NAME TIER I FORECASTING SUMMER 2003

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NAME TIER I FORECASTING SUMMER 2003

• Prepared by Bob Maddox, Univ of AZ
• With Inputs From
• Pat Holbrook, NWS TUS
• Erik Pytlak, NWS TUS
• Art Douglas, Creighton Univ

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THE PRACTICE FORECAST EXERCISE SUMMER 2003
Art Douglas, Erik Pytlak, and myself were the
fomenters of this practice exercise and I have
excluded the three of us from the following
summations. There were 18 participating
individuals and forecasters at SMN contributing
to the following statistics. Note that there
were no fixed schedules or assignments and
individuals were asked to input forecasts as
their interest and work schedules allowed.
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ORGANIZATION/AFFILIATION OF FORECASTERS NWS
Forecasters 10 SMN
6-10 (individuals not specifically
identified, so that SMN is "counted" as 1
participant) NCEP Centers
4 Private/retired 2 University
students 2
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THE NAME PRACTICE FORECAST EXERCISE 2004 There
was a general NAME Tier 1 forecast discussion
posted each day from July 16 through August 30.
Forecasters providing these discussions were
identified by name. Discussions were provided
by Mike Bodner (NCEP HPC) Art Douglas
(Creighton University) and several SMN
forecasters Kerry Jones (NWS ABQ) Bob Maddox
(University of Arizona) Erik Pytlak (NWS TUS)
Jon Racy (NCEP SPC).
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NAME FORECASTING FEATURES
FF Cold Front (Frente Fro) either
eastward-moving or backdoor - SMN numbered - NONE
2003 WV Westerly short wave trough or cutoff
Associated with the polar westerlies - Peak
vorticity above 700mb - General eastward motion
or stationary - FOC numbered C/IV Cyclone
and/or inverted trough - Westward-moving or
stationary upper level system - Peak vorticity
above 700mb - FOC numbered DIF Pronounced
upper-level (above 300 mb) difluence - Not
numbered GS Gulf of California surge (detected
at either Yuma or Guaymas surface observations) -
24hr surface dewpoint change 10F or more -
Surface dewpoint rises above 72F - Surface
dewpoint remains above 65F for at least 36hrs -
24hr increase in southerly surface winds of 8 kts
(4 m/s) or more - 24hr temp decrease 5F or more -
24hr increase in surface pressure of 3mb or more
- FOC numbered NONE WERE NUMBERED IN 2003
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NAME FORECASTING FEATURES
WT Tropical Wave (Onda Tropical) Low-level
trough line with peak vorticity at or below 700mb
- Generally westward-moving - Numbered by SMN
TC Tropical Cyclone - Includes tropical
depression, tropical storm, and hurricane -
Numbered/Named by TPC TJ Tropical easterly jet
max - Distinct easterly jet at 200mb - Usually
found far south of the subtropical high (central
or southern Mexico) -Speed max 35kts or greater -
Not numbered ITCZ InterTropical Convergence
Zone - Self Explanatory Shown on SMN daily
features chart SC Surface moisture convergence
boundary - Including dry lines and
orographically-induced convergence lines - Not
numbered
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There was a daily (there were 46 potential
forecast days) QPF forecast exercise for 9
different zones within NAME Tier 1. Participants
were assigned a forecaster number and a password
Sign up details were handled by Jose Meitin of
JOSS. Twenty-four individuals signed up with
Jose and were assigned forecaster ID
numbers. Some never made any forecasts and thus
don't show up in the Zone Forecast matrix at the
JOSS web page
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WETTEST DAYS ACROSS TIER I BY ZONE North Zones
(1,2,3,4,5) Cat 3 or 4 South Zones (6,7,8,9)
Cat 4 DAILY AVE PRECIP CAT 3 gt4 to 8mm CAT 4
gt8mm
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FORECASTS FOR WETTEST DAYS ACROSS TIER I
Average Precip Categories Cat 1 lt1 mm, Cat 2 1
to 4 mm, Cat 3 gt4 to 8mm, Cat 4 gt8mm
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NUMBER OF PARTICIPANTS AND TOTAL NUMBER OF
FORECASTS MADE BY ORGANIZATION Organization
Participants Total
forecasts from Organization SMN Mexico City
6-10
28 ABQ - Southern
Region 5
29 NCEP
4
21 PUB - Central Region
2
19 University AZ Students 2

17 TUS - Western Region 1
19 LAS -
Western Region 1
5 PHX - Western
Region 1
13 Vaisala
1
32 Retired
1
42
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NUMBER OF FORECASTS MADE BY INDIVIDUAL
PARTICIPANTS gt/ 40
1 gt/ 30 lt 40
1 gt/ 20 lt30 1 gt/
10 lt20 6 lt 10
10 ONLY A FEW
INDIVIDUALS MADE A MEANINGFUL NUMBER OF PRACTICE
FORECASTS !!!