Renewable Energy in Our Future

1
Renewable Energy in Our Future
ASME Skokie Valley Unit Dale
Gardner Associate Laboratory Director, Renewable
Fuels Vehicle Systems 18 November 2008
2
U.S. Energy Consumption

• Electricity

Transportation Fuel
1,200 GW Total Generation Capacity
Gasoline
140 billion gallons/year
Diesel
60 billion gallons/year
3
Why Are We Worried about Energy ?
4
What About Huge U.S. Coal Reserves?
the Saudi Arabia of Coal . . .
we have
250
years reserves, at current use rate
5
Nuclear and Natural Gas?

• The U.S. has not built a new nuclear power
  electricity generation plant since the 1970s

• We are using 20 Tcf/year and have 1,200 Tcf U.S.
  reserves
• 60 years remaining

6
In the United States we . . .
consume
25
of annual World oil production
7
. . .the U.S. uses as much oil as the next five
highest-consuming nations combined
Compared to other Countries . . .
Annual Consumption
25
7
7
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
Updated July 2005. Source International Energy
Annual 2003 (EIA), Tables 1.2 and 8.1-OGJ.
Canadas reserves include tar sands.
8
U.S. Transportation Petroleum
9
Environment
6m Sea Level Rise
10
Global Warming ?
the hockey stick
11
Easy CO2 Numbers to Remember

• For Each Gallon of Gas/Diesel consumed

23 lbs CO2 out the tailpipe

• For Each Kwh of Coal Electricity produced

2 - 3 lbs CO2 out the stack
12
Economics
13
Economic Competitiveness

• We were the world leader in Wind now it is
  Europe

• We were the world leader in Photovoltaics now
  it is Japan and Germany

• And, in Lithium Ion batteries, Japan is
  out-designing and China out-producing us

next ??
14
Transfer of Wealth

• U.S. oil imports -- 4.8 billion barrels of 7.6
  billion barrels annual usage. At 100/barrel
  (rough average for 2008)
• 480 billion/year
• (4 of U.S. GDP 15 of annual Fed
  budget)

15
U.S. Energy Consumption
Source Energy Information Administration,
Annual Energy Outlook 2008 (revised early
release), Table 1
16
No One Silver Bullet
We need buckshot -- a portfolio of energy and
efficiency technologies

• Energy efficiency improvements
• Non-polluting transportation fuels
• Capture/storage of CO2 from fossil fuels
• Next generation nuclear power
• Renewable Energy

17
Major DOE National Laboratories
Operated for the U.S. Department of Energy by the
Alliance for Sustainable Energy LLC
Pacific Northwest
Idaho
Brookhaven
Lawrence Berkeley
Argonne
NETL
NREL
Lawrence Livermore
Oak Ridge
Los Alamos
Sandia
Savannah River

• Nuclear Security
• Science
• Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy
• Nuclear Energy
• Fossil Energy
• Environmental Management

18
What Makes NREL Unique?

• Only national laboratory dedicated to renewable
  energy and energy efficiency RD
• Collaboration with industry and university
  partners is a hallmark
• Market-relevant research and development, to
  accelerate commercialization and deployment of
  technologies

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Renewable Energy

• Electricity

Transportation Fuel
Solar Wind Geothermal Water
Biofuels (Hydrogen) (Electricity)
Gasoline
Diesel
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SOLAR
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Solar Energy
Photovoltaics (PV)
Centralized Generation, large-scale or utilities
scale
Concentrating Solar Power (CSP)
Electric Vehicles
Distributed Generation, small or home- scale
Solar Hot Water Heaters
22
PV Energy Status

• USA Current
• 1,200 GW
• 9 / kWh

• Photovoltaics (PV)
• 0.8 GW grid connected capacity
• 18 23 / kWh
• Small systems -- 8,000 / kW
• Cost goals
• 11 - 18 /kWh by 2010
• 5 - 10 /kWh by 2015

23
Advances in PV

• PV RD Focus
• Efficiency (current systems at 15-20)
• 40 -- demonstrated in the lab
• 50 - 60 -- new technologies
• Manufacturability
• Currently built like computer chips
• Need news print-like capability (thin film
  PV)

24
CSP Energy Status

• USA Current
• 1,200 GW
• 9 / kWh

• Concentrating Solar Power (CSP)
• 10 parabolic trough plants
• 0.4 GW capacity
• 12 -14 /kWh
• Cost goals
• 8.5 / kWh by 2010
• 6 / kWh by 2015

25
Solar Energy -- Barriers

• Photovoltaics (PV)
• Cost/Efficiency of solar cell modules
• Manufacturing capability at volume
• Concentrating Solar Power (CSP)
• Advanced reflectors, concentrators, heat
  transfer fluids
• Heat storage for later conversion to
  electricity

26
WIND
27
Evolution of U.S. Wind Energy

• USA Current
• 1,200 GW
• 9 / kWh

28
Wind Energy Status

• USA Current
• 1,200 GW
• 9 / kWh

• Todays Status in U.S.
• 21 GW installed
• Cost 6-9 /kWh, at good wind sites
• U.S. Cost Goals
• 3.6/kWh -- onshore at low wind sites by 2012
• 7/kWh -- offshore in shallow water by 2014

• Long Term Potential
• 20 of the nations electricity supply

With no Production Tax Credit Updated January
23, 2007 Source U.S. Department of Energy,
American Wind Energy Association
29
Wind Energy Status (cont)

• USA Current
• 1,200 GW
• 9 / kWh

• Growing number of wind farms in midwest and west
• Increasing home and business installations
• But, Europe leading the way
• Large turbines (5 MW)
• Off-Shore wind farms

30
Wind Energy Status (cont)

• USA Current
• 1,200 GW
• 9 / kWh

gt 21 GW in 2008
State Total Power Capacities (MW)
Source American Wind Energy Association, Oct
2008
31
Wind Energy -- Barriers

• Transmission lines from good wind regions
• Utility grid integration
• Advanced rotor development
• Improved performance and reliability
• Low Wind Speed Turbines (LWST)
• Off-Shore (corrosion, stability, hurricanes, etc)

32
Geothermal
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Geothermal Power Status

• USA Current
• 1,200 GW
• 9 / kWh

• Todays Status in U.S.
• 2.8 GW installed
• 3.5 GW in progress
• 5-8 /kWh
• Goals
• lt 5 /kWh
• 20 GW by 2020
• Potential
• 100 GW, with Enhanced Geothermal by 2050

34
Geothermal Energy -- Barriers

• Lower temperature conversion technologies
• Advanced materials and lower cost components
• Cheaper drilling techniques
• Analysis to better understand resource locations,
  potential, and best utilization

35
Water Power
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Water Power Status

• USA Current
• 1,200 GW
• 9 / kWh

(Not including large Hydroelectric dams and
electricity production)

• Todays Status in U.S.
• Federal RD just getting started -- 10M in FY08
• Goals
• Being established
• Potential
• gt25 GW by 2025

• Inland Rivers
• Water flow
• Coastal Ocean
• Tide
• Current
• Wave

• Barriers
• Immature technology/RD
• Incentives/subsidies
• Environmental concerns
• New concept

37
Biopower
38
Biopower Status

• USA Current
• 1,200 GW
• 9 / kWh

• Todays Status in U.S.
• 10.5 GW installed
• 5 GW pulp paper
• 2 GW dedicated
• 3 GW waste and landfill gas
• 0.5 GW -- cofiring
• 8-10 /kWh
• Potential
• 4-6 /kWh
• Double GW to grid from cellulosic biorefineries
• USCHPA 100 GW possible

• Barriers
• Use of biomass for fuels
• Policy and incentives

39
President-Elect Obama on Electricity

• Establish a federal Renewable Portfolio Standard
  (RPS) to require 10 of electricity from
  renewables by 2012

• Under a CO2 cap and trade program, will require
  25 of electricity from renewable energy sources
  by 2025
• Extend the renewable energy Production Tax
  Credit (PTC) for 5 years
• Require 30 of the Federal governments
  electricity come from renewable sources by 2020

40
Biofuels
41
U.S. Current Biofuels Status
USA Consumption Gasoline 140 bgy Diesel
60 bgy

• Biodiesel 1
• 176 commercial plants
• 2.6 bgy capacity (2008)
• 0.46 bg produced (2007)
• Corn ethanol 2
• 178 commercial plants
• 11.6 bgy capacity ( 2.2 bgy planned) (2008)
• 6.5 bg produced (2007)
• Cellulosic ethanol (2008)
• 13 demo plants DOE-funded
• .250 bgy capacity projected

bg billion gallons bgy billion gallons per
year
Sources 1- National Biodiesel Board, 2 -
Renewable Fuels Association
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U.S. Fuel Capacity Goals
USA Consumption Gasoline 140 bgy Diesel
60 bgy

• Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) legislation
• 36 billion gallons of renewable fuels
  by 2022

43
Generation 1 -- Corn Ethanol Biodiesel

• 1st generation -- from sugar or starch crops,
  plant oils, or animal fats

Corn
Starch ? Sugar ?Ethanol
Soy Bean
Soy Oil ? Biodiesel
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Generation 1.5 -- Additional Crops

• 1.5 generation -- sugar, starch, and plant oils
  that do not compete significantly for food and
  feed

Cassava
Starch ? Sugar ?Ethanol
Jatropha
Jatropha Oil ? Biodiesel
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Generation 2 -- Cellulosic Ethanol

• 2nd generation -- from cellulosic biomass
  materials, primarily producing ethanol via
  biochemical or thermochemical conversion

Biochemical Intermediates
Biochemical Conversion
Residues
Combined Heat Power
Ethanol co-products
Biomass
Byproducts
Thermochemical Conversion
Chemical Intermediates
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Generation 3 -- New Feedstocks Fuels

• 3rd Generation
• New energy feedstocks, e.g. algae
• Higher energy density
  molecules, via
  thermochemical
  conversion
• Infrastructure-compatible fuels

Upgrading
Gasoline-like Diesel-like
Bio-Oil
- fuels -
Hydrotreating
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Comparing Potential Oil Yields
USA Consumption Gasoline 140 bgy Diesel
60 bgy
Todays Technology Estimate
Optimistic Future Technology
48
Microalgae 3rd Generation Feedstock

• Algae cultivation can utilize
• Marginal, non-arable land
• Saline or brackish water
• Large waste CO2 vent resources (e.g. flue gases
  from coal electricity plants)
• Minimal competition with food, feed, or fiber

49
Biofuels From Microalgae
Petroleum Refinery or Biodiesel Plant
Microalgae
Biodiesel
Green Diesel
Cultivation Ponds
Jet Fuel (Jet A or JP-8)
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Generation 4 -- Systems Biology Advances

• 4th Generation
• Higher energy density molecules, directly from
  organisms
• Crops engineered for self lignocellulosic
  destruction

gasoline
diesel
jet fuel
51
Infrastructure Feedstock Product

• Need innovative thinking to accelerate our
  ability to transport large amounts of biomass and
  new fuels

BiofuelsProduction
BiofuelsDistribution
BiofuelsEnd Use
FeedstockProduction
FeedstockLogistics

52
Biofuels -- Barriers

• Cellulosic Ethanol cost
• Sustainability analysis
• Infrastructure development
• Vehicles/Engines compatibility
• Pick up pace toward Advanced Biofuels

53
President-Elect Obama on Biofuels

• Will invest 150B over 10 years in alternative
  energy sources such as . . the next generation
  of biofuels . . .
• 60 billion gal of advanced biofuels by 2030

• Support the existing Renewable Fuel Standard
  (RFS)
• Establish a National low-carbon fuel standard --
  reduce GHG emissions by 10 by 2020
• Will invest federal resources, including tax
  incentives and government contracts

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Hydrogen Fuel Cells
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Renewable Energy Paths to Hydrogen
Solar Energy
Wind
Photo-voltaics
Photo-biological
Heat
Biomass
Mechanical Energy
Photo-electrochemical
Concentrated Solar Power
Electricity
Thermo-chemical
Bio-chemical
Conversion
Thermolysis
Electrolysis
Photolysis
Hydrogen
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Hydrogen a Second Energy Carrier

• Today, we have one primary carrier Electricity
• We can have a second carrier Hydrogen
• Can be in gaseous, liquid, or combined/absorbed
  form
• Able to store electricity

Energy Sources
End Use
Carriers
Fossil
Heat Light Motion
Nuclear
Renewables
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Wind-to-Hydrogen Project (with Xcel)
2008 H2 Vehicle Fueling Station
H2 Engine
H2 Fuel Cell
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2015 Hydrogen Program Goals
Production
Onboard Storage
Fuel Cell
30/kw 5,000 hrs
2.00 - 3.00/kg(pathway independent)
300 mile range
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Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicle Learning Demo
gt120 Hydrogen Vehicles from 4 Manufacturers
gt16 Hydrogen Stations from 5 Energy Companies
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General Motors Honda

• Project Driveway -- Chevrolet Equinox fuel cell
  vehicles
• 100 vehicles
• Initially NYC, D.C., and Southern California

• FCX Claritys will be leased to Southern
  Californians
• 200 vehicles
• Customer selection process is underway

61
President-Elect Obama on Hydrogen

• Mentioned hydrogen and fuel cells in speeches,
  but energy policy is silent on the topic

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Advanced Vehicle Technologies
63
Vehicle Efficiency Improvements

• Need continued advances in gasoline and diesel
  engines
• Quiz
• In anticipation of increased electric drive
  vehicles, need ancillary load reductions

Human Thermal Comfort Empirical Model
Human Thermal Physiological Model
Thermal Testing in Vehicles
64
Ethanol Intermediate Blends

• To absorb the ethanol capacities mandated by the
  RFS, probably need
• E10 E15/20
• What we need to get there
• Vehicle/engine testing
• Address SNRE issues

65
Electric Drive Vehicles

• Its all about Energy Storage (batteries, or
  other electrical storage methods)
• Lithium Ion battery challenges for Vehicles
• Safety
• Performance
• Durability
• Cost

Batteries
GM Volt
EnergyCS lithium ion battery pack in Prius PHEV
conversion
EEStor -- barium titanate powder ultracapacitor
called the EESU, 52 kwh, 336 pound package
UltraCaps
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Recharging Infrastructure

• Recharging we need to address
• Public and work access, not just home
• Using renewable electricity
• Cordless, on-the-move capability

NREL Prius PHEV Conversion
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A Portfolio of Transportation Technologies
68
President-Elect Obama on Vehicles

• Will invest 150B over 10 years in alternative
  energy sources such as . . the commercialization
  of PHEVs . . .
• Put 1 million PHEVs on road by 2015 (gt 150 mpg)
• Mandate all new cars to be Flex Fuel Vehicles
  (FFVs) by end of first term
• Increase fuel economy standards 4 per year

69
Past RD Investments Have Reduced Costs
2008
70
U.S. Energy RD Investment
71
Accelerating the Speed and Scale
U.S. Renewable Electricity Installed Nameplate
Capacity
Sources Chalk, AWEA, IEA, NREL, EIA, GEA
72
Towards National Goals
Electricity
Fuels

• Ethanol Cost Goal
• Cellulosic ethanol cost competitive by 2012

Gigawatt-Scale Renewables

• Solar Goal
• - PV cost of electricity parity by 2015
• - 10 U.S. wind electricity by 2025

• Battery Initiative
• 40 mile all electric range for PHEVs

• Hydrogen Fuel Initiative
• - Technology Readiness by 2015
• - FCVs in showrooms by 2020

• Wind Vision
• 20 U.S. wind electricity by 2030

• Presidents 20-in-10
• 35 billion gallons of alternative fuels by 2017

• State RPS Goals
• Renewable electricity capacities

• Energy Independence Security Act 2007
• 36 billion gallons of renewable fuels by 2022

• Buildings
• Net-Zero Energy at low incremental cost by 2025

• DOE 30x30 Goal
• 60 billion gallons of ethanol by 2030

73
State Policy Framework
Renewable Portfolio Standards
Source DSIRE database, March 2008
74
Global Renewable Electricity Capacity
Developing World, EU, and Top Six Countries, 2006
Gigawatts
75
Global New Investment in Clean Energy
1 of global fixed asset investment
10.5 of global energy industry infrastructure
investment
2.5 times the size of commercial aircraft
investment sector
Source New Energy Finance, IMF WEO Database, IEA
WEO 2007, Boeing 2006 Annual Report
Adjusted for reinvestment. Geared re-investment
assumes a 1 year lag between VC/PE/Public Markets
funds raised and re-investment in projects.
76
Sustainability the Key

• . . . providing what we need today, while
  preserving the resources and environment for
  future generations . . .
• Renewable does not automatically mean
  Sustainable we must consider
• Land use
• Water impacts
• Soil effects
• Atmospheric impacts
• Wildlife and plant interactions
• Effects of food and other life necessities
• Social impacts
• Indirect effects

.
.
.
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Summary

• The 21st Century will be known for solving, or
  not, the Global energy problem

• Sustainability must be the criterion on which
  we make our decisions

• We need universal energy/efficiency
  education and awareness

• And, you are part of the solution
• in your personal lives and choices
• by demanding that Government, Industry, and the
  Public do not waiver from the goals

78
Thank You
The U.S. Department of
Energys National Renewable Energy
Laboratory www.nrel.gov
Golden, Colorado