instructors Biography
Jerry Haber Course organizer and instructor.
ACTA Operations Manager and Program Manager for
Flight Safety operations for two U.S. Navy Ranges
and Air Force Access to Space Office. Mr. Haber
has over 30 years of experience leading risk
analysis model development efforts and performing
flight safety risk analyses for the full spectrum
of U.S. launch vehicles and missiles.
Specialties risk analysis modeling, human
vulnerability modeling, and risk acceptability
issues. Professional Affiliations Associate
Fellow of the IAASS, Senior Member AIAA, Sigma Xi
(U.S. National Research Honorary), Listed in
Whos Who in Risk Management. He has developed
guidelines for flight safety risk analyses for
U.S. National organizations and been instrumental
in the development of U.S. consensus risk
acceptability standards for launch and reentry
risks. He analyzes the safety and risk mitigation
strategies for a wide variety of launch and
reentry systems. He has developed methodologies
that address the range of needs from screening
analyses to detailed evaluations of complex
systems. He is the author or co-author of
numerous technical papers and reports.
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Instructors Biography

• Dr. Paul Wilde, P.E. Co-organizer of course and
  instructor. Flight Safety Analysis Program
• Manager for FAA/AST. He has 18 years of
  aerospace engineering experience in space
• flight analysis, explosive safety analysis,
  operational support, safety standards
• development, technical evaluations, and
  probabilistic risk assessments. He has
• performed leading roles for multi-organization
  projects in high-profile situations, such as
• The Columbia Accident Investigation Board
  (CAIB) report section on public safety,
• Principal technical representative at the CAIB
  for the foam impact tests,
• Co-chair of the Common Standard Working Group
  (FAA, NASA, and USAF) which
• developed national standards and detailed
  requirements for the safety of space launches.
• Performed the FAA flight safety evaluations for
  the maiden launches of the Atlas V, Delta IV,
  SpaceShipOne, and other innovative space
  flight operations.
• Performed a technical assessment of public risk
  that facilitated the first launch of the Titan
  IVB from Vandenberg AFB under elevated risk
  conditions.
• Development of U.S. consensus risk acceptability
  standards for launch and reentry risks He is a
  Fellow member of IAASS and a member of the IAASS
  Board. He has authored many publications for
  journals and symposia in the US and overseas. Dr.
  Wilde has instructed flight safety analysis
  courses for the FAA/AST and the Air Force Eastern
  Range.